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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote: Eventually something gotta give. E$ sell at 1.2725 SL 1.2768. Aiming for a move below 1.2500.  Out with 70 pips. Will re-enter a short on completion of wave (iv) at about 1.2689. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:mnandii wrote:Eventually something gotta give. E$ sell at 1.2725 SL 1.2768. Aiming for a move below 1.2500. Out with 70 pips. Will re-enter a short on completion of wave (iv) at about 1.2689. Note that wave (iii) is FIB. 2.618 X wave (i). Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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 Managed 23 pips more on a move to downside. E$ should not move below 1.2500 as I had suggested earlier. From the structure of the wave pattern above, E$ is likely forming a leading diagonal. A leading diagonal is a five wave pattern where all the sub-waves are threes. So we expect E$ to bottom at about 1.2564 then turn sharply upward and above 1.2800. That would be more than 300 pips.  Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Brent and WTI have been sold to the dogs this month catching many on the wrong foot as depicted by the sizable selloff as bulls swiftly close positions as critical support levels crater. Many oil producing economies that had planned their national budgets with oil priced at an average of $95 will definitely get a revenue shaving. On the firing line Venezuela, Nigeria, Ghana and small producing nations will end up with ugly current account deficits. Those currencies will crater vs the strengthening USD in yet another selloff round... Has someone unleashed the oil weapon? ** When prices of most commodities collapse as witnessed this year something is about to snap in the financial markets! Derivatives are blinking red... ** Between now and the next US πρόεδρος or 总裁 selection I believe a larger correction will be unleashed! The encrypted word can be translated to get the meaning... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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He he he! gotta love the beautiful currency moves. Gu so far played by the book, and now at support but bear to resume. For now that gold is a long, no doubt about that. And yen is just crazy, I don't trust that fall. I expect next week and the one after to be bull. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Ceinz wrote:He he he! gotta love the beautiful currency moves. Gu so far played by the book, and now at support but bear to resume.
For now that gold is a long, no doubt about that.
And yen is just crazy, I don't trust that fall. I expect next week and the one after to be bull. I like such crazy volatility. Whiplash markets easily expose the one trick traders/hedge funds/fund managers as they get knocked out. Volatility is a necessity to weed out weak hands that find it hard to stand a shakeout.
Strangely midterm bullish structure is still intact in equities unless they slide 20% or lower like a number of commodos. The recent vol spike in spx is similar to the spike back in Aug 2011. I expect equities to resume uptrend, test the highs and rump above in 2015.
Closed the Dow and FTSE shorts since objectives met - Dow went down more that my 1000pts target and FTSE also cratered below my 6200 target. Trades were active since Sept 23rd.
- GBP$ has played as expected.
- Oil (WTI) to has cratered to $80 target.
- JPY has been quite stubborn.
- Aussie and kiwi still weighed down by commodo bears.
- Gold if it can retest 1180, leak below to test 1080-1100 that's the time I can call it a long for a year... For now seems like a bounce until it breaks above 1400.
- Next big commodo trade is cocoa. Below 3000 handle is inviting sizable shorts.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:Ceinz wrote:He he he! gotta love the beautiful currency moves. Gu so far played by the book, and now at support but bear to resume.
For now that gold is a long, no doubt about that.
And yen is just crazy, I don't trust that fall. I expect next week and the one after to be bull. I like such crazy volatility. Whiplash markets easily expose the one trick traders/hedge funds/fund managers as they get knocked out. Volatility is a necessity to weed out weak hands that find it hard to stand a shakeout.
Strangely midterm bullish structure is still intact in equities unless they slide 20% or lower like a number of commodos. The recent vol spike in spx is similar to the spike back in Aug 2011. I expect equities to resume uptrend, test the highs and rump above in 2015.
Closed the Dow and FTSE shorts since objectives met - Dow went down more that my 1000pts target and FTSE also cratered below my 6200 target. Trades were active since Sept 23rd.
- GBP$ has played as expected.
- Oil (WTI) to has cratered to $80 target.
- JPY has been quite stubborn.
- Aussie and kiwi still weighed down by commodo bears.
- Gold if it can retest 1180, leak below to test 1080-1100 that's the time I can call it a long for a year... For now seems like a bounce until it breaks above 1400.
- Next big commodo trade is cocoa. Below 3000 handle is inviting sizable shorts.
I'm long uj @ 106 .2 lots will add another .1 target around 109 by close of the month. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Swiss gold referendum holds risks for francAnother referendum means volatility is coming to CHF just like GBP... Fantastic! That €CHF SNB peg @1.20 watch out for the fireworks  As usual, if you don't fancy volatility sit on your hands $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Will be keenly watching USDJPY in NY session. Bullish if 108 handle doesn't breakdown. This will be a quick trade in order to avoid FOMC chopiness tomorrow. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:Will be keenly watching USDJPY in NY session. Bullish if 108 handle doesn't breakdown. This will be a quick trade in order to avoid FOMC chopiness tomorrow. Ceinz wrote:I'm long uj @ 106 .2 lots will add another .1 target around 109 by close of the month. Still holding on my long trades, targeting 109s “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:hisah wrote:Will be keenly watching USDJPY in NY session. Bullish if 108 handle doesn't breakdown. This will be a quick trade in order to avoid FOMC chopiness tomorrow. Ceinz wrote:I'm long uj @ 106 .2 lots will add another .1 target around 109 by close of the month. Still holding on my long trades, targeting 109s Fomc finally gives the dollar some strength and sees GU n uj play as expected. I see Uj closing the month @ 110. “small step for man”
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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RTRS - BOJ: EXPANDS BASE MONEY TARGET TO 80 TRLN YEN RTRS - BOJ: UPS JGB BUYING BY 30 TRLN YEN PER YEAR RTRS - BOJ: PURSUING QQE IN AN OPEN-ENDED MANNER, RELEASES ESTIMATES FOR ITS ASSET PURCHASES FOR NEXT YEAR Could you wake up to better news than that as a JPY short???? USDJPY high at 110.65 and still surging, Nikkei up 4.14% and posts session highs of 16455.84, S&P back above 2000.....looks like we might be set for some all time highs today You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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alutacontinua wrote:RTRS - BOJ: EXPANDS BASE MONEY TARGET TO 80 TRLN YEN RTRS - BOJ: UPS JGB BUYING BY 30 TRLN YEN PER YEAR RTRS - BOJ: PURSUING QQE IN AN OPEN-ENDED MANNER, RELEASES ESTIMATES FOR ITS ASSET PURCHASES FOR NEXT YEAR Could you wake up to better news than that as a JPY short???? USDJPY high at 110.65 and still surging, Nikkei up 4.14% and posts session highs of 16455.84, S&P back above 2000.....looks like we might be set for some all time highs today Definately, nothing could be better than that yen short. “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:Ceinz wrote:hisah wrote:Will be keenly watching USDJPY in NY session. Bullish if 108 handle doesn't breakdown. This will be a quick trade in order to avoid FOMC chopiness tomorrow. Ceinz wrote:I'm long uj @ 106 .2 lots will add another .1 target around 109 by close of the month. Still holding on my long trades, targeting 109s Fomc finally gives the dollar some strength and sees GU n uj play as expected. I see Uj closing the month @ 110. Closed 0.1 @ 109.15, 0.1 @ 109.35, 0.1 still on. Thanks you BOJ, I wish I had been more heavier. Target now around 111.5 ( next long term fibo, 50%) “small step for man”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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Ceinz wrote:Ceinz wrote:Ceinz wrote:hisah wrote:Will be keenly watching USDJPY in NY session. Bullish if 108 handle doesn't breakdown. This will be a quick trade in order to avoid FOMC chopiness tomorrow. Ceinz wrote:I'm long uj @ 106 .2 lots will add another .1 target around 109 by close of the month. Still holding on my long trades, targeting 109s Fomc finally gives the dollar some strength and sees GU n uj play as expected. I see Uj closing the month @ 110. Closed 0.1 @ 109.15, 0.1 @ 109.35, 0.1 still on. Thanks you BOJ, I wish I had been more heavier. Target now around 111.5 ( next long term fibo, 50%) Last 0.1 exited @ 111.25. “small step for man”
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/23/2011 Posts: 304
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Barrier @111.50 did not stand a chance....hearing of offers @111.70 worth about 1B and an even bigger barrier at 112 with stops just above it. You dont have to be great to START but you have to start to be GREAT!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@ceinz - keep an eye on gold. The lower it heads towards $1100 and lower the better for long term play on the long side. For now no need to fight the trend. 1350-1400 zone has heavy barriers. If oil can sink to $50 that too should present a nice scoop for long term buy. $CHF - Still a buy. Target 1.05 - 1.10. Crazy! $JPY - already surpassed the 110 expectation. For CHF the referendum is making it a nice play just like GBP in Sept. S&P and Dow at all time highs as expected despite breaking down their rising wedges?! Big vol checked in at the lows and i was forced close the shorts on Dow and FTSE. I believe crazy highs are coming coz of that vol spike just like Aug 2011. Stocks rallied hard from there to date while gold nosedived... No need to fight the central banks bid machines unless you can also print money... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/7/2009 Posts: 1,032 Location: Sea of Transquility
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hisah wrote:@ceinz - keep an eye on gold. The lower it heads towards $1100 and lower the better for long term play on the long side. For now no need to fight the trend. 1350-1400 zone has heavy barriers.
If oil can sink to $50 that too should present a nice scoop for long term buy.
$CHF - Still a buy. Target 1.05 - 1.10. Crazy!
$JPY - already surpassed the 110 expectation.
For CHF the referendum is making it a nice play just like GBP in Sept.
S&P and Dow at all time highs as expected despite breaking down their rising wedges?! Big vol checked in at the lows and i was forced close the shorts on Dow and FTSE. I believe crazy highs are coming coz of that vol spike just like Aug 2011. Stocks rallied hard from there to date while gold nosedived... No need to fight the central banks bid machines unless you can also print money... I beg to differ, on gold and oil. Looking at the trend and the time that we are in in the year, I doubt if the trend can change in these two months may be from Jan. For now my bias on both is to the south. My focus in this two months will still be on GU and UJ. I expect, the end of QE on the usd just announced to see the bullishness of the dollar continue unchecked, that combined with further QE on the yen should see the uj baby soar further, may be to the 120s. On GU, the sell off is far from over. I'm still eyeing the 1.588 bounce last month. If we take this out, we can expect a fall to the 1.54 levels. “small step for man”
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Dim sum debut: UK completes first renminbi bond sale in push to build foreign currency reservesQuote:City dealmakers scored an unexpectedly big success yesterday, selling a 3bn renminbi (£300m) bond for the government.
The sale gives the square mile a welcome boost after the turmoil of the past month after the Scottish referendum, wobbles in the flotation market and uncertainty over oil prices.
It is the first time a western state has issued bonds in the Chinese currency, and helps to open up a new industry for London as the main off-shore centre for the renminbi.
Investors from across the world bought into the so-called dim sum bond, with the order book coming in at 5.8bn renminbi.
Now you know why GBP has been taking it in the chin #USDByPass - The USD hegemony is crumbling at a frightening pace! $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Anyone trading the cocoa short I highlighted if it broke below $3000 handle? This one is going down hard...  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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