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NSE and the unfolding political drama
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haiyaa
#1 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 6:27:14 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/23/2008
Posts: 99
aren't the polical theatrics of the weekend going to severely hurt the recent recovery of share prices at the NSE.What if the PM decides to pull off the government? Fresh elections and the related political risks !!
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VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:02:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Yes... except for Nation & Standard...

News sells newspapers and ads... political ads will be up again on TV & newspapers...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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2012
#3 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:09:31 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
haiyaa wrote:
aren't the polical theatrics of the weekend going to severely hurt the recent recovery of share prices at the NSE.What if the PM decides to pull off the government?


I doubt it. The PM is not as popular as he used to be. If he quite only a small part of the railway will be uprooted.... then repaired....

BBI will solve it :)
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selah
#4 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:12:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
At the moment I dont think the political enviroment is alarming.But if Raila was to walk out and by so doing raise the political temperatures then most foreigh investors might fear what happened in 2008 and withdraw most of their investments especially in safaricom and mumias.
'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 7:20:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
The entire economy will be affected if the government falls...

1) Increased corruption as it will be evidence of no action by kibaki & friends. Note his group control the financial strings (uhuru, kinyua, ndungu) of Kenya. (Banks will suffer from higher defaults)

2) Any violence means tourism (TPSEA & KQ) will suffer.

3) Farmers in RV will be reluctant to buy new tractors, lorries & pickups (CMC). Imports & exports suffer (Express)

4) Violence means loss of property. Insurance firms like Jubilee, Pan African & Kenya Re will see losses. Also add banks to this group as defaults rise since 'collateral' is destroyed.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Gordon Gekko
#6 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:12:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
The sooner the coalition govt collapses the better for the economy. We need decisive leadership and two principals cant give us that. Of course the short term effects will be fall in prices, but the outlook after that will be positive.
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anasazi
#7 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:15:36 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 675
@GG, I beg to differ. I think a semblance of stability would be better for the economy.... We are yet to recover proper from 2008. Why would we want to go that way again?
Form is temporary, class is permanent
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the deal
#8 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:27:28 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
so kenya is gonna self destruct again...when i thought things were getting better....politics holds the country hostage again...with this type of leaders africa will never move forward..
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VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 8:55:27 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@GG - I know what you mean... I think we should have let the PEV run its course in 2008 but we just postponed the inevitable...

Anyway, I want the peace to hold until I can sell off all I have... maybe shift it to Namibia!!! @the deal?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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FundamentAli
#10 Posted : Monday, February 15, 2010 9:00:58 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
How does one contribute to such a topic? We have a big stakein the stockmarket. I feel like George Bush trying to protect the NYSE after 9/11. Say nothing to prevent things going down south.
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