Unga Group FY 2014-15

What is Unga worth?
To re-phrase, what should Unga be valued at?

Current "Market Value" is KES 3bn and includes well-known Maize and Wheat (products) brands. Also animal feeds.

http://www.businessdaily...0/-/32pett/-/index.html

Alpha Grain Millers, the owners of Kifaru maize and wheat flour brands, last month opened a $10.5 million (Sh940 million) plant in Athi River to expand output.The factory can produce 300 tonnes of maize flour and 150 tonnes of wheat flour daily.

South Africa’s Tiger Brands earlier this year moved to acquire Kenya’s Rafiki Mills and Magic Oven Bakeries in a deal estimated at Sh2.1 billion.

The manufacturer of the Soko maize flour has bought out a rival miller for more than Sh200 million as it seeks to expand its market share in the competitive packaged food business. Thika-based Capwell Industries, which also produces Pearl and Ranee rice brands, has bought the maize milling assets of neighbouring Chania Flour Mills, which produces Chania Star and Chania Citizen brands.

It should be noted that Rafiki might be larger than Unga in terms of market share. That is, if BD is to be believed.

Genghis capital have a valuation of Kes. 65.32 on this. I had to pull the chart which i havent liked

I am not a Chartist, so you have to explain what the chart means!

I looked at the numbers. I see PAT growth in 2014-15:

1) after the installation of the new Wheat Mill [Ongoing]
2) sale of Bullpak [One time]
3) Reduced expensive local debt [Ongoing but can vary substantially]
4) Reduced maize prices [Temporary until politicians jump in]
5) Growth in animal feeds business [Ongoing]
6) Possible turnaround of Uganda now that Unga (Kenya) owns 100% [Ongoing]
7) Land holdings excess of needs [Far out in the future]

This requires execution and cash. Cash from sale of Bullpak plus a property on Ngong Road. The purchase of Ennsvalley will need cash too.

Will the Nedgwas take in a Strategic Investor who has experience in food FMCGs?
Will the Ndegwas sell out to a foreign firm who wants in?
Or will the Ndegwas try to pull a Rea on minority shareholders?

Am neither a chartist in the true sense of the term

I check the charts to ensure i don't catch buses that have left the stage. And this look like it’s had a good run this year. Can’t afford to get stuck like those who got in 2007 – 2013. All the best señor