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Garissa university attack.
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/21/2011 Posts: 2,032
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tycho wrote:I realize that some of us are deeply interested if not involved with security matters, and mostly intelligence. I have been interested in these matters also.
So, I'd like to ask a question that has been in my mind. . .
What would make the al Shabaab claim that it's going to be 'a long and gruesome war'? The war lords and somali businessmen, many in Kenya and many in Somalia used to benefit from access to kismayu and piracy. The moment KDF captured kismayo, their fortunes all but dwidled. Those in Kenya who were rich have sons who have seen their family fortunes change overnight. They remember the 'good old days' with nolstagia, and also know one thing..only KDF stands in their way back to those days. Hence, they just need KDF to withdraw, they can easily deal with Somali army. Since we have snatched their bread and butter, hence the statement. It means things will get worse so long as we stay in somalia. Sometimes I wonder, if we withdraw, won't these shabaab be too busy fighting amongst themselves, and then international community finds ways of dealing with piracy?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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limanika wrote:tycho wrote:I realize that some of us are deeply interested if not involved with security matters, and mostly intelligence. I have been interested in these matters also.
So, I'd like to ask a question that has been in my mind. . .
What would make the al Shabaab claim that it's going to be 'a long and gruesome war'? The war lords and somali businessmen, many in Kenya and many in Somalia used to benefit from access to kismayu and piracy. The moment KDF captured kismayo, their fortunes all but dwidled. Those in Kenya who were rich have sons who have seen their family fortunes change overnight. They remember the 'good old days' with nolstagia, and also know one thing..only KDF stands in their way back to those days. Hence, they just need KDF to withdraw, they can easily deal with Somali army. Since we have snatched their bread and butter, hence the statement. It means things will get worse so long as we stay in somalia. Sometimes I wonder, if we withdraw, won't these shabaab be too busy fighting amongst themselves, and then international community finds ways of dealing with piracy? I get your point. In a sense it seems like you've translated what they've said explicitly. But here they are also talking about at least, how they'd like to perceive this war, and for practical reasons how they perceive this war. This is about strategy, tactics and the emergent situation ... you get my drift?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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C & P THIS IS WHY MUSLIM TERRORISTS DON'T KIDNAP RUSSIANS. Jan 6 ,1986 ~JERUSALEM — The KGB has adopted novel, brutal and apparently effective methods of dealing with terrorists who attack Soviet interests in the Middle East, an Israeli newspaper reported Monday. The Jerusalem Post said the Soviet secret police last year secured the release of three kidnaped Soviet diplomats in Beirut by castrating a relative of a radical Lebanese Shia Muslim leader, sending him the severed organs and then shooting the relative in the head. The incident began when four Soviet diplomats were kidnaped last September by Muslim extremists who demanded that Moscow pressure the Syrian government to stop pro-Syrian militiamen from shelling rival Muslim positions in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli. The militiamen, the Jerusalem paper said, did not cease their attacks, and the body of one of the Soviet diplomats, Arkady Katkov, was found a few days later in a field in Beirut. The KGB then apparently kidnaped and killed a relative of an unnamed leader of the Shias' Hezbollah (Party of God) group, a radical, pro-Iranian group that has been suspected of various terrorist activities against Western targets in Lebanon. Parts of the man's body, the paper said, were then sent to the Hezbollah leader with a warning that he would lose other relatives in a similar fashion if the three remaining Soviet diplomats were not immediately released. They were quickly freed. The newspaper quoted "observers in Jerusalem" as saying: "This is the way the Soviets operate. They do things--they don't talk. And this is the language Hezbollah understands." LA times
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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You are spot on. Use same or worse methods like the enemy. Why did mugiki subside their activities. Was it because many of them were jailed ?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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limanika wrote:tycho wrote:I realize that some of us are deeply interested if not involved with security matters, and mostly intelligence. I have been interested in these matters also.
So, I'd like to ask a question that has been in my mind. . .
What would make the al Shabaab claim that it's going to be 'a long and gruesome war'? The war lords and somali businessmen, many in Kenya and many in Somalia used to benefit from access to kismayu and piracy. The moment KDF captured kismayo, their fortunes all but dwidled. Those in Kenya who were rich have sons who have seen their family fortunes change overnight. They remember the 'good old days' with nolstagia, and also know one thing..only KDF stands in their way back to those days. Hence, they just need KDF to withdraw, they can easily deal with Somali army. Since we have snatched their bread and butter, hence the statement. It means things will get worse so long as we stay in somalia. Sometimes I wonder, if we withdraw, won't these shabaab be too busy fighting amongst themselves, and then international community finds ways of dealing with piracy? Before KDF went to Somalia, pirates were having a field day hijacking vessels so I can't support withdrawing troops before there is a stable govt. Cost of business at the mombasa post had gone up n insurance premium for cargo had gone up.The only people that had an upper hand were people importing goods through Kismayu though that meant they were bankrolling AS. Like a certain governer who imported tonnes of sugar, repackaged n sold it n declared magical profits year on year.There are at least two other companies I know that did the same.On another twist, some powers that be don't want Somali to be stable coz it poses great economic threat to Kenya. They have a massive coastline that would render mombasa n Lamu ports almost irrelevant.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/17/2013 Posts: 4,693 Location: Earth
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Bungled operation- NTV.
No further words.
During westgate a bull was slaughtered and promises made to Reece. When Garissa happened,Reece came by road arriving late afternoon. Massacre had been going on since morning,that's an average of 16 students/hr from 5am to 3pm. They had 4 good min to interrogate and kill each student till Reece arrived. All this time,our soldiers were keeping vigil outside the fence.
My popcorn is tasteless.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/1/2011 Posts: 8,804 Location: Nairobi
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Kenyan thinking is the greatest security threat.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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kysse wrote:Bungled operation- NTV.
No further words.
I wonder why our leaders feel they have to be the first on the scene, how did they help? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/1/2008 Posts: 323
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Mukiri wrote:C & P
THIS IS WHY MUSLIM TERRORISTS DON'T KIDNAP RUSSIANS. Jan 6 ,1986 ~JERUSALEM — The KGB has adopted novel, brutal and apparently effective methods of dealing with terrorists who attack Soviet interests in the Middle East, an Israeli newspaper reported Monday. The Jerusalem Post said the Soviet secret police last year secured the release of three kidnaped Soviet diplomats in Beirut by castrating a relative of a radical Lebanese Shia Muslim leader, sending him the severed organs and then shooting the relative in the head. The incident began when four Soviet diplomats were kidnaped last September by Muslim extremists who demanded that Moscow pressure the Syrian government to stop pro-Syrian militiamen from shelling rival Muslim positions in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli. The militiamen, the Jerusalem paper said, did not cease their attacks, and the body of one of the Soviet diplomats, Arkady Katkov, was found a few days later in a field in Beirut. The KGB then apparently kidnaped and killed a relative of an unnamed leader of the Shias' Hezbollah (Party of God) group, a radical, pro-Iranian group that has been suspected of various terrorist activities against Western targets in Lebanon. Parts of the man's body, the paper said, were then sent to the Hezbollah leader with a warning that he would lose other relatives in a similar fashion if the three remaining Soviet diplomats were not immediately released. They were quickly freed. The newspaper quoted "observers in Jerusalem" as saying: "This is the way the Soviets operate. They do things--they don't talk. And this is the language Hezbollah understands." LA times what are you saying?  though i like your thinking
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Rank: Elder Joined: 3/18/2011 Posts: 12,069 Location: Kianjokoma
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AlphDoti wrote:limanika wrote:The other strategy used by MO1 is he had 3 basic chain sources if Intel. There was provincial administration, special branch and then some informal structure right from the village. This latter one was headed by Hezekiah oyugi at some point.At village level there was a chief, then headman(chiefs asstnt) and someone called Incharge at e lowest level. I understand for the 24yrs,MO1 used to wake up at 4am and by 8am, he had already talked to his informers at the grassroots and was aware of the security situation in every nook and cranny. Woe unto you if you were a DC or high ranking officer and if he calls you are not aware of the situation in your area. This whole system was dismantled when Kibaki came, and he started to rely 100% on official reports, same thing uhuruto is doing. I think this system it's not working especially in Neastern and coast, since officers will normally report what you want to hear I think there is intentionally compromised. How would you explain M01 govt which was more effective compared to this day when we have mobiles, CCTV, cameras, better tools... yet we still do random raids!!! I submit to you that the notion that Moi was better in security is rubbish. He just never faced anything of this magnitude
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