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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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hisah
#331 Posted : Friday, April 17, 2015 9:24:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Strong rejection @5500 level as expected. Still a solid multi year barrier with NSE20 now clocking a 5 week losing streak enroute to test the 5000 handle. Waiting to see if former multi-year resistance will offer support. Support buffer is cluster between 4900 - 5050 level. Below there down to 4700.

When the 4yr rising wedge is broken downwards, bears will be in the driving seat.



NSE20 enroute to close in the red 6 weeks in a row! You have to go back to Q2 2012 to spot this losing streak in weekly cartoon! On the monthly cartoon, if April closes in the red that will be a 2 month sellside trend.

Should the above rising wedge break down hard, the entire 2013/2014 gains risk reversal. Keep an eye on this. While break above up rising trendline will open a retest of 6000 level last seen in 2007.

NSE20 closed below 5100 level yesterday @5076. Heading for week 7 in red. Wow! The losing streak is relentless while the strong bear is still not in town!?

@mnandii - as expected the banks have drenched boots with insurance also donned the same.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, April 17, 2015 9:29 AM | Reason: Not specified
Aardwolf
#332 Posted : Monday, April 20, 2015 11:19:17 AM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 4/20/2015
Posts: 8
Admittedly, this is a steep learning curve for me but I hope to gain some knowledge. I have tried to assimilate as much as I can about the Elliot Wave but all I can deduce is that this is not the right time to invest in stocks at the NSE. Is that right?Sad . Analysis by @mnadii suggest the bear is about to get loose and I was about to flex muscle as a first time investor. Should I stay out of the stock market for now?

My employer is about to pay me significant arrears from the year 2012, and I was considering joining the fray. I am keen not to create "pressure cooker" atmospheres for myself watching my portfolio plummet just like @mnadii foresees.Sad
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mkonomtupu
#333 Posted : Monday, April 20, 2015 12:36:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Aardwolf wrote:
Admittedly, this is a steep learning curve for me but I hope to gain some knowledge. I have tried to assimilate as much as I can about the Elliot Wave but all I can deduce is that this is not the right time to invest in stocks at the NSE. Is that right?Sad . Analysis by @mnadii suggest the bear is about to get loose and I was about to flex muscle as a first time investor. Should I stay out of the stock market for now?

My employer is about to pay me significant arrears from the year 2012, and I was considering joining the fray. I am keen not to create "pressure cooker" atmospheres for myself watching my portfolio plummet just like @mnadii foresees.Sad


Karibu wazua. You will finds bulls, bears, chickens and pigs in here.

In the market the bulls make money, bears make money, chickens stay put and the pigs get slaughtered. This statement will help you more than the Elliot wave
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S.Mutaga III
#334 Posted : Monday, April 20, 2015 2:04:46 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
mkonomtupu wrote:
Aardwolf wrote:
Admittedly, this is a steep learning curve for me but I hope to gain some knowledge. I have tried to assimilate as much as I can about the Elliot Wave but all I can deduce is that this is not the right time to invest in stocks at the NSE. Is that right?Sad . Analysis by @mnadii suggest the bear is about to get loose and I was about to flex muscle as a first time investor. Should I stay out of the stock market for now?

My employer is about to pay me significant arrears from the year 2012, and I was considering joining the fray. I am keen not to create "pressure cooker" atmospheres for myself watching my portfolio plummet just like @mnadii foresees.Sad


Karibu wazua. You will finds bulls, bears, chickens and pigs in here.

In the market the bulls make money, bears make money, chickens stay put and the pigs get slaughtered. This statement will help you more than the Elliot wave

I want the bear back because its the only way that I will get blue chips with good dividend yields at rock bottom prices. I am getting bored with the little opportunities present. With a bear market, you get spoilt for choice as stocks hit new lows
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
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mkonomtupu
#335 Posted : Monday, April 20, 2015 2:51:24 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
If you are watching the bear then keep an eye on the china economy. Scary stuff out there and they are still doing stimulus with reserve cuts Pray Pray Pray

Quote:
Of course, plenty of people will dismiss that as just another bubble. Some of the statistics are certainly pretty scary. Deutsche Bank points out that there are school uniform and ketchup manufacturers trading on 300-times earnings. China’s technology stocks are trading at twice the levels of American ones at the peak of the dotcom boom. Almost one in five stocks is on a PE ratio of more than 100. That is probably crazy. The Chinese are inveterate gamblers, who seem to think the stock market should basically be a casino, so it would hardly be surprising if the mania for equities got out of control. Parts of the market may already be there.


http://www.telegraph.co....l-change-the-world.html

Quote:
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) reduced the amount of money banks must set aside as reserves by one percentage point in a bid to spur more lending.
The announcement on Sunday came in the wake of data showing the country grew at its slowest pace in six years.
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hisah
#336 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 6:48:07 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
1yr NSE20 just for visuals @sparkly, SPT, mnandii. Bull strength running out of time!

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#337 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 9:10:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
This current 400pt retracement,as seen above, looks to have little resistance unlike the 500pt one between Sept 2014 to Jan 2015 signaling buyer fatigue/buyers getting overpowered by sellers .
@SufficientlyP
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sparkly
#338 Posted : Sunday, April 26, 2015 8:49:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
hisah wrote:
1yr NSE20 just for visuals @sparkly, SPT, mnandii. Bull strength running out of time!



We need a rebound to 5300 like yesterday. If it doesn't happen, market is in trouble!!!
Life is short. Live passionately.
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hisah
#339 Posted : Sunday, April 26, 2015 9:06:58 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Week 8 closed in the red for NSE20. Two consecutive sellside months.

@sparkly - Indeed if we can't regain 5300 the selling pressure will start piling up!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#340 Posted : Thursday, May 07, 2015 8:02:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Safaricom share price is ripe for a fall.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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