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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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hisah wrote:@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold. Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd. Two simple rules to ride the equities market: - 1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. 2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them 3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount. When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality. If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them  Define value @ NSE. It appears value = Emotions = (Repeated) News headines
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Akenyan2014 wrote:hisah wrote:@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold. Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd. Three simple rules to ride the equities market: - 1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. 2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them 3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount. When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality. If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them Define value @ NSE. It appears value = Emotions = (Repeated) News headines Indeed value without definition is too open.
Value in this case is fundies.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2013 Posts: 1,977 Location: Here
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hisah wrote:Akenyan2014 wrote:hisah wrote:@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold. Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd. Three simple rules to ride the equities market: - 1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. 2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them 3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount. When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality. If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them Define value @ NSE. It appears value = Emotions = (Repeated) News headines Indeed value without definition is too open.
Value in this case is fundies. @chief am watching keenly expecting some discounts this Nov/Dec period Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/17/2011 Posts: 627 Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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CMA lifts cap on foreign stakes amid reservationsQuote:“We’ve been pushing hard to get many Kenyans to participate in owning listed companies by at least 25 per cent.
But, we may have no option if we are to join the international market and play in that league,” Mr Karina said.
He said it had been challenging to woo more Kenyans into the capital markets as many of them are risk averse. To hell with wanjikus, if they will not participate let us go the foreigners way. Hot money coming soon. When the bullish cycle is done wanjikus will be buying that expensive party ticket as hot money pulls out. -> That is the message I read from the market masters. Positive - hot money to load up the market to crazy highs. Negative - if a GFC event emerges, hot money will crash the market - fat-tail discounts. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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hisah wrote:@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold. Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd. Three simple rules to ride the equities market: - 1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. 2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount. When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality. If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them This is a tricky one, right? Any current examples?
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
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Kenya doesn't need hot money. Hot money is the kind of money that comes chasing for short term gains in the capital markets. It's not real investment money that's coming to finance new industries or put up infrastructure which is what the country needs. If hot money is given free reign at the NSE, the NSE is going to become a much more risky place. It's going to increase the volatility of the stock market as hot money tends to exaggerate both bulls and bears. And of course, there's a broader macro economic risk which affects the currency exchange rates a la the Asian financial crisis when hot money decides to liquidate en masse leading to mass sell offs of the KES which could see the value of the currency plummet leading to a surge in the cost of basic commodities leading to riots in the streets - see what happened in the Asian financial crisis. Either the CBK imposes foreign exchange controls or the CMA imposes a minimum holding period for the foreign investors. At this stage the brokers can only see the big fat commissions that will come from this activity and should not be relied on to provide impartial advice. If we have a repeat of the Asian financial crisis in Kenya, it will likely be attributed to this shortsighted rule. On a different point, we are likely to see the likes of EABL and BAT become wholly owned foreign companies. Then they'll just register a company in Mauritius, stop paying 30% corporate tax given our mindless agreement with Mauritius - http://www.businessdaily.../-/q4nuo4z/-/index.html and just like that we will lose a lot of taxes that pay for public spending in Kenya.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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@mvufanisi - So what? Kenyans love HOT MONEY. How many Kenyans invest in factories rather than 'plots' they want to flip? Or buy into pyramid schemes that promise 2x in year? And nature is volatile. What is needed are more instruments to hedge against volatility. I understand where you are coming from but the HOT MONEY can also cause the investors losses. The smart and patient investor can buy during the bears [rush to exit] and sell during the bulls [rush to enter]. We saw plenty of this over the past few months when the smart folks sold off the over-hyped shares e.g. when Centum hit 80 and HFCK hit 60. As for 'taxes' ... there has to be a concerted move away from Income tax to Consumption Tax. Why tax income when consumption is easier to tax. And tax luxury goods (e.g. jewelry, luxury cars, etc) at a higher rate than basics e.g. food and medicine. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 7/2/2014 Posts: 123
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Mukiri wrote:hisah wrote:@Boris - keep an eye on mpesa bank as discussed (ref Jul 6th). When it breaks below 11 - 11.50 support level, the market will catch a cold. Britam, NSE, member and Centum bulls my prayers are still with you since Sept 23rd. Three simple rules to ride the equities market: - 1. In a bullish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. 2. In a bearish market, buy the stock that is stronger than the market. -> Some counters rally in bear markets. Learn to spot them3. Whether in a bullish or bear market, buy value. This way you benefit from the wake up (delayed) rally or the sizable selling discount. When many stocks outperform the market, a correction always emerges to reset valuations back to reality. If you know how to buy value, discount periods (corrections/selloffs) are the best hunting grounds and you always look forward to them This is a tricky one, right? Any current examples? KENGEN ,
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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if kenyans do not fancy stocks, open it up for foreigners. weirdly it may increase the popularity of stocks when unprecedented bulls occur. @VVS. I cashed in on HFck at 50. the rally was too much, awaiting rights issue next yr The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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