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Kenya Economy Watch
Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/20/2011 Posts: 1,820 Location: Nakuru
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Mainat wrote:-Land near urban areas
-housing
-commercial agriculture
-NSE, but you need to be selective since parastatals will only ever get good if GoK is not corrupt or tribal-based
Thanks for the heads up Dumb money becomes dumb only when it listens to smart money
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Business Daily wrote:After a 26-year break, the Republic of Ireland reopened its mission in Kenya late last year. The Business Daily’s George Ngigi spoke to the ambassador Vincent O’Neill on the vision behind Dublin’s renewed interest in Nairobi. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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KENYA'S FINANCE MINISTER TELLS REUTERS DRAFT LAW FOR PLANNED NAIROBI FINANCIAL CENTRE TO BE READY IN 3 MONTHS"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The 2014 KE econ report card by kNBS reveals how tough the macroecon environment was. Thus the several profit warnings. With 2015 macros looking poised to worsen as being signalled by the KES weakness, it's advisable for equity investor to start building defensive portfolios before the storm lands. The upcoming expansionary national budget will likely weaken KES further and spike inflation. Will CBR be hiked? The worst scenario would be a CBR hike and a FED hike. If those 2 combine the market will become very defensive (strong bear). http://mobile.nation.co....-/154r1q1z/-/index.html
http://www.businessdaily...6/-/3db7pm/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:The 2014 KE econ report card by kNBS reveals how tough the macroecon environment was. Thus the several profit warnings. With 2015 macros looking poised to worsen as being signalled by the KES weakness, it's advisable for equity investor to start building defensive portfolios before the storm lands. The upcoming expansionary national budget will likely weaken KES further and spike inflation. Will CBR be hiked? The worst scenario would be a CBR hike and a FED hike. If those 2 combine the market will become very defensive (strong bear). http://mobile.nation.co....-/154r1q1z/-/index.html
http://www.businessdaily...6/-/3db7pm/-/index.html
Where to 'hide' the money?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. The global trade currency is the $. Current account deficit is very sensitive to KES weakness vs $. Dollar reserves are finite unless you can print the $ which CBK can't. This is why I state if $KES rate becomes volatile CBK will be forced to hike CBR. That will make liquidity tight and spike interest rates both deposits and loans and pull the handbrake on the econ. For an econ already on a slump as per those KNBS statistics, a CBR hike will be a nasty curveball.
The proposed budget is expansionary, but KES weakness might just pour cold water to that stimulus. A tricky delicate balance for treasury.
@mukiri - 8% dividend yield or better if you plan to stay put in risky assets as well as NAV discounts (fat tails)as equities price dips. Equities trading close to NAV ride out the storm best. Fixed income (tbills, fixed deposits etc) too offers nice returns of 10% and above when risky assets get clobbered. If not sure what to do just keep your cash. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,301 Location: kenya
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. The global trade currency is the $. Current account deficit is very sensitive to KES weakness vs $. Dollar reserves are finite unless you can print the $ which CBK can't. This is why I state if $KES rate becomes volatile CBK will be forced to hike CBR. That will make liquidity tight and spike interest rates both deposits and loans and pull the handbrake on the econ. For an econ already on a slump as per those KNBS statistics, a CBR hike will be a nasty curveball.
The proposed budget is expansionary, but KES weakness might just pour cold water to that stimulus. A tricky delicate balance for treasury.
@mukiri - 8% dividend yield or better if you plan to stay put in risky assets as well as NAV discounts (fat tails)as equities price dips. Equities trading close to NAV ride out the storm best. Fixed income (tbills, fixed deposits etc) too offers nice returns of 10% and above when risky assets get clobbered. If not sure what to do just keep your cash. Too technical to understand for wanjiku like me but I get the last part ."keep your cash and be cautious because it's going to tight on economy ." Thanks hisa
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Paradox...Is the shilling weakening? How is the shilling doing when measured against the Yen, Euro, RMB? The dollar is strengthening ... against all currencies. The global trade currency is the $. Current account deficit is very sensitive to KES weakness vs $. Dollar reserves are finite unless you can print the $ which CBK can't. This is why I state if $KES rate becomes volatile CBK will be forced to hike CBR. That will make liquidity tight and spike interest rates both deposits and loans and pull the handbrake on the econ. For an econ already on a slump as per those KNBS statistics, a CBR hike will be a nasty curveball.
The proposed budget is expansionary, but KES weakness might just pour cold water to that stimulus. A tricky delicate balance for treasury.
@mukiri - 8% dividend yield or better if you plan to stay put in risky assets as well as NAV discounts (fat tails)as equities price dips. Equities trading close to NAV ride out the storm best. Fixed income (tbills, fixed deposits etc) too offers nice returns of 10% and above when risky assets get clobbered. If not sure what to do just keep your cash. Given that the USD is the global medium of exchange and its bound continue strengthening in the foreseeable future, don't you think the status quo (weak Ksh vs USD) remains up until we reduce our imports and boost our exports...bring in more tourists...or pump out that crude and start selling it...am seeing 100 hitting before Dec 2015. CBR hike will be nasty indeed. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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$KES breaks above 95 handle.If KES crashes past 100 to the USD, bulls will start feeling the bear strength as finally the bargains period makes a comeback. Been a while since those fat tail discounts last popped up - value investors heaven. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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