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uchumi
chi20
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 7:07:31 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/24/2008
Posts: 223
we have waited for this counter for nearly four years now. the soonest it troops back to nse, possibly mid feb, i believe we will recoup, and possibly make a kill on our investment. the consistent growth year to year for the last two years and high expectations will help bouy the share from 14 to possibly 30 in less than six months.
my two cents.
gathinga
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 7:18:31 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
Not sure about this. The shares will be substantially diluted coz of entry of new capital converted from debenture. Am not sure how the debenture will be converted. Will it be ordinary sharecapital or will it be preference shares like KPLC. Its better for us old shareholders that it comes in as preference shares.

Uchumi is also facing significant challenges in their business from competoition (Nakumatt, Tuskers and all the rest) and they may not immediately win over investors till people start to see good results on their shop floors
VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 10:24:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Uchumi needs to revamp the stores so don't expect dividends for at least 2 years. The situation will be similar to NBK which hasn't paid dividends for years.

Many existing shareholders will sell just to bail out of Uchumi. The question is... who will buy?

Dilution will happen (ordinary or preference) since the existing Shareholders refused to step up to the plate in the past few years whenever Uchumi wanted to raise capital
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the sage
#4 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 10:42:50 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/20/2008
Posts: 367
@Chi20, I doubt, should the government convert debt into ordinary shares they will really dilute the company. I think that is the most probable action since converting its debt into preferrential shares is a loan by any other name.
mukiha
#5 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 11:41:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Say I place a buy order with the brokers at 5 bob; will get sellers? May be....

My advise would be this; you've waited this long, you can wait longer. Don't sell at a loss.

In Jan 2006, NSE-20 was in the region of 4,200, today it is around 3,600....

If Uchumi had never been suspended, do you expect that it would have outperformed the rest of the market?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 12:03:35 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
IMHO... the price will drop to around 3/- but then rapidly rise... I think the 5/- number may not be off.

The CATCH is that you have to be patient... Most people are not...

As @mukiha said... if you have waited for 4 years (how long has it been?) then why not wait a little longer.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 12:05:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Uchumi made 420mn in PAT through June 30 2009. Since the 'news' from Uchumi has been positive, more suppliers would be confident of supplying to Uchumi.

I hear that Uchumi pays faster than Nakumatt!!!

If Uchumi can pull in 500mn in 2009-10 (& similar performance in 2010-11) then it ca pay a dividend in 2012.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
muganda
#8 Posted : Friday, January 29, 2010 11:12:06 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
(Bloomberg) -- Uchumi Supermarket Ltd. of Kenya shareholders voted to end the company’s receivership at a shareholders’ meeting in Nairobi today.

The company’s debenture wll be converted into shares of 10 shillings each, Receiver Manager Jonathan Ciano said at the meeting today.
muganda
#9 Posted : Friday, January 29, 2010 11:18:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Did anyone here get to attend the meeting? From what I gather online,
* There was a battle of water tycoon brands - shareholders plied with mt.kenyan of kimanirugendo and dasani of chriskirubi
* And even Uchumi has reached the level of digital annual reports on CD
Kaffir
#10 Posted : Friday, January 29, 2010 3:59:45 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/8/2008
Posts: 77
Planned total shares of 262.5 million, up from 180m - a smaller increase in shares than i had expected. Their target of 500m earnings for the current year would therefore translate to a targeted EPS of about 1.9shs. Shs 19 as trading price seems feasible (translating to a PE of 10) in the short to medium term.
I dont really see a price under 10shs.
But, lets wait and see. This market has its surprises..
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