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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
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mnandii
#91 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 7:02:58 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
DJIA
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#92 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 7:18:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
So the Shilling is over-valued? Very interesting considering that it is about to lose more ground.
Quote:
Kenyan shilling is overvalued by 4.3pc, says CBK policy team man


BD link
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#93 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 11:17:40 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mnandii wrote:
So the Shilling is over-valued? Very interesting considering that it is about to lose more ground.
Quote:
Kenyan shilling is overvalued by 4.3pc, says CBK policy team man


BD link

Quite telling where the insiders want the rate to be. With a strong USD, continuously supporting the shilling may prove a daunting task for CBK!They need a serious war chest for this, which they can only get from tourism sector(currently on HDU) and cash crop & horticulture exports, mainly!!The government has a lot to do in terms of fiscal policy!
@SufficientlyP
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mnandii
#94 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 6:45:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:
So the Shilling is over-valued? Very interesting considering that it is about to lose more ground.
Quote:
Kenyan shilling is overvalued by 4.3pc, says CBK policy team man


BD link

Quite telling where the insiders want the rate to be. With a strong USD, continuously supporting the shilling may prove a daunting task for CBK!They need a serious war chest for this, which they can only get from tourism sector(currently on HDU) and cash crop & horticulture exports, mainly!!The government has a lot to do in terms of fiscal policy!

Yep. Financial muscle required. smile
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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hisah
#95 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 7:23:54 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mnandii wrote:
So the Shilling is over-valued? Very interesting considering that it is about to lose more ground.
Quote:
Kenyan shilling is overvalued by 4.3pc, says CBK policy team man


BD link

Quite telling where the insiders want the rate to be. With a strong USD, continuously supporting the shilling may prove a daunting task for CBK!They need a serious war chest for this, which they can only get from tourism sector(currently on HDU) and cash crop & horticulture exports, mainly!!The government has a lot to do in terms of fiscal policy!

Oh my... That's a green light that 90/- handle is going to give way Sad
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#96 Posted : Friday, August 01, 2014 7:30:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
For the econ report readers, I wonder how many read this IMF KE Nov 2013 report - http://tinyurl.com/pu87w22

Some highlights
pg 24 - BoP table item Income (net) 2016/17 estimates projected at a positive KES 144.2B
pg 24 - BoP table item Financial account private, KQ financing will dip to 106.2B in 2016/17 while energy financing is expected to reach 144.4B by then. So KQ is expected to become stable around 2016/17 while energy financing (power + oil) will continue fed with funds.

Pg 31 - Letter of intent contents

I didn't know that NSE demutualization was part of the IMF ECF (Extended credit facility) arrangement back in 2011 when KES was collapsing Think

VAT amendment was expected to spike inflation and the treasury officials expected it to fall back in early 2014. But we all know that was just another one of those... by IMF proposals. Now inflation is above CBK's target. How long will they wait till they hike CBR? And hike CBR in an econ that is facing a slump!? Pumping liquidity is the easiest way out of the slump, but that will add fuel to the inflation spike. The dilemma...d'oh! Brick wall
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mnandii
#97 Posted : Saturday, August 02, 2014 12:27:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
hisah wrote:
For the econ report readers, I wonder how many read this IMF KE Nov 2013 report - http://tinyurl.com/pu87w22

Some highlights
pg 24 - BoP table item Income (net) 2016/17 estimates projected at a positive KES 144.2B
pg 24 - BoP table item Financial account private, KQ financing will dip to 106.2B in 2016/17 while energy financing is expected to reach 144.4B by then. So KQ is expected to become stable around 2016/17 while energy financing (power + oil) will continue fed with funds.

Pg 31 - Letter of intent contents

I didn't know that NSE demutualization was part of the IMF ECF (Extended credit facility) arrangement back in 2011 when KES was collapsing Think

VAT amendment was expected to spike inflation and the treasury officials expected it to fall back in early 2014. But we all know that was just another one of those... by IMF proposals. Now inflation is above CBK's target. How long will they wait till they hike CBR? And hike CBR in an econ that is facing a slump!? Pumping liquidity is the easiest way out of the slump, but that will add fuel to the inflation spike. The dilemma...d'oh! Brick wall

Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#98 Posted : Saturday, August 02, 2014 12:29:44 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
DJIA was down 2.75% for the week, erasing the ENTIRE gain for 2014
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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mnandii
#99 Posted : Sunday, August 03, 2014 12:08:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304


It has been several months since I boldly forecast smile that the NSE 20 Share Index would fall below 2360.01 (March 2009 low). It behoves me to revisit the issue and give an update.

As shown by the chart above, the Index has been going sideways in a pattern that is best interpreted as a triangle. I believe the triangle ended at 4863.87 points and is now rallying in the final portion of Wave C.

I forecast that the NSE 20 should rally to a top btw 5340 and 5440 points ....then fall.

A storm is coming Sad

Detailed analytics in next post.

NB: For the triangle :
Wave [a] is at 4561.74
Wave [b] is at 5137.21
Wave [c] is at 4764.11
Wave [d] is at 4925.86
Wave [e] is at 4863.87
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, August 03, 2014 1:03 PM | Reason: Not specified
mnandii
#100 Posted : Sunday, August 03, 2014 12:55:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 10/11/2006
Posts: 2,304
DETAILED ANALYTICS

Working Long Term Chart of the NSE 20 Share Index:


Wave B is from March 2009 and subdivides into Waves [a], ..[ .b] and [c].

The target top is calculated as follows:
1. Length of wave A = (6161.46 - 2360.01) = 3801.45 points
0.786 X wave A = wave B
Therefore: 0.786 X 3801.45 = 2987.94 points
Add 2987.94 points to Wave A bottom to get the end of wave B:

2987.94 + 2360.01 = 5347.95

2. The Widest Height of the triangle added to wave [ .e] bottom gives a target for final wave.
Wave [ .b], in our case, is the widest (tallest) and therefore:
(5137.21 - 4561.74) = 575.47 points

Wave [e] bottom at 4863.87 + 575.47 = 5439.34

3.

Wave [a] length = ( 4701.15 - 2360.01 ) = 2341.14
For Wave [a] = Wave [c] ( a common wave relationship) then we add the length of wave [ .a] to bottom of wave [ .b] to get the top of wave [c] (and also wave B).

Therefore: (2341.14 + 3070.36) = 5411.5

AND THUS THE TARGETED RANGE >> 5340 - 5440 POINTS FOR NSE 20 SHARE INDEX.
Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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  | | Edit by user: Sunday, August 03, 2014 1:01 PM | Reason: Not specified
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