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Too many HELLOS, Time to quit stocks!
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murchr
#111 Posted : Monday, August 11, 2014 11:30:01 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
sparkly wrote:
"Hello, I want to buy stocks" threads are still coming thick and fast.

Sample this:

To sell CFC or not?

300k to invest in stocks

Stock picks for mid 2014

I want to buy stocks with my school fees

I want to buy a share for less than KES 20

As usual my advise is - exercise caution when buying. It is easy to get caught up in the excitement when stocks are going up, up, up. Look for undervalued fundamentally sound companies.


I agree
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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INTERESTING!
#112 Posted : Tuesday, August 12, 2014 1:01:26 AM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/12/2014
Posts: 56
murchr wrote:
sparkly wrote:
"Hello, I want to buy stocks" threads are still coming thick and fast.

Sample this:

To sell CFC or not?

300k to invest in stocks

Stock picks for mid 2014

I want to buy stocks with my school fees

I want to buy a share for less than KES 20

As usual my advise is - exercise caution when buying. It is easy to get caught up in the excitement when stocks are going up, up, up. Look for undervalued fundamentally sound companies.


I agree



One of my lecturers said that you will make money in any stock market if you are able to identify buy or sell inflection points and take advantage of them appropriately.

People usually get interested in a stock market when things are looking up and that is what we are seeing now and it is the same thing we saw in January this year or around that time.

The last major buy inflection point was a few months after the currency crisis...when the shilling traded at 107 to the dollar in October 2011.

Between Jan and Feb 2012 when 91 day T-bill rates hit 20%, which was the peak, Safaricom was trading at below Sh4.

The NSE 20 Share Index was around 3,100 or 3,200.

This was the inflection point and this was the time to buy shares. If you predicted this correctly and bought you have made some serious cash.

Now, NSE 20 Share Index is above 5,000, we have an IPO closing today and there are a number of rights issues lined up - a sign of a very active market.

The terrorist attacks seem not to have had much of an effect...even the higher prices of food and basics in the country have had zero effect...

My two cents is what @Sparky has said.

My feeling is that many counters are way over valued...may be the market is due for a correction...maybe it will continue on its upward trajectory...I don't know...

However, in my view, I think current opportunities are few...unless you are a trader
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, August 12, 2014 5:23 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#113 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2014 11:35:30 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
sparkly wrote:
No less than 3 threads started by HELLOs on what stocks to buy.

Wazuans if you have made money in the last 2 years, its time to sell.

Sell your stock holdings, put the money in property or cash.

2015 will be a bad year for stocks. Let those who have ears hear.


@sparkly posted the above to start this thread.

I think we are getting to the top of the froth... And this NSE IPO is the perfect noose going by the number of enquiries which some are obvious to see that the player is a new entrant in the game.

I believe we are in the buying climax phase Silenced Pray
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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littledove
#114 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2014 12:02:48 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
hisah wrote:
sparkly wrote:
No less than 3 threads started by HELLOs on what stocks to buy.

Wazuans if you have made money in the last 2 years, its time to sell.

Sell your stock holdings, put the money in property or cash.

2015 will be a bad year for stocks. Let those who have ears hear.


@sparkly posted the above to start this thread.

I think we are getting to the top of the froth... And this NSE IPO is the perfect noose going by the number of enquiries which some are obvious to see that the player is a new entrant in the game.

I believe we are in the buying climax phase Silenced Pray

@hisah according to you and other credible wazuans we are towards the climax, im now holding the following: jubilee insurance, kenya re, kplc and kk, only two had a small rally with just around 10% gain, how would you advice should i reduce exposure or just hold on.only kk i can hold long term, i dont want to regret after im fully roasted
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, September 08, 2014 12:08 PM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#115 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2014 12:24:41 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
@littledove - your picks are quite defensive in the sense that they can take smaller losses if a sizable correction ensues. None of your picks is overvalued at the moment.

It is the overvalued stocks that usually get hammered the most during the correction since they're a speculators/traders den for quick gains. Speculators/traders usually jump out as quickly as they can when the burning starts, which has the effect of accelerating selling in order to trim the sizable losses.

There are a number of stocks that have doubled and some tripled in value since the rough dip of 2011. This has created a bull/buying euphoria in the hopes of replicating such gains for the late comers (mostly speculators). Why the sizable corrections occur is due to the fact that the late comer speculator is just in the game for a quick gain. So when things don't go to plan they pull out fast and the price crashes since their is weak support.

During buying climax phase the following happen

- numerous or record IPO listings
- record IPO oversubscription(s)
- numerous rights issue which tend to get oversubscribed
- numerous or record M&A deals

All the above usually point to too much money fighting for a few opportunities.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Pesa Nane
#116 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2014 12:38:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 5/25/2012
Posts: 4,105
Location: 08c
littledove wrote:
hisah wrote:
sparkly wrote:
No less than 3 threads started by HELLOs on what stocks to buy.

Wazuans if you have made money in the last 2 years, its time to sell.

Sell your stock holdings, put the money in property or cash.

2015 will be a bad year for stocks. Let those who have ears hear.


@sparkly posted the above to start this thread.

I think we are getting to the top of the froth... And this NSE IPO is the perfect noose going by the number of enquiries which some are obvious to see that the player is a new entrant in the game.

I believe we are in the buying climax phase Silenced Pray

@hisah according to you and other credible wazuans we are towards the climax, im now holding the following: jubilee insurance, kenya re, kplc and kk, only two had a small rally with just around 10% gain, how would you advice should i reduce exposure or just hold on.only kk i can hold long term, i dont want to regret after im fully roasted

Am from the capital preservation school of thought and hence stopped buying ages ago (Bamburi and NSE IPO being exceptions Drool ). However, I am confident the bear is nowhere in sight for the next 30-45 days. NSE play + NSE refunds + ALL bonds refunds will ensure extended play time.
Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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littledove
#117 Posted : Monday, September 08, 2014 12:40:49 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
hisah wrote:
@littledove - your picks are quite defensive in the sense that they can take smaller losses if a sizable correction ensues. None of your picks is overvalued at the moment.

It is the overvalued stocks that usually get hammered the most during the correction since they're a speculators/traders den for quick gains. Speculators/traders usually jump out as quickly as they can when the burning starts, which has the effect of accelerating selling in order to trim the sizable losses.

There are a number of stocks that have doubled and some tripled in value since the rough dip of 2011. This has created a bull/buying euphoria in the hopes of replicating such gains for the late comers (mostly speculators). Why the sizable corrections occur is due to the fact that the late comer speculator is just in the game for a quick gain. So when things don't go to plan they pull out fast and the price crashes since their is weak support.

During buying climax phase the following happen

- numerous or record IPO listings
- record IPO oversubscription(s)
- numerous rights issue which tend to get oversubscribed
- numerous or record M&A deals

All the above usually point to too much money fighting for a few opportunities.

thanks hisah for that generous response
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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its2013
#118 Posted : Monday, September 22, 2014 8:01:26 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/4/2013
Posts: 255
sparkly wrote:
Realtreaty wrote:
False prophecy. These are people who want market to go down so that they can access and buy at low price. An ankward investor.


True prophesy. wait for September 2014 and see what happens. luckily you still have time to sell because prices will go higher and higher till then.


Well, September is here... *fingers crossed*
Pretty hurts
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Aguytrying
#119 Posted : Monday, September 22, 2014 1:10:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
if january wasnt the time now is the time. i even fear looking at the prices nowadays
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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dunkang
#120 Posted : Monday, September 22, 2014 3:33:05 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
veterans, elders and chiefs are seeing dust nowadays. This market is just on FIREEEEEEEEEEEEEEE.
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

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