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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
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Akenyan2014
#61 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 10:58:25 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.

I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns.


@hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these!

Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions..
Why 'unfortunately'? You made a life choice/decision. Are you regretting it?
And which religion doesn't allow you to own shares in a bank?


Islam does not allow one to benefit from interest income... None of the listed banks are Sharia compliant!

It was a tough choice but a right one!


Who has been buying SCANGROUP in bulk lately? Very huge volumes in block trades since yesterday
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Boris Boyka
#62 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 10:58:32 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.

I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns.


@hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these!

Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions..
Why 'unfortunately'? You made a life choice/decision. Are you regretting it?
And which religion doesn't allow you to own shares in a bank?


Islam does not allow one to benefit from interest income... None of the listed banks are Sharia compliant!

It was a tough choice but a right one!

Self illusion....all the businesses you are doing/stocks/companies you are invested in benefit from interest income in one way or another....quick question what is the difference btwn profits & interest as defined by islam.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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The optimist
#63 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 11:25:14 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/14/2010
Posts: 521
Location: Nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.

I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns.


@hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these!

Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions..
Why 'unfortunately'? You made a life choice/decision. Are you regretting it?
And which religion doesn't allow you to own shares in a bank?


Islam does not allow one to benefit from interest income... None of the listed banks are Sharia compliant!

It was a tough choice but a right one!

Self illusion....all the businesses you are doing/stocks/companies you are invested in benefit from interest income in one way or another....quick question what is the difference btwn profits & interest as defined by islam.

The answer is within your question. One has a loan component while the other does not.
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Boris Boyka
#64 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 11:34:16 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
The optimist wrote:
Boris Boyka wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.

I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns.


@hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these!

Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions..
Why 'unfortunately'? You made a life choice/decision. Are you regretting it?
And which religion doesn't allow you to own shares in a bank?


Islam does not allow one to benefit from interest income... None of the listed banks are Sharia compliant!

It was a tough choice but a right one!

Self illusion....all the businesses you are doing/stocks/companies you are invested in benefit from interest income in one way or another....quick question what is the difference btwn profits & interest as defined by islam.

The answer is within your question. One has a loan component while the other does not.

Okay @optimist and thanks..but don't be too quick or rush in answering.....find my deeeper intention please.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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hisah
#65 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 12:16:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.

I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns.


@hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these!

Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions..

The 3 sources I reference NSE data all indicate that KCB closed at 30 on 31/12/2012. Unless referring to 2012 then does 20's price range become relevant. The 17 bob last traded in Jan 2012.

My reference price for KCB in Nov is 49. About 50 handle the rally has been acting like drenched shoes this year. A lot of volume but a slog of a rally.

As bonus I'll put out the charts. TA cartoonist spot the patterns as the charts start curving down - distribution.

KCB Daily chart


Equity Daily chart - Will the H&S pattern trigger?


And 5yr monthly mpesa bank chart froming a solid shooting star candlestick... Reversal looms.


Bulls have a heck of a fight to keep things afloat... And that info snippet by @littlelove on local and foreign institutions is a treasure and a half.

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, December 23, 2014 12:25 PM | Reason: Not specified
Metasploit
#66 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 12:42:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Maybe you can add trendline on the charts;

we have a horizontal trend range on the KCB chart;support at 51-53 from July 2014 and last hit on 18/12/2014 (I bought at 52.50 for shorterm play),and resistance at 60-62 failed to be broken 5 times (Aug,sep,oct,nov 2014)

This implies two things;trend range may continue at least twice with possible lower lows after which we will have a very strong trend change ( a breakout above 62 or a breakdown below 51)

** 52*1.15=60 (15% price difference between support and resistance for the shorterm traders)


CFC stanbic shows the same trend range (support at 118-120,resistance at 127)It has been trying to break above the resistance since June,at the same time support has always been tested (we had price closing at 115 and touching 115 on two occassions).Same script a breakdown or breakout will be strong

** 118*1.12=132 (12% price difference between support and resistance for the shorterm traders)

Equity has been seeing lower lows after hitting the high of 63.

The last low was at 48.50,then 46 and now the price is flirting at 47 and will definately go down.

If the price goes lower than 45,we will set a new support at 50 and this will be a classical head and shoulder pattern

# At this correction cycle,bought centum at 56,KCB at 52.50 and trying KPLC at 13

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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TheGeek
#67 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 1:29:48 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/3/2014
Posts: 245
Metasploit wrote:
Maybe you can add trendline on the charts;

we have a horizontal trend range on the KCB chart;support at 51-53 from July 2014 and last hit on 18/12/2014 (I bought at 52.50 for shorterm play),and resistance at 60-62 failed to be broken 5 times (Aug,sep,oct,nov 2014)

This implies two things;trend range may continue at least twice with possible lower lows after which we will have a very strong trend change ( a breakout above 62 or a breakdown below 51)

** 52*1.15=60 (15% price difference between support and resistance for the shorterm traders)


CFC stanbic shows the same trend range (support at 118-120,resistance at 127)It has been trying to break above the resistance since June,at the same time support has always been tested (we had price closing at 115 and touching 115 on two occassions).Same script a breakdown or breakout will be strong

** 118*1.12=132 (12% price difference between support and resistance for the shorterm traders)

Equity has been seeing lower lows after hitting the high of 63.

The last low was at 48.50,then 46 and now the price is flirting at 47 and will definately go down.

If the price goes lower than 45,we will set a new support at 50 and this will be a classical head and shoulder pattern

# At this correction cycle,bought centum at 56,KCB at 52.50 and trying KPLC at 13


Price volatility = Traders in the market.
I agree on the KPLC also checkout KENGEN. UNGA is also on my radar

KENGEN @ 9


UNGA @ 35


Also lookout for BAMBURI 135-140(For long term)




In the world of securities, courage and patience become the supreme virtues after adequate knowledge and a tested judgment are at hand.
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Aguytrying
#68 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 1:58:34 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
guru267 wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@mukiri. don't shoot the messenger. especially when the predictions are just starting to become true. the actions of late all point to a very red nse in 2015, use the predictions wisely instead of fighting them.


Markets fall every year at this time due to inactivity... It has no bearing on the following year though!


would you call the market inactive at this time? look at the turnover(s) this month.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#69 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 2:16:59 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.

I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns.


@hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these!

Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions..
Why 'unfortunately'? You made a life choice/decision. Are you regretting it?
And which religion doesn't allow you to own shares in a bank?


Islam does not allow one to benefit from interest income... None of the listed banks are Sharia compliant!

It was a tough choice but a right one!
Then you should have no 'unfortunate' regrets...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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guru267
#70 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 7:51:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Boris Boyka wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
hisah wrote:
@Mukiri - I don't remember KCB @20s back in Nov 2013. Banks have been toppish since Nov 2013 and I stick with this argument, so don't be surprised by my stand. I just trade the charts (techs and fundies). It has nothing to do with ego and I wonder where this accusation is coming from. Once in a while some calls may fail to come by as expected since prediction outcomes are never 100% when a market is in a period of irrational exuberance. But eventually the madness fades and the market resets to normal levels.

I will continue betting against the crowd until the charts revert their patterns.


@hisah I do remember KCB at 17bob in 2013 so guys have made a killing on these!

Unfortunately I had to sell all the banks I own when I converted religions..
Why 'unfortunately'? You made a life choice/decision. Are you regretting it?
And which religion doesn't allow you to own shares in a bank?


Islam does not allow one to benefit from interest income... None of the listed banks are Sharia compliant!

It was a tough choice but a right one!

Self illusion....all the businesses you are doing/stocks/companies you are invested in benefit from interest income in one way or another....quick question what is the difference btwn profits & interest as defined by islam.


Can one earn a profit if their company has made a loss?
Can one earn interest if the company they have lent to has made a loss??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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