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Garissa university attack.
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/9/2008 Posts: 5,389
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limanika wrote:tycho wrote:limanika wrote:tycho wrote:I realize that some of us are deeply interested if not involved with security matters, and mostly intelligence. I have been interested in these matters also.
So, I'd like to ask a question that has been in my mind. . .
What would make the al Shabaab claim that it's going to be 'a long and gruesome war'? The war lords and somali businessmen, many in Kenya and many in Somalia used to benefit from access to kismayu and piracy. The moment KDF captured kismayo, their fortunes all but dwidled. Those in Kenya who were rich have sons who have seen their family fortunes change overnight. They remember the 'good old days' with nolstagia, and also know one thing..only KDF stands in their way back to those days. Hence, they just need KDF to withdraw, they can easily deal with Somali army. Since we have snatched their bread and butter, hence the statement. It means things will get worse so long as we stay in somalia. Sometimes I wonder, if we withdraw, won't these shabaab be too busy fighting amongst themselves, and then international community finds ways of dealing with piracy? I get your point. In a sense it seems like you've translated what they've said explicitly. But here they are also talking about at least, how they'd like to perceive this war, and for practical reasons how they perceive this war. This is about strategy, tactics and the emergent situation ... you get my drift? On strategy the shabab is using, it is contradictory and utter nonsense - for instance, they say they are attacking kenya because 'our troops are in somalia', but when attacking they spare muslims...does it mean it is only bad for non-muslims to be in N.E when our troops are in somalia? And aren't there sections of koran that can be quoted even in the media to dissuade the radicalised youth? i wonder why the govt and muslim leaders are not employing 'propagada' to win back the hearts of the young ones who are being radicalised It is religious cleansing going on under the guise of al shabab and kenya's presence in somalia. That is why churches, buses, hotels, university etc have been attacked and non muslims slaughtered. The attacks are carried out by kenyan youths. If it was a war between kenya and alshabab (for invading their country somalia), then kenyans would have been attacked indiscriminately, not being profiled by being asked to recite the koran, and then shot in the head.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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limanika wrote:whiteowl wrote:limanika wrote:tycho wrote:I realize that some of us are deeply interested if not involved with security matters, and mostly intelligence. I have been interested in these matters also.
So, I'd like to ask a question that has been in my mind. . .
What would make the al Shabaab claim that it's going to be 'a long and gruesome war'? The war lords and somali businessmen, many in Kenya and many in Somalia used to benefit from access to kismayu and piracy. The moment KDF captured kismayo, their fortunes all but dwidled. Those in Kenya who were rich have sons who have seen their family fortunes change overnight. They remember the 'good old days' with nolstagia, and also know one thing..only KDF stands in their way back to those days. Hence, they just need KDF to withdraw, they can easily deal with Somali army. Since we have snatched their bread and butter, hence the statement. It means things will get worse so long as we stay in somalia. Sometimes I wonder, if we withdraw, won't these shabaab be too busy fighting amongst themselves, and then international community finds ways of dealing with piracy? Before KDF went to Somalia, pirates were having a field day hijacking vessels so I can't support withdrawing troops before there is a stable govt. Cost of business at the mombasa post had gone up n insurance premium for cargo had gone up.The only people that had an upper hand were people importing goods through Kismayu though that meant they were bankrolling AS. Like a certain governer who imported tonnes of sugar, repackaged n sold it n declared magical profits year on year.There are at least two other companies I know that did the same.On another twist, some powers that be don't want Somali to be stable coz it poses great economic threat to Kenya. They have a massive coastline that would render mombasa n Lamu ports almost irrelevant. Nobody has said the problems will end overnight when we withdraw. Since Ethiopia seems to be safe, why not for instance ask them to take over the sourthern sections and we leave it to them. In a nutshell, because of our system failures / clueless agencies, kenya will suffer in both cases, whether our troops are in somalia or not. But since we are not able/willing to employ the correct counter terrorism measures, kenya will have more problems when the troops remain in somalia. It is a case of choosing the 'lesser evil' There's a reason why people don't negotiate with terrorists. Give them an arm, they'll want a leg. Get those war lords and businessmen you are talking about, and 'withdraw' them. See if their minions want to emulate them anymore.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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limanika wrote:tycho wrote:limanika wrote:tycho wrote:I realize that some of us are deeply interested if not involved with security matters, and mostly intelligence. I have been interested in these matters also.
So, I'd like to ask a question that has been in my mind. . .
What would make the al Shabaab claim that it's going to be 'a long and gruesome war'? The war lords and somali businessmen, many in Kenya and many in Somalia used to benefit from access to kismayu and piracy. The moment KDF captured kismayo, their fortunes all but dwidled. Those in Kenya who were rich have sons who have seen their family fortunes change overnight. They remember the 'good old days' with nolstagia, and also know one thing..only KDF stands in their way back to those days. Hence, they just need KDF to withdraw, they can easily deal with Somali army. Since we have snatched their bread and butter, hence the statement. It means things will get worse so long as we stay in somalia. Sometimes I wonder, if we withdraw, won't these shabaab be too busy fighting amongst themselves, and then international community finds ways of dealing with piracy? I get your point. In a sense it seems like you've translated what they've said explicitly. But here they are also talking about at least, how they'd like to perceive this war, and for practical reasons how they perceive this war. This is about strategy, tactics and the emergent situation ... you get my drift? On strategy the shabab is using, it is contradictory and utter nonsense - for instance, they say they are attacking kenya because 'our troops are in somalia', but when attacking they spare muslims...does it mean it is only bad for non-muslims to be in N.E when our troops are in somalia? And aren't there sections of koran that can be quoted even in the media to dissuade the radicalised youth? i wonder why the govt and muslim leaders are not employing 'propagada' to win back the hearts of the young ones who are being radicalised Normally, it's when we see others as 'nonesensical' and 'contradictory' that we miss the point and fail to come up with effective solutions. Actually that's why the government hasn't come up with the propaganda you're wondering about. We can't see the al Shabaab mind clearly. Consequently, we can't think ahead or behave unpredictably hence, the al Shabaab can predict how the war will look like, and as the posts here show, we'll prove them right.
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Rank: User Joined: 8/15/2013 Posts: 13,237 Location: Vacuum
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maka wrote:Shak wrote:Why are our lawyers developing murderous tendencies? First it was Paul Magu and now this boy! 2 out of around 11 or so thousand. Maka should be placed under surveillance If Obiero did it, Who Am I?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/10/2008 Posts: 9,131 Location: Kanjo
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Some of these things make me very angry. http://mobile.nation.co....l/-/goqrq9z/-/index.htmli.am.back!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Mukiri wrote:limanika wrote:whiteowl wrote:limanika wrote:tycho wrote:I realize that some of us are deeply interested if not involved with security matters, and mostly intelligence. I have been interested in these matters also.
So, I'd like to ask a question that has been in my mind. . .
What would make the al Shabaab claim that it's going to be 'a long and gruesome war'? The war lords and somali businessmen, many in Kenya and many in Somalia used to benefit from access to kismayu and piracy. The moment KDF captured kismayo, their fortunes all but dwidled. Those in Kenya who were rich have sons who have seen their family fortunes change overnight. They remember the 'good old days' with nolstagia, and also know one thing..only KDF stands in their way back to those days. Hence, they just need KDF to withdraw, they can easily deal with Somali army. Since we have snatched their bread and butter, hence the statement. It means things will get worse so long as we stay in somalia. Sometimes I wonder, if we withdraw, won't these shabaab be too busy fighting amongst themselves, and then international community finds ways of dealing with piracy? Before KDF went to Somalia, pirates were having a field day hijacking vessels so I can't support withdrawing troops before there is a stable govt. Cost of business at the mombasa post had gone up n insurance premium for cargo had gone up.The only people that had an upper hand were people importing goods through Kismayu though that meant they were bankrolling AS. Like a certain governer who imported tonnes of sugar, repackaged n sold it n declared magical profits year on year.There are at least two other companies I know that did the same.On another twist, some powers that be don't want Somali to be stable coz it poses great economic threat to Kenya. They have a massive coastline that would render mombasa n Lamu ports almost irrelevant. Nobody has said the problems will end overnight when we withdraw. Since Ethiopia seems to be safe, why not for instance ask them to take over the sourthern sections and we leave it to them. In a nutshell, because of our system failures / clueless agencies, kenya will suffer in both cases, whether our troops are in somalia or not. But since we are not able/willing to employ the correct counter terrorism measures, kenya will have more problems when the troops remain in somalia. It is a case of choosing the 'lesser evil' There's a reason why people don't negotiate with terrorists. Give them an arm, they'll want a leg. Get those war lords and businessmen you are talking about, and 'withdraw' them. See if their minions want to emulate them anymore. When a listed company and a leading supermarket were the top customers of Kismayu port,then that should tell you KDF is in Somalia to clean our own mess.Troops withdrawal calls are based on the notion that the AS threat originates from Somalia. We've all been supporting AS knowingly or otherwise. Even if you go through the top 10 financiers/customers of kismayu of AS are all Kenyans n most aren't Muslims. Those businessmen in Eastleigh are just poster boys.I only know of one businessman who was dealt with but the rest are roaming free. Then again in the long-term, there is the risk of such militants curving out a portion of our country if left to grow.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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We need gun laws that are friendly to the citizens. Like most if not all citizens of majority age should be able to own and use a gun effectively. This may mean a change in politics, but I suspect it's the change we've yearned for.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/9/2008 Posts: 5,389
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Someone does the job he's been employed (and paid) to do and then goes demanding extra allowances? Should a govt doctor be paid an extra allowance every time he successfully treats a patient?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/5/2010 Posts: 2,459
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maka wrote:Mukiri wrote:Rahatupu wrote:Lolest! wrote:streetwise wrote:You are spot on. Use same or worse methods like the enemy. Why did mugiki subside their activities. Was it because many of them were jailed ? kill and bury them.hakuna kupatikana! But something still stinks on the response. Paathetic @Lolest, For those comparing Ke with Ethiopia and Uganda, the law there does not favour the suspects unlike here where they know they have rights and bond is one of the rights. Mutua will ventilate and say even the scam of the earth have rights. Uncle Sam saw this and invented Guantanamo and water bording. Copy cat Ke has the most progressive constitution. I say it here again, @alma and @alphdoti, kill the idiots and smoke them out let them disappear without trace, the blood of 148 must be avenged with more vegence than they can contenance. The best defence against AS remains preemptive action again st them way before they strike. Like a Garissa resident said no law for the lawless, let's have their flesh for breakfast lunch and dinner. Charity begins at home. Here in Wazua First fix the security apparatus then work on elimination...doing the latter without working on the former will just lead to more bodies... @maka, I like your point. To quote legendary mossad director, Meir dagan, the dirtiest of actions must be executed by the most honest of men. But the war on terror needs to get dirty and messy. Did the family of the law graduate turned terrorist know their son had converted to alshabab ? Perhaps if his siblings "disappear" without trace, then parents whose kids are joining AS will start talking. But let's not repeat the clumsy way it was done by michuki. Remember one of the cops in-charge of the mungiki operation was later executed by his own colleagues in kitui.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/17/2013 Posts: 4,693 Location: Earth
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Kenya will not be intimidated,we will deal with them,bla bla bla bla,yada ,yada,yada,yada, ilete baraka kwetu.
Just when shall we act?
Get out of somalia,move those camps to somalia,clear our estates,revoke wrongly issued ID's, move madrassas to mosques instead of rental houses, just do something now,not tomorrow,anything that will make us believe you are serious.
A student is dead,a family is shattered,a trainee terrorist awaits new instructions and a goverment official is preparing his next anthem.
Will you or your family be next ?
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