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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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hisah
#166 Posted : Tuesday, September 23, 2014 11:29:57 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@cnn - elliot wave theory is a nice TA tool that is quite accurate and even more powerful when combined with volume spread analysis.

This market is rallying into the resistance forest (5000 - 5500 zone) without EABL and Mpesa bank participation as well as a lot of price gap ups in several counters as panic buying ensues (signs of buying climax phase). On TA a lot of divergence is appearing on the RSI (relative strength) meter which is putting the bullish strength into question. Also 3 indices (NSE20, NASI and FTSE KE NSE15) are exhibiting rising wedge chart patterns (ending diagonal) which all point to a pending snappish reversal.

When the reversal comes people will not believe it when they get trapped i.e. price moving down faster than they can issue sell orders.

The bull trap has been setup nicely with market cap at this rate going to clock the same as GDP as the meltup continues?!? KES and KE econ are red signs which mr market has chosen to jump at the highway!
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, September 23, 2014 11:49 AM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#167 Posted : Tuesday, September 23, 2014 11:42:50 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
I can't take it anymore, I'm selling my banking stocks.

this is scary like a horror movie with a rollercoaster in it!!
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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kasibitta
#168 Posted : Tuesday, September 23, 2014 4:09:28 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
Aguytrying wrote:
I can't take it anymore, I'm selling my banking stocks.

this is scary like a horror movie with a rollercoaster in it!!



seems we are many of us.exit exit exit.

I need to regain my confidence of the NSE some day later.
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hisah
#169 Posted : Tuesday, September 23, 2014 5:10:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@mnandii - check out mpesa bank price action hinting that it will in coming weeks close below the 200 SMA on the daily chart. The price has floated above this SMA since Apr 18 2012. On exdiv day the SMA was tested @12.15, but price rebounded to close away from it. As long as price is below 12.70 the uptrend is about to end once a close below SMA 200 happens.

EQTY daily chart has an ugly reversal candle! Same to KCB and Centum. And for NSE stock, oh my, brace for impact!

I repeat exercise caution, this is a sellers market. Unless you are a seller, the excitement will be shortlived. People should be preparing for the next discount window where the excitement will be valuable.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, September 23, 2014 5:12 PM | Reason: Not specified
mnandii
#170 Posted : Tuesday, September 23, 2014 7:48:41 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Back after a week's hiatus. Sorry if u missed me. Was playing hide and seek in Cherangany hills.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#171 Posted : Tuesday, September 23, 2014 7:52:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
@mnandii - check out mpesa bank price action hinting that it will in coming weeks close below the 200 SMA on the daily chart. The price has floated above this SMA since Apr 18 2012. On exdiv day the SMA was tested @12.15, but price rebounded to close away from it. As long as price is below 12.70 the uptrend is about to end once a close below SMA 200 happens.

EQTY daily chart has an ugly reversal candle! Same to KCB and Centum. And for NSE stock, oh my, brace for impact!

I repeat exercise caution, this is a sellers market. Unless you are a seller, the excitement will be shortlived. People should be preparing for the next discount window where the excitement will be valuable.

Pray Pray Pray

A sellers market it is.
Oct fast approaching.

Will be reviewing my charts soon guys. smile
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Aguytrying
#172 Posted : Tuesday, September 23, 2014 9:21:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Today large supply orders came in on equity and HFCk. the kind that takes profits violently
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mnandii
#173 Posted : Wednesday, September 24, 2014 9:43:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Aguytrying wrote:
Today large supply orders came in on equity and HFCk. the kind that takes profits violently

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#174 Posted : Wednesday, September 24, 2014 9:45:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Resources
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#175 Posted : Wednesday, September 24, 2014 9:47:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
In next few days if Dow crosses below 16937 , the goose will be cooked for bulls.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#176 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 7:12:36 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
I was in KCB and there was a lady buying Safcom shares. I wished the lady understood what she was doing! The market is going down guys. If you are long any shares in the market you'll cry in the toilet soon. Painful, but true. Take care.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#177 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 7:14:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Read Robert Prechter's Conquer The Crash. Better still learn Elliott Waves.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#178 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 7:39:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
" Optimism has … propelled the total amount of dollar-denominated debt to its highest in history and the quality of the debt to the lowest in history. Every financial crash has had the same setup, except this one is the biggest yet."

Preface to the 2014 edition of Conquer the Crash
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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kasibitta
#179 Posted : Friday, September 26, 2014 8:34:53 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 2/7/2014
Posts: 155
@mnandii...yesterday you promised to give charts for some counters...also saw on another thread wazuans calling for your help in providing the charts.

Thanks in advance.
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mnandii
#180 Posted : Tuesday, September 30, 2014 9:30:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
kasibitta wrote:
@mnandii...yesterday you promised to give charts for some counters...also saw on another thread wazuans calling for your help in providing the charts.

Thanks in advance.

Ok Ok.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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