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Why is KCB on a decline?
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gatoho
#1 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 1:15:47 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
Why is KCB's price going down when everyone else is rising? I still wonna add to mine to even out for ones i got @ 28 ages ago.. Does someone know something i don;t or is a speculator pushing it down then to buy loads?
Foresight..
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guru267
#2 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 5:30:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@gatoho KCB is a very good company but i'm very pessimistic about its share price especially this year.. KCB will find it very hard to attract interest especially since its results wont be that good(flat or single digit growth) and there is alot of selling pressure on the counter...

but then again if your willing to hold it for like 2 years then things may look better since its massive investments and expansion coupled with improved economic growth will start to pay off...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Njung'e
#3 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 6:32:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/7/2007
Posts: 11,935
Location: Nairobi
KCB.........a sleeping giant.Good for medium to long term.
Nothing great was ever achieved without enthusiasm.
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gathinga
#4 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 9:38:17 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
http://www.businessdaily...6/-/6btmxl/-/index.html
News of this retrenchment may help the price to pick up slightly in the short term. Institutional investors are excited with companies cutting head count at a time of business expansion, coz if reflects better efficiencies and productivity or better uptake of existing technology
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VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 3:37:56 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
gatoho wrote:
Why is KCB's price going down when everyone else is rising? I still wonna add to mine to even out for ones i got @ 28 ages ago.. Does someone know something i don;t or is a speculator pushing it down then to buy loads?

What a nonsensical assertion/question!

"is a speculator pushing it down then to buy loads?"

1) If that is 'true' then you should buy coz they are selling them cheap

2) Even if the 'speculator' pushed the price down... who will sell to them (speculator) at the lower price?

3) Stop whining & read this story:
http://www.nation.co.ke/.../-/r3yp2nz/-/index.html

4) KCB loan book has huge amounts of poorly performing debts... We had Uchumi, then Triton now Panpaper, kesho KPC...


Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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gatoho
#6 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 4:29:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
Really Vitu vingi? I know you are a rank elder but you do not have to Use some words. It does happen anyway kinda like a certain Murdoch did with British papers..And anyway they say the only stupid questions are the unasked ones. Am not whining its As you can see i plan to add bucketloads... Thanks for your link but I believe I had already read it. Maybe peculiar but surely not nonsensical.
Foresight..
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VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 5:15:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
gatoho wrote:
Really Vitu vingi? I know you are a rank elder but you do not have to Use some words. It does happen anyway kinda like a certain Murdoch did with British papers..And anyway they say the only stupid questions are the unasked ones. Am not whining its As you can see i plan to add bucketloads... Thanks for your link but I believe I had already read it. Maybe peculiar but surely not nonsensical.

Bwana gatoho, It is simple. Really.
[Maybe the usual crappy politics are getting to me. I work so hard, pay taxes & the thieves get away.]

Ok, back to you... Again, pole... (tho I have no idea how this relates to Murdoch) Often, folks ask questions without thinking about it a little more...

KCB is a relatively liquid stock (by Kenyan standard) so there tends to be demand/supply at all levels... and the price would adjust to any 'mismatch' pretty fast.

Someone who wants to drive the price down has to continuously sell shares at lower prices. For KCB (among other liquid shares) then buyers will show up thus defeating the ability for the speculator to mop up shares at a lower price.

Also, unless there is fraud (or a rumor), why would someone sell their shares at a lower price to the speculator?

My point is that it is self-defeating for the speculator to try to drive the price down... He might sell 1,000,000 shares to drive it from 22 to 20... but can he buy back 1,000,000 at 20/-? Probably not...

I am a fundamental (not technical) investor... So if I think 22/- is a good price (which I think it is even with all the scams/bad loans!) then no point in selling at 22/- or 20/-... In fact, if the price fell to 20/-... I am a buyer!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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gatoho
#8 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 5:39:33 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
@ vitu probably it would take whole forum like a drink to explain the price thing, and its not even fraud. They jus make low offers as at any point someone wants to sell eventually pushing the price down. Really they are not speculators but long term.. Anyway no offence taken.. and work hard and fill the money.. the thieves tutakamata tu pole pole.. tuweke tairi tushome.. na kazi iendelee.
Foresight..
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Wa_ithaka
#9 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 5:46:00 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
KCB didn't have a good 2009-hence the retrenchments and the falling price.
I don't believe KCB in its present shape (i.e. without a world class risk-management system) will ever get beyond being a behemoth without the requisite returns. Its cost/income is the highest of any of the listed banks and it never really talks about how its going reduce it or at least increase revenue per employee.
Retrenching 1,000 employees will probably save at most, Ksh150m per year and at that not even this year.
Then as vvs mentioned, all the potentially huge loan write-offs and don't forget the pension-thingy...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Tuesday, February 16, 2010 6:08:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
gatoho wrote:
@ vitu probably it would take whole forum like a drink to explain the price thing, and its not even fraud. They jus make low offers as at any point someone wants to sell eventually pushing the price down. Really they are not speculators but long term.. Anyway no offence taken.. and work hard and fill the money.. the thieves tutakamata tu pole pole.. tuweke tairi tushome.. na kazi iendelee.

We can kamata these wizi... lakini they are connected...

So what if they make low bids? It is their right... I often bid low & offer high... Why coz I want the best possible price...

BTW, I know what u say when u 'low offers' but in investing lingo 'offer' is to offer to sell whereas 'bid' is to offer to buy...!!!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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