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Taking positions for 2010

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VituVingiSana		#71 Posted : Thursday, January 21, 2010 12:29:17 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi		@cnn - KQ is going to see a jump in price as local sellers bail. For KQ, 1% of the shares trading in a single day is way over the top!!! Foreign buyers find it tougher to sell i.e. chances are they are in for the longer haul... Say they expect 15% so they are looking at 75/- I am bullish on KQ but you know I have been... from the beginning... Forget 45/-... I am going with 75/- by 31 Dec 2010 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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VituVingiSana		#72 Posted : Friday, January 29, 2010 1:22:34 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi		Update 29 Jan 2010 (last trading day of Jan 2010) on my picks KQ: 50/- (Still higher than my 42-45 range but I await the passenger numbers for 3Q 2009-10). I do expect good FY 2009-10 results. KPLC: 149/- (Vacillating in a very narrow range of 148-150). I stand by my target of 200/- (including divs + Rights premium) by 31 Dec 2011. This is a 2 year play. Williamson: 130/-. Seems to have found a bottom. Tea prices dropping but remain ahead of last year. Year End 31 Mar 2010. Results by 30 June 2010. Target remains 200/- Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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VituVingiSana		#73 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 2:20:15 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi		87% net purchases of KQ by foreign buyers today. In my gut I think there is something going on... Is KQ up for grabs? Does someone know about KQ's hedges? In any case... I remain on bullish on KQ profitability. I think the PAT (before hedges) will be Kes 5-7... & that includes the 600mn KQ had to pay as backpay for striking staff as well as losses from the strike... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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guru267		#74 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 5:45:12 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		@VVS are you overweight on KQ?? you seem to be extemely bullish on it, i think i might have got out too early... do you see an entry point at these levels?? if so why?? Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana		#75 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:22:14 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi		@guru - I bailed on some at lower prices... LOL... I had initial sale target at 42/- then 45/- but it kept on rising in a straight line to 55/- then to 58/-... I was not able to buy more since there was no 'dip' back to 45/- I cant be sure about share prices but the profits IMHO will be very good... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Cicero		#76 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:25:51 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111		The half year earnings (PAT) of KQ were 860M (EPS 1.84) or thereabouts if i remember correctly. With there increased destinations and having taken care of their staff renumerations in the 1st half ... and considering the impact of +ve income from fuel adjustment ... i expect at least 3B profit after tax ... but if you add the goodwill and the fact that end year accounts are always more than x2 of half year statements then we may even get 4M which is more than sh.8 EPS ... which means the share will at the very least be worth sh.80 by May this year .... and if you go by Wazurians expectation that the PE must be above 12 ... then you are thinking of a share price of about kes.100 ... and that's what i expect in May-June ... No? Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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VituVingiSana		#77 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:32:54 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi		Cicero wrote: The half year earnings (PAT) of KQ were 860M (EPS 1.84) or thereabouts if i remember correctly. With there increased destinations and having taken care of their staff renumerations in the 1st half ... and considering the impact of +ve income from fuel adjustment ... i expect at least 3B profit after tax ... but if you add the goodwill and the fact that end year accounts are always more than x2 of half year statements then we may even get 4M which is more than sh.8 EPS ... which means the share will at the very least be worth sh.80 by May this year .... and if you go by Wazurians expectation that the PE must be above 12 ... then you are thinking of a share price of about kes.100 ... and that's what i expect in May-June ... No? 12x PE might be high though definitely possible if 2010 looks good. IMHO KQ shud have EPS of 5-7 BEFORE any fuel hedging gains. And since oil is even higher than on 30 Sep 2009, these should materialize for KQ. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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Cicero		#78 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:43:29 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/7/2009 Posts: 111		Thanks @VVS for "seconding" my thoughts. I am still new in this WAZUA but very interested to learn the ropes from the gurus. However, that's not to say i have no experince of my own. I have ridden the bull and the bear that is NSE and i know how both feel. I even rode Uchumi to oblivion though it now looks like what people thought was an uchumi "dead bear" was just hibernating and it's soon coming out of the snow ... may be a little thin but ready to go yet again ... Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
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guru267		#79 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:50:14 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi		@cicero could you help me out??? i have no info on uchumi share structure.. how many shares were issued and how many were floated before recevership?? Mark 12:29 Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana		#80 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:52:45 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,349 Location: Nairobi		http://www.centreforavia...10&utm_medium=email Global air traffic expected to grow in 2010... based on bookings/sales made in Dec 2009... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - *to paraphrase Warren Buffett*
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