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Kenya to rebase GDP; base from 2001 to 2009
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McReggae
#11 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 7:50:37 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/17/2008
Posts: 23,365
Location: Nairobi
murchr wrote:
Alba wrote:
Why are they focusing on changing numbers instead of trying to find ways to put the hoardes of unemployed youth to work ? Swali tu


Innovate guy wrote:
Useless obsession with GDP. Is Kenya a middle-income country, really? That is so bookish.


You two need to make google your friend. Then ask why economies have to be evaluated in all ways. Its like telling the mechanic not to check your engine because all you need is new tires.


That is the point, and what is so wrong with revaluing our GDP if the figure out there gives a false impression???
..."Wewe ni mtu mdogo sana....na mwenye amekuandika pia ni mtu mdogo sana!".
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mv_ufanisi
#12 Posted : Friday, April 11, 2014 11:33:21 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
GDP undercounting makes the rest of the world think that Africa is one giant slum and contributes to the negative image of the continent. GDP rebasing can point a more accurate picture and hopefully lead to more interest in investment.
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Rahatupu
#13 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 5:01:39 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 1,982
Location: matano manne
What about this debasing thing? Keenly watching this space.

http://www.theeastafrica.../1/-/b2ek5e/-/index.html
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Rahatupu
#14 Posted : Tuesday, September 30, 2014 11:50:46 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 1,982
Location: matano manne
hisah wrote:
Rahatupu wrote:
What about this debasing thing? Keenly watching this space.

http://www.theeastafrica...1/-/b2ek5e/-/index.html

If GDP is rebased today by whatever factor does that add more KES to your coffers to boost your purchasing power? It's a mirage. Same as removing some CPI items from the inflation formula to fudge the inflation rate downwards. They did this in Feb 2010. Now its GDP rebasing. 2011 cycle will repeat again just like the rising and setting of the sun!

When you are done debating with yourself about the above reality check then read this article - http://ow.ly/C411X




@hISAH, Thanks, I understand all that. Question is: the long term impact of the rebasing on interest rates, and forex market. When government ceases or drastically reduces domestic borrowing then I'd expect the interest rates to go down (siteris peribus), while forex rates would be steady since inflows would be massive (by GoK, plus direct foreign investments).
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hisah
#15 Posted : Tuesday, September 30, 2014 3:42:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Rahatupu wrote:
hisah wrote:
Rahatupu wrote:
What about this debasing thing? Keenly watching this space.

http://www.theeastafrica...1/-/b2ek5e/-/index.html

If GDP is rebased today by whatever factor does that add more KES to your coffers to boost your purchasing power? It's a mirage. Same as removing some CPI items from the inflation formula to fudge the inflation rate downwards. They did this in Feb 2010. Now its GDP rebasing. 2011 cycle will repeat again just like the rising and setting of the sun!

When you are done debating with yourself about the above reality check then read this article - http://ow.ly/C411X




@hISAH, Thanks, I understand all that. Question is: the long term impact of the rebasing on interest rates, and forex market. When government ceases or drastically reduces domestic borrowing then I'd expect the interest rates to go down (siteris peribus), while forex rates would be steady since inflows would be massive (by GoK, plus direct foreign investments).

This will only be beneficial if gok manages the hydrocarbon revenues prudently and also boosts the manufacturing base as well as agribiz for more fx income earnings. Otherwise the eurobond will burn the fx reserves faster than a dynamite! International bond vigilantes are a nasty bunch when they smell blood...

What is a Bond Vigilante?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, September 30, 2014 3:49 PM | Reason: Not specified
muganda
#16 Posted : Tuesday, September 30, 2014 3:55:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
The deed is done. Kenya has now overtaken Ethiopia, Ghana and Tunisia. Growth rate now 5.7%

Should be safe as the first 2 have rebased to 2010 or later. South Africa GDP uses a base year of 1998 as compared to Nigeria's base year of 2010.

When all is said and done, Kenya still behind all 3 countries in GDP per capita.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2...onomy-climbs-by-25-.html
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, September 30, 2014 4:08 PM | Reason: Not specified
KulaRaha
#17 Posted : Tuesday, September 30, 2014 4:05:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Prepare for huge GoK borrowing to follow hot on the heels of this.

Someone has to pay for the lifestyle...
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
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hisah
#18 Posted : Tuesday, September 30, 2014 4:39:02 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
KulaRaha wrote:
Prepare for huge GoK borrowing to follow hot on the heels of this.

Someone has to pay for the lifestyle...

This rebasing thing stinks just like the inflation methodology change back in 2010.

Debt binge coming up! Let's see how $KES will stay below 95/-

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Alba
#19 Posted : Wednesday, October 01, 2014 12:39:44 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/27/2012
Posts: 2,256
Location: Bandalungwa
I am not sure how all these smoke and mirrors with statistics help. Also it may trigger additional borrowing which is no good.

With all this rebasing , GDP will soon lose relevance. Uganda and Tanzania may soon rebase their GDP and claim to have passed Kenya.

In any case the most important stats are those that measure how Kenyans actually live:

1. Unemployment rate
2. Youth unemployment rate
3. Crime rate
4. Percentage under poverty
5. Purchasing power parity
6. Inflation
7. Exports value
8. Balance of payments
9. Percentage of population with piped water
10. Percentage with electricity

Tugange hayo. If Kenyans focus on these especially at election time, the country will be much better.
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, October 01, 2014 12:47 AM | Reason: Not specified
murchr
#20 Posted : Wednesday, October 01, 2014 2:02:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Alba wrote:
I am not sure how all these smoke and mirrors with statistics help. Also it may trigger additional borrowing which is no good.

With all this rebasing , GDP will soon lose relevance. Uganda and Tanzania may soon rebase their GDP and claim to have passed Kenya.

In any case the most important stats are those that measure how Kenyans actually live:

1. Unemployment rate
2. Youth unemployment rate
3. Crime rate
4. Percentage under poverty
5. Purchasing power parity
6. Inflation
7. Exports value
8. Balance of payments
9. Percentage of population with piped water
10. Percentage with electricity

Tugange hayo. If Kenyans focus on these especially at election time, the country will be much better.


There's nothing wrong in knowing your networth even as an individual. If UG and TZ carryout their analysis and find that they are wealthier than KE. Good for them and no big deal. Life goes on
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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