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STOCKS TO WATCH IN 2010
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stocksmaster
#1 Posted : Tuesday, December 29, 2009 2:45:26 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 463
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
The following stocks will provide an interesting opportunity to investors in 2010:

MUMIAS SUGAR

The company had a disastrous first half for the half year ending December 2008.If the company can just maintain the results of the second half of 2008/2009, then in February 2010, Mumias should announce an over 200% increase in half year profits.This will surely excite the market. The share has many 'points of excitation':
I)The penny nature of the stock
II)New revenue stream from electricity sales
III)The business diversification plans of the company (into Mineral water, ethanol production)

The Mumias share is currently trading at a P/E of about 6.5. This share should touch Ksh 10 in 2010.

KENYA AIRWAYS

The world cup in South Africa is directly going to benefit KQ courtesy of an increase in air travel.

KENYA POWER AND LIGHTING COMPANY

The company is to have a rights issue in 2010.

Happy hunting and happy new year
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muganda
#2 Posted : Tuesday, December 29, 2009 8:04:17 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@stocksmaster, appreciate the insight. Good call on Mumias - coincidentally, Aly-Khan Satchu also gave positive indication on the same counter about an hour after your post.

It makes for good speculative buy - don't know whether I would like to buy the whole company though [as the adage goes]. If I was given a choice, I'd choose to own Bharat Thakar's SCANGROUP. Advertising is sexy.
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VituVingiSana
#3 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 5:52:05 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@muganda - Are you trying to offload ScanGroup?

Warren Buffett likes 'steady' businesses (not 'steady' earnings) which may not be sexy but have moats.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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muganda
#4 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:32:03 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@VVS smile you've got me. But seriously though, by your comments I infer that you believe the guys are managing earnings - pray tell?

Sincerely, at first glance I wouldn't touch the company. What impresses me is the ingeniousness of the guys from RedSky, WPP, Hill & Knowlton, now Ogilvy... man.

First week when it was listed in mid 2006, I thought "I like advertising, I should get into this company" - I didn't. A significant investment would have netted me 200%. I've got some shares and I've been toying with the idea of doubling the holding. Or am I just being sentimental?
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VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:44:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
I have no idea who manages earnings but it can easily be done in financial firms UNTIL the crap hits the fan!

Now... a bank or insurance firm can always understate or overstate their losses on their portfolios.

Please note that a good & diligent regulator may be a deterrent. There is a conflict though...

The Banks regulator may prefer a bank that is ultra-conservative. A bank that provisions heavily for any loan that might even be slightly 'overdue' may be a darling of the regulator. It makes the bank 'safer'.

On the other hand, the Taxman may prefer a lighter provisioning coz the provisions reduce taxable income.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#6 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:45:59 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
ScanGroup's CEO is a smart guy.

He opted to take the cash from WPP & stuck it into the infrastructure bond (13% net of taxes) while he waited for acquisition target prices to drop.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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muganda
#7 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 6:50:17 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
@VituVingiSanga, agreed x2. So another take, what do you think are the mid-term fortunes? Should it fair well anywhere near @stockmaster picks?
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the deal
#8 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 7:07:47 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I think 2010 will all about companies producin better than expected results, people are tired of bad news so they will be lookin 4 somethin to cheer them up...with the economy picking up expect insurance companies to do better...mumias i'm yet to be convinced they have experienced problems wit KPLC taking up their power so i'm not sure how is that goona improve their earnings...the other projects r yet 2 kickoff...scan group is good buy i value it 48 so is NMG...KPLC earnings will stagnate 4 the next 3 yrs wit no increase in elec prices...there will b a rights issue then a split sheew KPLC is good 4 long term not speculation...so watch out for Kenya re, housing finance and coop bank...happy hunting in 2010.
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VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 7:10:54 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Can't say... but I am bullish on KQ & KPLC

KQ - Coz they are expanding when others are hesitant or in trouble. This means they will be stronger, better equipped & have an expanded network that will serve KQ & passengers well.

Of course, the idiots at KAA could upset KQ's plans!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Wednesday, December 30, 2009 7:21:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Can't say... but I am bullish on KQ & KPLC

KQ - Coz they are expanding when others are hesitant or in trouble. This means they will be stronger, better equipped & have an expanded network that will serve KQ & passengers well.

Of course, the idiots at KAA could upset KQ's plans!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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