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How to tell NSE has topped/Maxed out.
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Metasploit
#41 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 3:31:12 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:
Britam - 2yr chart shows strong rejection from the 40/- zone level. Chartists will tell that the coming correction will not be gentle...



Equity - 2yr chart says thin sim or no thin sim, upside is very limited!



Centum - 2yr chart. This is my favourite coz it's such a nice selloff bazooka cocktail which will leave serious hangover side-effects for late the party-goers. Best bull trap setup at the NSE so far!



I will be waiting for those lessons learnt tales. And they'll be plenty as the trapped realize the pretty shiny golden handcuffs just work like the normal handcuffs.






Interesting .... waiting for the lessons. smile


LONG SHOOTING STAR CANDLESTICK FOR THE THREE

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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snipermnoma
#42 Posted : Wednesday, October 22, 2014 6:14:42 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/3/2014
Posts: 257
So now that support for Britam at 27 has broken is this the beginning? Safaricom does not look in good shape either, The other two that had been graphed, Equity and Centum are shaky but not as badly as Britam.
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littledove
#43 Posted : Friday, December 19, 2014 4:17:10 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!

INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%

Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%

There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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littledove
#44 Posted : Friday, December 19, 2014 4:19:16 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!

INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%

Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%

There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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streetwise
#45 Posted : Friday, December 19, 2014 4:37:45 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/23/2011
Posts: 1,740
Location: Nairobi
Why are they scaring, it only means the locals now appreciate the stock market much better than before. If these local are many in number i.e. buyer of small number of shares it may also mean that you will never miss someone to sell or buy from. To me this is a better scenario.

On the other hand when the foreigner decide to come back to the market you can make a kill
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hisah
#46 Posted : Monday, December 22, 2014 1:19:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
littledove wrote:
these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!

INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%

Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%


@littledove - thanks for this treasure snippet smile

So both local and foreign institutionals have been on the sellside in 2014 while the market rallied into heavy resistance forest (5000-5500 layers). Meanwhile wanjikus piled in... Ai caramba!

Since Sept 22nd when NSE20 closed @5406 the slide has now broken below 5000 handle with the market closing @4910 on Dec 19. The week starting on Dec 15th saw some heavy turnover (heavyweight counters) for 3 days in a row and in the process NSE20 skidded below the 5000 handle since Aug 2014.

Q1 2015 will be critical for the bulls to hold the fort. If not, we're just getting started on the lower lows journey! If mpesa bank fails to break above 15 with aplomb on the next attempt that will be the best signal. Watch out for the banks they're weak. They've been so since Nov 2013 and I've seemed to be a madman as they rallied. If they reverse their 2014 gains, the market will be in a bear...

And lastly USD > KES 90 is a formidable NSE bulls opponent. Weak KES = weak NSE.

Waiting for the golden handcuff tales.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Mart_Consult
#47 Posted : Monday, December 22, 2014 6:44:33 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/7/2013
Posts: 127
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
streetwise wrote:
Why are they scaring, it only means the locals now appreciate the stock market much better than before. If these local are many in number i.e. buyer of small number of shares it may also mean that you will never miss someone to sell or buy from. To me this is a better scenario.

On the other hand when the foreigner decide to come back to the market you can make a kill



What it means is that the vibe that ropes ordinary wanjiku in is out, that is, ''There's (quick) money to be made at the NSE...buy this, that and that''...unfortunately they are buying at highs ignorant of all techs and in some cases fundies (how else would you explain Mumias?!!) ...

Foreign and Local institutional do their research well, and respond to Intl market news/ movements. Golden handcuffs as @Hisah says will check-in...and then tales of burnt fingers and local investors saying they lost Kshs. (they bought high, forced to sell at a loss) at the NSE will suffice once again ruining the reputation amongst other future investors.

Reasons people should use, not common, but their own sense when investing.
I went into the (Ferry) industry knowing the same thing I knew with all other businesses I went into- Nothing. Then I built it from there. - Sheldon Adelson (Titans at the Table- Giants of Macau)
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kryptonite
#48 Posted : Monday, December 22, 2014 10:42:03 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/1/2010
Posts: 272
Location: Nairobi
hisah wrote:
littledove wrote:
these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!

INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%

Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%


@littledove - thanks for this treasure snippet smile

So both local and foreign institutionals have been on the sellside in 2014 while the market rallied into heavy resistance forest (5000-5500 layers). Meanwhile wanjikus piled in... Ai caramba!

Since Sept 22nd when NSE20 closed @5406 the slide has now broken below 5000 handle with the market closing @4910 on Dec 19. The week starting on Dec 15th saw some heavy turnover (heavyweight counters) for 3 days in a row and in the process NSE20 skidded below the 5000 handle since Aug 2014.

Q1 2015 will be critical for the bulls to hold the fort. If not, we're just getting started on the lower lows journey! If mpesa bank fails to break above 15 with aplomb on the next attempt that will be the best signal. Watch out for the banks they're weak. They've been so since Nov 2013 and I've seemed to be a madman as they rallied. If they reverse their 2014 gains, the market will be in a bear...

And lastly USD > KES 90 is a formidable NSE bulls opponent. Weak KES = weak NSE.

Waiting for the golden handcuff tales.



Thanks for this analysis @hisah.

Your insights, together with that of other members here, have been really helpful. Another observation in line with above analyses, is the drop in 'Plots for sale' threads on here. I remember this was one of your other indicators for a topping/maxing out at the NSE.

The harder you work, the luckier you get
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Mukiri
#49 Posted : Monday, December 22, 2014 12:17:47 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
hisah wrote:
littledove wrote:
these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!

INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%

Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%


@littledove - thanks for this treasure snippet smile

So both local and foreign institutionals have been on the sellside in 2014 while the market rallied into heavy resistance forest (5000-5500 layers). Meanwhile wanjikus piled in... Ai caramba!

Since Sept 22nd when NSE20 closed @5406 the slide has now broken below 5000 handle with the market closing @4910 on Dec 19. The week starting on Dec 15th saw some heavy turnover (heavyweight counters) for 3 days in a row and in the process NSE20 skidded below the 5000 handle since Aug 2014.

Q1 2015 will be critical for the bulls to hold the fort. If not, we're just getting started on the lower lows journey! If mpesa bank fails to break above 15 with aplomb on the next attempt that will be the best signal. Watch out for the banks they're weak. They've been so since Nov 2013 and I've seemed to be a madman as they rallied. If they reverse their 2014 gains, the market will be in a bear...

And lastly USD > KES 90 is a formidable NSE bulls opponent. Weak KES = weak NSE.

Waiting for the golden handcuff tales.

Yes. And it still surprises me when you sing the same song. KCB 20s to 60s na wimbo ni ule ule? Ego?d'oh!

Proverbs 19:21
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Kagame
#50 Posted : Monday, December 22, 2014 3:00:28 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/1/2014
Posts: 47
Mukiri wrote:
hisah wrote:
littledove wrote:
these numbers means alot, but to me they are scaring!

INVESTOR PROFILE AT NSE
Q3 2013
Foreign corporate 40%
foreign individuals 0.6%
local corporate 37%
local individuals 20%

Q3 2014
Foreign corporate 21%
foreign individuals 1%
local corporate 25%
local individuals 52%


@littledove - thanks for this treasure snippet smile

So both local and foreign institutionals have been on the sellside in 2014 while the market rallied into heavy resistance forest (5000-5500 layers). Meanwhile wanjikus piled in... Ai caramba!

Since Sept 22nd when NSE20 closed @5406 the slide has now broken below 5000 handle with the market closing @4910 on Dec 19. The week starting on Dec 15th saw some heavy turnover (heavyweight counters) for 3 days in a row and in the process NSE20 skidded below the 5000 handle since Aug 2014.

Q1 2015 will be critical for the bulls to hold the fort. If not, we're just getting started on the lower lows journey! If mpesa bank fails to break above 15 with aplomb on the next attempt that will be the best signal. Watch out for the banks they're weak. They've been so since Nov 2013 and I've seemed to be a madman as they rallied. If they reverse their 2014 gains, the market will be in a bear...

And lastly USD > KES 90 is a formidable NSE bulls opponent. Weak KES = weak NSE.

Waiting for the golden handcuff tales.

Yes. And it still surprises me when you sing the same song. KCB 20s to 60s na wimbo ni ule ule? Ego?d'oh!


The bear will only come when least expected.you can't be saying the same over one year while as money has been made and will continue to be made.hiyo ni porojo tupu.
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