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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
Paul Owuor
#101 Posted : Tuesday, April 14, 2015 3:20:51 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 7/3/2011
Posts: 30
Location: Nairobi
Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Fyatu wrote:
wake me up when the slaughter begins

hahaha
I used to be a pig but I am now a bull-bear hybrid.
hisah
#102 Posted : Tuesday, April 14, 2015 3:36:58 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
hisah wrote:
Gatheuzi wrote:
hisah wrote:
TheGeek wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
@ Geek..very interesting picks.I like the volume spike on Scan Group.

Please have the RSI column of Scan group in the chart!!



Done.

I've placed by bet on scan.

Welcome aboard!

I had loaded up in Feb then in March the EXP merger deal collapsed. That was a nasty surprise to my expectations as it was a major part of the investment equation. I've been selling since Mar 12. The illiquid conditions in this counter make selling or buying such a pain.


There's blood on the streets. No one is saying it, but there's alot of blood letting going on... Like you had said, shares are taking a beating, Lets hope its a correction not the bear coming in

Until that 4yr rising wedge is broken down, this is just a correction. A bear will be obvious since mpesa bank will also be heavily bent down during that phase.

USDKES > 100 is the line in the sand.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
murchr
#103 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 2:19:39 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle...



Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited!



Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far!



I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs.






Interesting .... waiting for the lessons. smile



Sept 2014
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#104 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 3:20:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
dunkang wrote:
hisah wrote:
I started the bottomed out thread on July 13, 2011 when the market was skidding with no brakes and felt endless.

You are on the right track about topping out if you read the bottomed out 1st post.

I have been bearish this market since Nov 2013 while the market has continued to meltup. I closely follow Mpesa bank and it has proved to be a reliable signal since its IPO debut. The likes of @mukiri has been throwing stones at me for being the party spoiler with my never appearing sizable market selloff. False prophesy etc smile

NSE20 has the buying climax symptoms across many counters. When crappy stocks (very small caps) rally on endless price gaps on small volume, the market has run out of quality picks!

@hisa, you have been singing this climax song for soooo looong, remember you sold SafCom at 5.80/-, didn't you?

I dare say, lets throw away all the valuation b.s and swim with the tide!!!

True but remember, the trend is your friend except at the end when it bends - Ed Seykota
And we could be right at the end of that trend.Yesterday's NSE close of 5406 could as well be the top. Today, we were down 29 points. The top will be confirmed by week close. Watch out for the divergence, what @Hisah calls price gaps which have to be filled. Don't write him off as yet.
As i finish, most of this bull run you are seeing has been due to foreign buys. When the FED ups its cbr from 0.25 by mid June next year, the correction will be one to watch!
Locally, CBK has begun the excess liquidity mop up to tame the KES pressure. Higher interest rates are on the way. A shift to fixed income will follow.
#Staytuned


Britam is -50% to date from Monday Sept 22nd highs.
#shackles
@SufficientlyP
Ericsson
#105 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 3:30:58 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,808
Location: NAIROBI
Next week it will be down 90%
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
lochaz-index
#106 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 5:19:08 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
The lessons are coming in thick and fast with britam leading the slaughter fest... Safcom, kcb and eabl are papering over the cracks across other counters otherwise this correction should be a lot more entertaining...like centum @40
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
murchr
#107 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 5:24:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
lochaz-index wrote:
The lessons are coming in thick and fast with britam leading the slaughter fest... Safcom, kcb and eabl are papering over the cracks across other counters otherwise this correction should be a lot more entertaining...like centum @40


Waiting to see who has been swimming naked smile
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
mmmakau
#108 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 6:47:49 PM
Rank: Hello

Joined: 2/4/2014
Posts: 2
centum @40............not likely
hisah
#109 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 7:20:38 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mmmakau wrote:
centum @40............not likely

Have you experienced a strong bear market before? Don't under estimate mr market when he's in a bad selling mood. Just like in a strong bull all caution is thrown out the window as the market ignores fundamentals. The same happens in a strong bear as stocks get unbelievably undervalued.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
The optimist
#110 Posted : Wednesday, April 22, 2015 7:36:06 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
And where is guru?

Madan has been MIA for quite sometime.
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