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What are the odds...
Djinn
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 8:17:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
While airing the ACN, KBC have been running a competition asking viewers to...and if I may paraphrase..

"Predict which team will score the first goal AND which minute the first goal will be scored AND which team will win AND the final score"

All that to win Kshs 60,000. Hmmm

Personally I think its a poor way to use premium rate SMS to make money. Think of all the variables
- at least 90 mins (to say when the first goal is scored - two matches have gone into extra time without goals) (i.e. 90 possible answers) X (times)
- Two teams (to say which will score first - two answers) X
- Two teams (to say which will win - two answers) X
- 80+ possible final scores (given the teams strengths - 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, etc 1-1, 1-2, 1-3 etc 2-0, 2-1, 2-2, 3-0, 3-4, 3-1 etc)....80+ possible answers for either team)


Given all the above (never mind other "variable variables" like extra time, penalty shots, etc) what are the odds that anyone can get all four predictions right?
McReggae
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 8:31:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
Wizi wa ngawira!!!
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
Djinn
#3 Posted : Tuesday, January 26, 2010 8:42:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
if you assume at most 5 goals - then there are possibly 30 different end results as SCORE(and 60 different results if you mention the team e.g. 1-3 Cameroun, 1-3 Zambia, 0-1 Cameroun, 0-1 Zambia).

The other thing, ANOTHER variable...if a match goes past extra time into penalties (as did Zambia vs Nigeria) - how do you decide the time of the "first goal"?

Pity about Zambia - they were MUCH MUCH more superior to Nigeria...
albertross
#4 Posted : Thursday, January 28, 2010 5:43:33 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/20/2007
Posts: 98
@ Djinn, these questions posed by KBC are designed to make sure no one wins this money.

As you say, what are the oddds, you are between a rock and a hard place if you try this.

You may get out, but chances are, you won't!!
bkismat
#5 Posted : Thursday, January 28, 2010 7:22:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/23/2009
Posts: 2,375
d'oh! its unwinnable
It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt...
-Mark Twain
popi
#6 Posted : Thursday, January 28, 2010 10:29:48 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/22/2009
Posts: 44
Location: Nairobi
where is BLCB?
Djinn
#7 Posted : Friday, January 29, 2010 5:39:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/13/2008
Posts: 1,565
popi wrote:
where is BLCB?


Betting Licencing and Control Board...if you notice for competitions/raffles/lotteries there is usually a small BLCB licence number given...
Kamaa
#8 Posted : Friday, January 29, 2010 6:10:11 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 10/6/2007
Posts: 1,177
Location: Nairobi - Kenya
hawa ni wezi! and only ignorant will fall into their trap..
When you hear what I say, you will not understand. When you see what I do, you will not comprehend
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