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NSE SHARES PERFORMANCE: THREE YEAR FORECAST WITH 2012 IN MIND

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Cicero		#1 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 4:02:45 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111		I consider myself a medium to long term investor at the NSE. I tend to be one of the fearful ones especially after Uchumi froze quite a good chunk of my portfolio so nowadays i diversify quite a lot (probably more than i should). Currently among others i hold the following counters which i would like to continue holding until sometime in 2012, probably before the elections: 1]Sasini bought@Av. - @15.50 x 9,600 2]KQ - @41.00 x 10,000 3]Equity - @17.40 x 15,000 4]KCB - @22.40 x 10,000 5]Kenya-Re - @14.40 x 16,700 3]EABL - @138.00x 2,500 7]KENGEN - @21.00 X 4,000 8]Mumia's sugar - @11.40 x 35,000 I have two questions: First what are your predictions as to the 3 year movement in prices if i were to sell just before the 2012 elections? Will any of them have doubled? Secondly, should i sell some which wazurians think will not perform as well in that medium term (3 years)? If so which ones should i sell and which ones should i buy/keep. I will appreciate all your advice ... Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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mukiha		#2 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 4:36:50 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/27/2008 Posts: 4,114		How did you end up buying everything at such high prices? Was it bad advice from a broker or plain bad timing/luck? Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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sparkly		#3 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 4:42:12 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi		@cicero you seem well diversified sectorwise. Your counters are mostly solid. For optimum returns maybe you should substitute with one of the higher growth small and midcaps. Lower your average in kengen and sasini. Conquer your fear its not good in stocks. Life is short. Live passionately.
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RichVee		#4 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 5:31:01 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 1/26/2010 Posts: 124		I am also wondering why you bought them so expensive! On the lighter side, I am curious about your wanting to sell just before elections...are you running for office? Perhaps investing for campaign funds? :) :) Tired of mediocrity. Am going to the very top!
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sheep		#5 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 6:13:57 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 7/24/2008 Posts: 781		Lets be honest,he did not buy the stocks too expensive.Imagine dudes who were in a buying frenzy in 2006-2007,they are totally wasted coz most didnt sell.Most People choose to sweep their huge losses under the carpet and focus on their measly "profits". The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
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VituVingiSana		#6 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:01:54 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,353 Location: Nairobi		Sasini should have a good year coz of higher tea prices but it has to do very well to get to 15.50 KQ is above the buying price though I would hold on until the announcement on 30 May. Based on 1H results + 3Q announcement, KQ will do much better than last year. KCB will have a good year if it can avoid another scandal. The results should be out in Feb/March (as will other banks). Perhaps they will write back some provisions for Triton/KPC as well as Uchumi. BUT all these are indicators of revenues & profits... NOT share prices! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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2012		#7 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:11:43 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi		It would be very hard for anyone to advice you on that. Did you have a clear exit strategy? Was it 2012? If so and it made sense to you then you should wait. My exit strategy is: -Sell after 40% gain -Exit at the earliest time possible from a counter when you are not too sure about the management especially new or when you can tell they're making a mistake. I offloaded all my Centum immediately I knew about their intention of investing in the railway. The railway is a brilliant idea but the politics around it makes it a bad deal for now. About 2012, I intend to have sold most of my shares mid to end of 2011 depending on whether the new constitution stamps out impunity. Because if not we'll experience mass exodus from the foreign investors first quarter of 2012 and for that I think mid-end 2012 will be a time to buy not sell. BBI will solve it :)
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Cicero		#8 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:53:28 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111		@muhika, my shares have been bought over a lengthy period of time ... a small amount at a time. I rarely sell (bad, i am sure but at times it works). So most of those shares were bought in 2007 when prices were sky high. But i was clever enough also to buy some when the NSE was down under. I bought almost on every counter, Mumias at 6, KQ @19, EABL@20 etc ... u can imagine how high my initials shares were on average ... so to me, i have done well, though to most of you NSE gurus i have done poorly ... Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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VituVingiSana		#9 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:57:23 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,353 Location: Nairobi		For the brave... 2012 will be the time to buy... but it is a risk coz if things go under... well, the shares could be worth less... Say the crap hits the fan... some idiot destroys/burns the EABL factory... the losses from the factory + loss of product for distribution + lower spending power = collapse in profits! BTW, we saw the reduced spending power in 2008... the farmers who were in IDP camps had no chumz... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Cicero		#10 Posted : Wednesday, February 10, 2010 7:59:31 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111		@RichVee, i am not running for office at any time. i would rather run for board chairman once i have amassed enough shares of one of the counter, i am not sure which ... As for selling by 2012, i may shelve that if i think the country is stable like everyone of you. In fact, in November 2007, i sold all my holdings (if not all, almost all ...) in readiness for disaster ... and it happened, but i was fool enough to enter the market thereafter and was then hit by the global crisis as indeed some of you may have ... i usually dont sell but if i knew of such a crisis i would have sold. Instead, i bought which hasnt turned out to be such a bad idea as it brought my average down ... Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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