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Value investing in US stocks
valueinvestingkenya
#1 Posted : Friday, December 19, 2014 9:27:19 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
high there I know a little about investing I have been born and raised in Kenya I have a blog called valueinvestingkenya@wordpress.com I post my analysis and I am more comfortable with US equities last year I was able to post returns of 71% which I was able to beat the S&P 500 this year I am going to try it again and you have a better chance of learning and scrutinizing my process I plan to start a hedge fund if all goes well next year 2015 I have all my this year stocks analysis on the blog so you can look through and ask questions or comment on the blog if necessary I plan to analyze and post atleast three stocks weekly or more thank you and I welcome all kinds of people and questions.see you there
valueinvestingkenya
#2 Posted : Friday, December 19, 2014 9:51:40 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
An analysis of a stock Zumiez INC

If you are wondering about the company no to worry I also thought I had it wrong just don’t confuse it with the word zombies and if that’s funny wait till you see the symbol name it trades with the symbol ZUMZ, sounds like a toddler try to talk may be its first words and exactly why nobody would be caught dead buying such a company worse you should hear what it sells its merchandise action sports related apparel, footwear, accessories and hardgoods, focusing on skateboarding, snowboarding, surfing, motocross and bicycle motocross (“BMX”) for young men and women.obviously don’t expect grandpa to be buying this company or you parents and just by those words it tells you just how much value it is even more amazing is the company has been profitable for 35 years straight that more years than I have been a live meaning it has stood at least 4 recessions including the one that seemed to swallow all the big companies alive well that just about it I didn’t even know prior to reading this annual report that the games are actually called action games I always referred to them as X games as is mostly advertised in ESPN if surfing board or skate boards are your thing I will show you who sell them.ZUMIES has a market cap of of 758.36M and even better it has an enterprise value of 589.53M and an EBITDA ratio of 6.01 in 2012 did an acquisition of Blue Tomato which mainly operate in the European market as strategy to enter the European market an diversify from just the US market.ZUMZ sell for 25.98 but its enterprise value per share is 20.23 this for a company that earned 1.52 per share but wait the company had charges I believe are non recurring though I am not sure of one which is litigation since it had the same litigation issue in 2009 but I will add the all charge offs since in my view they are non recurring which come in at 0.23 add back to earning and you get earning per share of 1.75 keep in mind that this company has been profitable for 35 years as we look at free cash flow in 2010 free cash flow came in at 28.6 falling to 19.3 in 2011 and jumping a high of 42.6 in 2012 this year it came in at 30.9 EBITDA has gone from a low of 17.9 in 2005 to 99.4 in 2014 and this will grow as the company has just entered the European market and it has it that it will open at least 55 more shops in all three markets US, Canada and Europe in 2014 also the management has been buying back shares with speed and they still have 14.6M dollars remaining to buyback more shares that with insiders owning 28% of the shares outstanding means their interest are well aligned with shareholders this is going to my portfolio immediately.More of this on valueinvestingkenya@wodpress.com
valueinvestingkenya
#3 Posted : Saturday, December 20, 2014 8:28:51 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
value investing in Us stocks from Kenya

you can learn more from my blog valueinvestingkenya@wordpress.com come see my analysis
Mukiri
#4 Posted : Monday, December 22, 2014 9:32:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
valueinvestingkenya wrote:
high there I know a little about investing I have been born and raised in Kenya I have a blog called valueinvestingkenya@wordpress.com I post my analysis and I am more comfortable with US equities last year I was able to post returns of 71% which I was able to beat the S&P 500 this year I am going to try it again and you have a better chance of learning and scrutinizing my process I plan to start a hedge fund if all goes well next year 2015 I have all my this year stocks analysis on the blog so you can look through and ask questions or comment on the blog if necessary I plan to analyze and post atleast three stocks weekly or more thank you and I welcome all kinds of people and questions.see you there

Quick question, how do you communicate in the Us?

Proverbs 19:21
Boris Boyka
#5 Posted : Monday, December 22, 2014 9:47:19 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
Mukiri wrote:
valueinvestingkenya wrote:
high there I know a little about investing I have been born and raised in Kenya I have a blog called valueinvestingkenya@wordpress.com I post my analysis and I am more comfortable with US equities last year I was able to post returns of 71% which I was able to beat the S&P 500 this year I am going to try it again and you have a better chance of learning and scrutinizing my process I plan to start a hedge fund if all goes well next year 2015 I have all my this year stocks analysis on the blog so you can look through and ask questions or comment on the blog if necessary I plan to analyze and post atleast three stocks weekly or more thank you and I welcome all kinds of people and questions.see you there

Quick question, how do you communicate in the Us?

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
valueinvestingkenya
#6 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 7:18:28 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
I don't you see when you look at the financial statements of any company you can easily understand what to look for communication is not key its understanding the company that is the most important thing in investing in the US you get them for free from edgar actually I will be doing an analysis today of a company called majicjack symbol name "call" look it up on yahoo finance
Boris Boyka
#7 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 11:43:55 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
valueinvestingkenya wrote:
I don't you see when you look at the financial statements of any company you can easily understand what to look for communication is not key its understanding the company that is the most important thing in investing in the US you get them for free from edgar actually I will be doing an analysis today of a company called majicjack symbol name "call" look it up on yahoo finance

communication is very important. rem wazuans say information is wealth...at least try to construct sentences that make sense...if you continue making such mistakes???? you will mis-inform your audience, very few will get your points through much effort thus you won't be taken seriously. how do you expect us to understand your analysis kama we struggle much to get something from your above words? get @Mukiris point well
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
Othelo
#8 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 11:48:54 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Boris Boyka wrote:
valueinvestingkenya wrote:
I don't you see when you look at the financial statements of any company you can easily understand what to look for communication is not key its understanding the company that is the most important thing in investing in the US you get them for free from edgar actually I will be doing an analysis today of a company called majicjack symbol name "call" look it up on yahoo finance

communication is very important. rem wazuans say information is wealth...at least try to construct sentences that make sense...if you continue making such mistakes???? you will mis-inform your audience, very few will get your points through much effort thus you won't be taken seriously. how do you expect us to understand your analysis kama we struggle much to get something from your above words? get @Mukiris point well

smile smile smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
valueinvestingkenya
#9 Posted : Tuesday, December 23, 2014 12:42:24 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
let me put it lightly its not so much about information as the right information when you want to invest,I am inclined to value investing that is looking for companies or stocks that are undervalued and only investing if and only when you have enough confidence about your conviction of the undervaluation and a possible gain on your investment, this information for listed companies locally and globally is accessed through the financial statement of the company so its critical to understand the financial statements and thats what I do I read them all for companies listed on US exchanges the information is easily accessed through www.sec.gov and are known as 10k for annual reports and 10Q for quarterly reports and screening which most of the online website offers e.g yahoo,google and bing among others sorry if I didn't come out correctly the first time
valueinvestingkenya
#10 Posted : Tuesday, January 06, 2015 7:50:02 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
RF Industry Ltd

The company goes by the symbol name RFIL on the Nasdaq stock exchange rfil primarily engages in the design, manufacture, and marketing of interconnect products and systems, including coaxial and specialty cables, fiber optic cables and connectors, and electrical and electronic specialty cables.The company is divided into three divisions Rf connectors and cables assembly,cable unlimited and medical cabling and interconnectors the first two make up more than 90% of sales in the last two years, of course this tells you little of the company and rfil falls in the Microcap with a marketcap of 33 mil that is sub 50 mil cap hence its called a Microcap even better the enterprise value (EV) of 20.13 that tells you something that it has more cash stashed on the balance sheet you should always love it when the EV is less than the more advertised market cap on a per share basis rfil sell for 4.06 and has cash and cash equivalent of 11.9 mil which is 1.5 on a per share basis net of debt which means we are actually buying rfil for 2.56 may I remind you that rfil total assets are made up of 79% of current assets that on a per share comes in at 2.38 net current assets (current assets- total liabilities) and its current assets are made up of assets that have little chance of obsolence.Now lets get to the ratios rfil made 5.5 mil operating cash flow even better it had 5.1 mil of free cash flow so how do you get free cash flow well you need to first figure out what maintainance capex is, well of the total capital expenditure as is on annual reports a percentage of it goes to growth and the other goes to maintaince you need to only subtract the maintainace capex which we illustrate as returning assets at the end of the year as they were at the begging of the year the ball point number is depreciation.On a per share basis rfil free cashflow comes in at 0.62 that massive free cash flow explains why the cash and cash equivalent literally more than doubled over the the last twelve months, I have always said PE is a bad indicator of what a company value is so let me give a real life example with rfil a check at yahoo finance and the PE is stated at 24.4 take out the cash and cash equivalent and the PE drops to 5 you need to understand the accounting rules of the GAAP or IFRS to take advantage of where they fall short rfil had diluted earning per share of 0.46 and for a company selling for 2.56 is a steal not to mention that net current assets stood at 2.38 without taking property plant and equipment into the calculation there is little chance of loss here and rfil is in take over territory here it only needs an industrial buyer attracted by the low EV to set things in motion couple by the more than average dividend yield of 6.9% and of the 18% of the total insider ownership of stock 8% is owned by the six board members so it seems we are sitting on the same side of the table rfil is a buy
valueinvestingkenya
#11 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 4:05:29 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
an analysis of Movado (MOV)

Movado Group designs, sources, markets and distributes fine watches. Its portfolio of brands is currently comprised of Coach® Watches, Concord®, Ebel®, ESQ® Movado, Scuderia Ferrari® Watches, HUGO BOSS® Watches, Juicy Couture® Watches, Lacoste® Watches, Movado®, and Tommy Hilfiger® Watches. The Company is a leader in the design, development, marketing and distribution of watch brands sold in almost every major category comprising the watch industry.The company markets its watches in two segment the US and international and this is where most of the confusion starts or should I say value.You see most of the Cash made from international segment which account for 49% of sales is not repatriated back to the US why simple Movado is trying to avoid the Federal withholding tax hence the cash stays outside the US that also does not include some of the Net operating loss carry forward it has in both the US and International and Movado has a lot of non cash charges on its 10K so the best way to value it is from the cashflow statement why because this is where the money is and the income statement is getting a beating from this non cash charges good for Movado and bad for the IRS so lets see just how much of a value Movado is with 25.8 m shares outstanding and a closing price of 27.25 Movado market cap comes in at 703.05 remember the cash I said about the International segment that is yet to be repatriated back to the US since as per Movado its permanently reinvested for future use in its subsidiaries in the both Asia and Switzerland that cash comes in at 213.7m and thats not inclusive of the cash on balance sheet net of debt of 190.7 adding it all together the cash comes in at 404.4m but we need to also add the Net operating loss carry forward, it has non on the Federal level but it has some at International and State level which comes in at 51.5m so we add it to cash and subtract it from the Market cap to get the enterprise value which comes in at 247.15 now to the cash flow in 2012 cash flow was at a high of 86m then dropped by more than half in 2013 to come in at 38.7m and last year it went up a bit to 54.5 but we need to get free cash flow for the recent year and this comes in at 46.5 that means Movado is selling for 5.3 times free cash flow that explains why it started paying dividends but I would have love it if it went for less than 4 times free cash flow but even now it still undervalued I wonder though what will happen once its start to repatriate retained income from the foreign subsidiaries since with 49% of sale outside US the retained income will still grow at high rate most likely Movado will do another acquisition but thats no problem since it has been conservative in its acquisitions but should it buy financial institution or even worse a steel company that should be a cause for concern but for now its time to scale into Movado. find at valueinvestingkenya.wordpress.com
Othelo
#12 Posted : Tuesday, January 13, 2015 5:05:52 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 1/20/2014
Posts: 3,528
Madam admin hataki nyef nyef smile smile smile
Formal education will make you a living. Self-education will make you a fortune - Jim Rohn.
valueinvestingkenya
#13 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2015 7:56:17 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
You don't communicate with anybody in the US so long as you have the financials statements for the last five years, that's all you need also understand the industry you company falls in, and not all companies are built equal.
Boris Boyka
#14 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2015 8:26:02 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
valueinvestingkenya wrote:
You don't communicate with anybody in the US so long as you have the financials statements for the last five years, that's all you need also understand the industry you company falls in, and not all companies are built equal.

@vik please just try and punctuate your words. ( . , ; )
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
valueinvestingkenya
#15 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2015 9:16:30 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
I will thank you.
zizzi
#16 Posted : Monday, April 27, 2015 9:37:51 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 3/2/2011
Posts: 33
Location: Nbi
No, this is good....You should carry on doing this and don't sweat the small stuff.

You should check out -
http://www.gurufocus.com/screener/

It gives you a wealth of screening options - plus a Ben Graham 'Net-Net' screener...

The question is (1) How do you go about finding your stocks at present and (2) how do you invest in the US?

It seems like you may be young and just starting out in the investing world? If you are, stick with it.

The key is, when markets fall, most people are not psychologically equipped to handle market falls. So even if a stock is really really cheap and it falls say another 50-70%, that is when most people panic and take cues from the market.

Excellent that you are starting out like this - build up a track record, have some formal of record keeping to prove that you actually made those returns and you should be able to attract capital.

All the best and I hope to be able to check your blog once in a while.

valueinvestingkenya
#17 Posted : Thursday, May 07, 2015 9:51:41 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 12/19/2014
Posts: 15
Thank you Zizzi, never heard anybody recommend anything from my blog, I think people take what the financial statements portray as the gospel truth,I take everything in investing with a pinch of salt,what I have found out in Kenya is that investing is still at its infancy people who are in wazua and another faceboook group I am in have a very hard time understanding anything I write, and I also have a very hard time understanding how they invest with so little knowledge.
I have been researching and reading about investing for the last 8 years so in 2013 I decided to open a demo account with finviz, 29 stocks later and in 2014 a year after I had opened the account was the time of reckoning and sure enough theory did match up with reality,and made a good return actually I opened a couple of accounts including shortselling portfolio but this got a beating and didn't do very well overall. The one portfolio that actually did very well was one that had the least stock 6 stocks to be exact it was up 150% in nine months. From this I have learned diversification is of less importance now I prefer to hold less than 25 stocks.
As for how to invest in the US its pretty simple all you need is to search for an online broker that takes non US residents, interactive brokers fits the bill here I actually opened an account with them but its not that easy. My plan is to start a hedge fund which I have, not limited by 66 stocks only traded on the NSE,if and when the NSE is overvalued investors have few options. I am opportunistic so long as I can understand the company, I will invest no matter where the stock exchange is located, on the other hand as your capital grows the NSE will become less attractive since the capital needed to invest on the NSE is small so much so that it can't move a pen, a case most pension schemes are currently experiencing more and more.
I really don't have a formula as to how I pick my stocks, most of the time I am looking for out of favor industry's, the 52 week low or anything else that wall street considers below par for investing, then I do my due diligence, to check if investors overreacted, or they are actually right. I have and use gurufocus as one of the screeners and the SEC for financial statements, from this you can make a rational judgement either to invest or pass which happens most of the time.
As for attracting capital this has been the biggest hurdle I have yet to conquer, most people can't believe than you can invest in the US successfully, and the recent recession has almost cast this in stone what they don't know is that this actually the time to invest, Europe is offering one of the best opportunities so is Korea and Japan, I have read a lot about value investing and though net-nets did in the past outperform before the internet era today screening for net-nets is like childs play. After a while researching about value investing you take what fits you and though still grounded by the same fundamental discipline of value investing I have come up with my own way of searching for my investments I call it value hidden in plain sight the net of it all is I am looking where there is an undervaluation and where the wind is on my back the odds are in my favor.
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