If nothing else KK should benefit from lower oil prices as it (like other OMCs) sell cheaper fuel at higher prices (coz ERC formula lags) BUT it can suffer if oil prices start rising.
2014 is done. I hope they have made the turnaround but the hard work of re-buidling the brand has started. Can Ohana and the Board guide KK to the huge (Operational) profits of days past?
Ultimately, the firm has to be sold to a deep pocketed Strategic Investor. If the books have cleaned up, can Puma return for a second look?
[This may be as a buy-out of existing shareholders or new shares issued i.e. recapitalization]
Fuel/Oil Hedges - Expired? [I think so]
Currency Hedges - Expired? [I think so]
Bad Debts - Collected or Written Off? [I doubt]
My jua kali way to look at it is to visit their stations. I see some improvement since June 2014. They stations are cleaner and stocked/wet. There is a lot that needs to be done but if progress continues a this rate then there may be hope in 2015.
Sale of KK. I hoped it was 2015 but I think it will a 2016 play. The biwotts would want clarity on the CGT.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett