It might be a while before we see, so lets continue the debate, right mano?
Ok, the way I see it,....a foe who is mortally threatened is very dangerous. Safcom running very scared is the appropriate reaction to this threat. If they hadn't, had they kept quiet and boasted how unassailable their position I would have written them off as lazy, incompetent and ripe for a takedown. That fear has people hatching strategies day and night. Equity blundered very badly there with their pricing plan announcement.
Now there are some costs, very huge costs that come with becoming a Telco and many here simply do not see them, they simply see profits and the counter really taking off. The costs have to be financed from somewhere· Let me elaborate and temper the enthusiasm a bit:
1. The license. I do not know the exact amount Equity paid for its MVNO, but these licences usually run into billions.
2. The network. Let no one cheat you, the red network is s***. It does not degrade badly cause there arent many guys on it. Their managememt miscalculated with 3G rollout so that coverage is not upto par. These data and voice revenues that Equity might be expected to pull from that aspect of the business? Exaggerated.
3. Comms regulations will kick in. Those are expensive to maintain. To mention a few, must maintain 7 year archives. Need a call center. Need to maintain service levels above some threshold. They demand infrastructure and also "provision for" accounting resources thingies. One telco was docked 300 mill (or was 500?) for low service quality.
4. Expertise, starting costs: The red network had its own money service, which they bungled. Equity will need to control the service directly, and not proxy through the network's old system if they hope to succeed. New and serious IT infrastructure is required so that the 9 million already in their stable start off happy and without a hitch.
5. Security: From what I heard, there is no encryption on the thin-sim. The base sim at least has DES. This has to have some Equity people worried, I see a very high probability someone will write malware to access the sims naked API and some interesting court battles will ensue. Perhaps this is what is keeping them?
6. What might Safcom do? Equity will force them to be less greedy, prices will come down, agents get higher commissions.
7. Open Mpesa to other banks. These other banks are spectators in the Equity/Safaricom axis. They would love a piece of the pie, opening the system up adds appeal, staves off the impending annihilation.

All in all? It does not change much, Equity's thing becomes a good money earner for Equity but not the decapitating sword of wrath people are making it out to be. There is no lunch to be eaten here. 60-40 market split for Safcom-Equity after some 5 years ofrough battle.
But you are all entitled to hype it, watch the stock skyrocket and make a killing I hold a dimmer view.

You are making too many assumptions in imagining that Safcom will not match those trasaction fees just because of agents. But since you live in lala land. Keep watching. How many months has it been after the expected "launch" month?