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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND
Cicero
#31 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 7:13:32 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
@guru267thank you for the advice & the other honourable wazurians. Infact, i will get rid of sasini & kengen n report back say in a wks time. The i'll get more into KQ, safaricon & any other u may advice. I quite 4got 2ask about CMC. They sold quite a number of cars to Uhuru but they dont seem 2b making headways much. Will they in the medium term? Buy or sell now? What about the cable guys? there was a time that share was hot too ... betcha some of ya fellas made good ol' killin' those days ...
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
guru267
#32 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 8:08:05 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@cicero CMC may look good at first glance but i'm not sure about its future... the second hand market for cars in kenya is growing exponentially and GOK is going for cheap cars.. this doesnt paint a rosy picture for them especially for growth..

On the other hand cables may have a bright future especially with the massive investments that are and will take place in the energy sector in the near future..

but for figures please do your research especially on their cash flow and balance sheets...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
2012
#33 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 8:19:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
@2012.. the conflict started the day after the poll results were announced and ended the day after the coalition was formed on paper and that can hardly be called tribal wars... and let us not forget what happened in 1992...
the conflict was very political but it just so happened that the two parties were supported by different tribes..
but with 2012 no one will be seeking re-election and conflict usually arises when the incumbent doesnt want to leave..


@guru
People didn't just wake up one day and decided to fight. It was planned long before. The reason I say it was tribal is for the obvious reason that the militia were organised in tribal groupings. If you read the reports, no two tribes joined forces. There was nothing political in 2008, let's not confuse tribal chiefs for politicians. Politicians fight for agendas and beliefs not self gratification.

Ooops! This threads is turning into politics. My apologies, let's go back to the issue at hand.

BBI will solve it
:)
VituVingiSana
#34 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 8:34:48 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
mitumba cars have been a threat to the new motor vehicle business for years...

CMC sells more than new cars. It also sells agricultural equipment & construction equipment. These tend to be new since the needs are much tougher.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#35 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 8:54:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@VVS the threat of mitumba has always been there but in the last 3 or so years it has really grown(just move around nai, kisumu and nakuru)...and thats why i dont see GROWTH in profits unless the wages of wanjikus goes up... but CMC does have its part of market
i agree with the agric. and construction equipment but are these really significant to the p&l????
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 9:07:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,353
Location: Nairobi
@guru - Please read the Annual Report for CMC... then you can discuss their sales better...

Your comment/question "agric. and construction equipment but are these really significant to the p&l????" will be answered (or at least you can compare revenues) after you look at the Annual Report.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#37 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 9:40:20 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Quote:
Your comment/question


@VVS it was a question!! CMC is not really a company of my interest so i'm not so together with the figures or sources of revenue..
but i was just trying to help @cicero from a macroeconomic point of view.. thats why i insisted research should be done into facts and figures...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mkonomtupu
#38 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 9:48:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Cicero, why would you buy safaricom with P/E of 20.38. That's too high even for a speculative stock. I refused to buy at IPO and got them at 2.92 in May last year exited at 5.2. If the foreigners exit in 2011 you end up with a really expensive stock.
guru267
#39 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 10:01:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@mkono i agree safcom looks really highly priced right now but you're thinking like a value investor what your not considering is that it has a very high projected growth curve because of the massive investments its been carrying out for the last two years so its a darling for growth investors...

if you are looking 5 years out this still remains as a perfect play.. and if foreigners kill it in 2011.. that just becomes more buying oppurtunity for me...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#40 Posted : Thursday, February 11, 2010 10:04:16 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@mkono growth counters tend to have a high p/e eg. ARM, Access, Bamburi, safcom, etc
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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