Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Kenya to rebase GDP; base from 2001 to 2009
Rank: Member Joined: 9/2/2010 Posts: 845
|
Kenya to rebase GDP. Base year changes from 2001 to 2009 Taking the cue from Nigeria? Highlights: "Kenya is set to achieve the key middle-income economic status next month following a government-led statistical review that is likely to increase the size of the country’s economy by a fifth to $50bn. Benjamin Macharia Muchiri, senior manager at the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, said the gross domestic product for 2009, the new base year, was “about 20 per cent higher than previously estimated”. He added: “Preliminary results for other years between 2006 and 2011 show revised GDPs going up by between 15 to 25 per cent.” The increase – expected to be announced in May, although 2014 quarterly figures will not be updated until September – would push Kenya’s GDP for 2009 to about $37bn. Applying the same jump to 2013 could put the country’s economy above $50bn. At that level, Kenya, a nation of more than 43m people, will enjoy a GDP per capita of more than $1,136, up from a current estimate of $943, and within the benchmark of $1,036 set by the World Bank for middle-income nations. Kenya’s bureau of statistics, which is changing the base year for calculating GDP from 2001 to 2009, says the upward revision reflects previously uncaptured data that shows growth in the manufacturing, agricultural, transport and communication sectors. The recalculations may still underestimate total GDP as 2009, the new base year, saw the country affected by drought that depressed agricultural output and household spending. The statistics bureau rejected 2008 as a possible replacement base year because of post-election violence that had a dramatic impact on the economy: growth fell to 1.5 per cent, down from 7 per cent the year before, and more than 1,100 people were killed." http://www.ft.com/intl/c...abdc0.html#axzz2yQV0EPwMAll my friends are heathens, take it slow. Wait for them to ask you who you know. Please don't make any sudden moves.
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 9/2/2010 Posts: 845
|
Even the new numbers might not be a true reflection. Kenya's GDP is probably above $60B already. An interesting read here on the understating of African GDPs. http://africanarguments....ssance-by-morten-jerven/All my friends are heathens, take it slow. Wait for them to ask you who you know. Please don't make any sudden moves.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/4/2006 Posts: 13,821 Location: Nairobi
|
this is quite interesting!! we are data poor! informal businesses may be racking in the big bucks but since we cannot account for them we appear worse off than we really are! All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 384
|
masukuma wrote:this is quite interesting!! we are data poor! informal businesses may be racking in the big bucks but since we cannot account for them we appear worse off than we really are!  Something Obi wan Kanobi explained in another thread kitambo..
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 11/26/2008 Posts: 2,097
|
Is Anne Waiguru aware of these latest developments??? "Never regret, if its good, its wonderful. If its bad, its experience."
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/15/2012 Posts: 1,110
|
[quote=innairobi]Taking the cue from Nigeria? Highlights: " Kenya is set to achieve the key middle-income economic status next month following a government-led statistical review that is likely to increase the size of the country’s economy by a fifth to $50bn. Benjamin Macharia Muchiri, senior manager at the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, said the gross domestic product for 2009, the new base year, was “about 20 per cent higher than previously estimated”. He added: “Preliminary results for other years between 2006 and 2011 show revised GDPs going up by between 15 to 25 per cent.” The increase – expected to be announced in May, although 2014 quarterly figures will not be updated until September – would push Kenya’s GDP for 2009 to about $37bn. Applying the same jump to 2013 could put the country’s economy above $50bn. At that level, Kenya, a nation of more than 43m people, will enjoy a GDP per capita of more than $1,136, up from a current estimate of $943, and within the benchmark of $1,036 set by the World Bank for middle-income nations. Kenya’s bureau of statistics, which is changing the base year for calculating GDP from 2001 to 2009, says the upward revision reflects previously uncaptured data that shows growth in the manufacturing, agricultural, transport and communication sectors. The recalculations may still underestimate total GDP as 2009, the new base year, saw the country affected by drought that depressed agricultural output and household spending. The statistics bureau rejected 2008 as a possible replacement base year because of post-election violence that had a dramatic impact on the economy: growth fell to 1.5 per cent, down from 7 per cent the year before, and more than 1,100 people were killed." http://www.ft.com/intl/c...bdc0.html#axzz2yQV0EPwM[/quote] Useless obsession with GDP. Is Kenya a middle-income country, really? That is so bookish. Live Full Die Empty - Les Brown.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/27/2012 Posts: 2,256 Location: Bandalungwa
|
Why are they focusing on changing numbers instead of trying to find ways to put the hoardes of unemployed youth to work ? Swali tu
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
|
Alba wrote:Why are they focusing on changing numbers instead of trying to find ways to put the hoardes of unemployed youth to work ? Swali tu Innovate guy wrote:Useless obsession with GDP. Is Kenya a middle-income country, really? That is so bookish.
You two need to make google your friend. Then ask why economies have to be evaluated in all ways. Its like telling the mechanic not to check your engine because all you need is new tires. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 3/19/2010 Posts: 3,504 Location: Uganda
|
Alba wrote:Why are they focusing on changing numbers instead of trying to find ways to put the hoardes of unemployed youth to work ? Swali tu isorite if you cant make ,it cook it!. anyway bill gates is 1.5times richer than our $50 billion economy.tuko bali sana. punda amecheka
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 10/9/2009 Posts: 311
|
long overdue. definitely a good thing. lets get africa's stats up to date with the rest of the world. Katika Jangwa la Jangili ndipo Pwagu hupata Pwaguzi.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/17/2008 Posts: 23,365 Location: Nairobi
|
murchr wrote:Alba wrote:Why are they focusing on changing numbers instead of trying to find ways to put the hoardes of unemployed youth to work ? Swali tu Innovate guy wrote:Useless obsession with GDP. Is Kenya a middle-income country, really? That is so bookish.
You two need to make google your friend. Then ask why economies have to be evaluated in all ways. Its like telling the mechanic not to check your engine because all you need is new tires. That is the point, and what is so wrong with revaluing our GDP if the figure out there gives a false impression??? ..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/15/2010 Posts: 625
|
GDP undercounting makes the rest of the world think that Africa is one giant slum and contributes to the negative image of the continent. GDP rebasing can point a more accurate picture and hopefully lead to more interest in investment.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 1,982 Location: matano manne
|
What about this debasing thing? Keenly watching this space. http://www.theeastafrica.../1/-/b2ek5e/-/index.html
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 1,982 Location: matano manne
|
hisah wrote:If GDP is rebased today by whatever factor does that add more KES to your coffers to boost your purchasing power? It's a mirage. Same as removing some CPI items from the inflation formula to fudge the inflation rate downwards. They did this in Feb 2010. Now its GDP rebasing. 2011 cycle will repeat again just like the rising and setting of the sun!
When you are done debating with yourself about the above reality check then read this article - http://ow.ly/C411X
@hISAH, Thanks, I understand all that. Question is: the long term impact of the rebasing on interest rates, and forex market. When government ceases or drastically reduces domestic borrowing then I'd expect the interest rates to go down (siteris peribus), while forex rates would be steady since inflows would be massive (by GoK, plus direct foreign investments).
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
Rahatupu wrote:hisah wrote:If GDP is rebased today by whatever factor does that add more KES to your coffers to boost your purchasing power? It's a mirage. Same as removing some CPI items from the inflation formula to fudge the inflation rate downwards. They did this in Feb 2010. Now its GDP rebasing. 2011 cycle will repeat again just like the rising and setting of the sun!
When you are done debating with yourself about the above reality check then read this article - http://ow.ly/C411X
@hISAH, Thanks, I understand all that. Question is: the long term impact of the rebasing on interest rates, and forex market. When government ceases or drastically reduces domestic borrowing then I'd expect the interest rates to go down (siteris peribus), while forex rates would be steady since inflows would be massive (by GoK, plus direct foreign investments). This will only be beneficial if gok manages the hydrocarbon revenues prudently and also boosts the manufacturing base as well as agribiz for more fx income earnings. Otherwise the eurobond will burn the fx reserves faster than a dynamite! International bond vigilantes are a nasty bunch when they smell blood...
What is a Bond Vigilante?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/15/2006 Posts: 3,905
|
The deed is done. Kenya has now overtaken Ethiopia, Ghana and Tunisia. Growth rate now 5.7% Should be safe as the first 2 have rebased to 2010 or later. South Africa GDP uses a base year of 1998 as compared to Nigeria's base year of 2010. When all is said and done, Kenya still behind all 3 countries in GDP per capita. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2...onomy-climbs-by-25-.html
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/26/2007 Posts: 6,514
|
Prepare for huge GoK borrowing to follow hot on the heels of this. Someone has to pay for the lifestyle... Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
|
KulaRaha wrote:Prepare for huge GoK borrowing to follow hot on the heels of this.
Someone has to pay for the lifestyle... This rebasing thing stinks just like the inflation methodology change back in 2010.
Debt binge coming up! Let's see how $KES will stay below 95/-
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/27/2012 Posts: 2,256 Location: Bandalungwa
|
I am not sure how all these smoke and mirrors with statistics help. Also it may trigger additional borrowing which is no good.
With all this rebasing , GDP will soon lose relevance. Uganda and Tanzania may soon rebase their GDP and claim to have passed Kenya.
In any case the most important stats are those that measure how Kenyans actually live:
1. Unemployment rate
2. Youth unemployment rate
3. Crime rate
4. Percentage under poverty
5. Purchasing power parity
6. Inflation
7. Exports value
8. Balance of payments
9. Percentage of population with piped water
10. Percentage with electricity
Tugange hayo. If Kenyans focus on these especially at election time, the country will be much better.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
|
Alba wrote:I am not sure how all these smoke and mirrors with statistics help. Also it may trigger additional borrowing which is no good.
With all this rebasing , GDP will soon lose relevance. Uganda and Tanzania may soon rebase their GDP and claim to have passed Kenya.
In any case the most important stats are those that measure how Kenyans actually live:
1. Unemployment rate
2. Youth unemployment rate
3. Crime rate
4. Percentage under poverty
5. Purchasing power parity
6. Inflation
7. Exports value
8. Balance of payments
9. Percentage of population with piped water
10. Percentage with electricity
Tugange hayo. If Kenyans focus on these especially at election time, the country will be much better. There's nothing wrong in knowing your networth even as an individual. If UG and TZ carryout their analysis and find that they are wealthier than KE. Good for them and no big deal. Life goes on "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Economy
»
Kenya to rebase GDP; base from 2001 to 2009
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|