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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mucene wrote:hisah wrote:If GDP is rebased today by whatever factor does that add more KES to your coffers to boost your purchasing power? It's a mirage. Same as removing some CPI items from the inflation formula to fudge the inflation rate downwards. They did this in Feb 2010. Now its GDP rebasing. 2011 cycle will repeat again just like the rising and setting of the sun!
When you are done debating with yourself about the above reality check then read this article - http://ow.ly/C411X
Rebasing is meant to accurately measure the GDP, that is, get to know what the size of the current GDP more accurately. Wow! So this will reduce the unemployment rate, poor access to education and healthcare, insurance and food since KE is now an overnight middle income econ... Poor wanjiku.
The way I see it is this is just a gimmick to permit for more gok borrowing by making the debt to GDP ratio appear small. Since the tax base cannot shoulder the expected debt binge from the coming sizable gok borrowing, massive inflation pressure is coming.
$KES is already telling the story. Soon wanjikus will start asking why their pockets are shrinking while the econ is a middle income "rich" econ.
And I pray that bond vigilantes don't shark in on the eurobond when they start getting uneasy with the shaky fiscal policies. That will be really painful and worse if oil will not be flowing by 2017.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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hisah wrote:Mucene wrote:hisah wrote:If GDP is rebased today by whatever factor does that add more KES to your coffers to boost your purchasing power? It's a mirage. Same as removing some CPI items from the inflation formula to fudge the inflation rate downwards. They did this in Feb 2010. Now its GDP rebasing. 2011 cycle will repeat again just like the rising and setting of the sun!
When you are done debating with yourself about the above reality check then read this article - http://ow.ly/C411X
Rebasing is meant to accurately measure the GDP, that is, get to know what the size of the current GDP more accurately. Wow! So this will reduce the unemployment rate, poor access to education and healthcare, insurance and food since KE is now an overnight middle income econ... Poor wanjiku.
The way I see it is this is just a gimmick to permit for more gok borrowing by making the debt to GDP ratio appear small. Since the tax base cannot shoulder the expected debt binge from the coming sizable gok borrowing, massive inflation pressure is coming.
$KES is already telling the story. Soon wanjikus will start asking why their pockets are shrinking while the econ is a middle income "rich" econ.
And I pray that bond vigilantes don't shark in on the eurobond when they start getting uneasy with the shaky fiscal policies. That will be really painful and worse if oil will not be flowing by 2017.
@hisah please look at the break-even for shale oil production in the next 3 years it's headed to $ 65 so our oil in 2017 will be coming to a market with a low price on the world market
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Rank: Member Joined: 12/17/2013 Posts: 118
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Mucene wrote:hisah wrote:If GDP is rebased today by whatever factor does that add more KES to your coffers to boost your purchasing power? It's a mirage. Same as removing some CPI items from the inflation formula to fudge the inflation rate downwards. They did this in Feb 2010. Now its GDP rebasing. 2011 cycle will repeat again just like the rising and setting of the sun!
When you are done debating with yourself about the above reality check then read this article - http://ow.ly/C411X
Rebasing is meant to accurately measure the GDP, that is, get to know what the size of the current GDP more accurately. The IMF,WB and the world elites want to lend money to kenya as they prepare to take oil come 2017.If u r keen u wil notice this is just another advice from IMF!!!What for..one may ask.They are in the business of lending and KE debt ratio is looking ugly and needed to be reset.Check our debt ratio after yesterday.Genious overnght? These things are never taught in skul... KCB,NMG,PAFR
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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mkonomtupu wrote:hisah wrote:Mucene wrote:hisah wrote:If GDP is rebased today by whatever factor does that add more KES to your coffers to boost your purchasing power? It's a mirage. Same as removing some CPI items from the inflation formula to fudge the inflation rate downwards. They did this in Feb 2010. Now its GDP rebasing. 2011 cycle will repeat again just like the rising and setting of the sun!
When you are done debating with yourself about the above reality check then read this article - http://ow.ly/C411X
Rebasing is meant to accurately measure the GDP, that is, get to know what the size of the current GDP more accurately. Wow! So this will reduce the unemployment rate, poor access to education and healthcare, insurance and food since KE is now an overnight middle income econ... Poor wanjiku.
The way I see it is this is just a gimmick to permit for more gok borrowing by making the debt to GDP ratio appear small. Since the tax base cannot shoulder the expected debt binge from the coming sizable gok borrowing, massive inflation pressure is coming.
$KES is already telling the story. Soon wanjikus will start asking why their pockets are shrinking while the econ is a middle income "rich" econ.
And I pray that bond vigilantes don't shark in on the eurobond when they start getting uneasy with the shaky fiscal policies. That will be really painful and worse if oil will not be flowing by 2017.
@hisah please look at the break-even for shale oil production in the next 3 years it's headed to $ 65 so our oil in 2017 will be coming to a market with a low price on the world market How are you able to calculate that? "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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CADBURY'S closing down its manufacturing plant in Nrb and like paka, they will be importing product from Egypt and SA. We need to boycott some of these products "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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I see this as a wake up call, why manufuture at a hihger cost than those who are importing. Solution import also and compete on other areas of the business. That is why Kenya does no manufactre cars yet there are so many dealers selling cars. Congrats for the two companies for seeing the light.
On the convas what does Kenya need to do to reverse the trend.. (1) Efficiency (2) Reduce or eliminate corruption (2) Lower cost of energy etc. etc. I know your list is longer.
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/6/2014 Posts: 268 Location: Nairobi, Kenya
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It looks like it's time to apply brakes on manufacturing counters. Their seem to be currently facing common tough-to-get-out-of problems: High production costs, tough competition and rogue regulation regimes. Eveready, Cadbury, EABL, MSC. @Hisah will the future of energy salvage anything here?
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/1/2013 Posts: 257
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Energy cost is the backbone of manufacturing,a nuclear power plant would solve these problems, How would we compete with the 1st world countries which are building machinery (submarines,ships) with nuclear reactors that require refuelling after every 70 years? No diagnosis,no pragnosis,no pragnosis no profit......Jesse livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/15/2013 Posts: 301
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murchr wrote:CADBURY'S closing down its manufacturing plant in Nrb and like paka, they will be importing product from Egypt and SA. We need to boycott some of these products how sad.....our inefficiencies in power production and transmission, and lack of adequate protection of locally produced products to imports, are further boosting the economies of countries like Egypt and China.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,824 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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I thought H.E the D-PORK William Samoei Ruto announced that cost of Electricity is going down by as much as 30% this month, kwani it was also empty talk? Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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