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NSE IPO
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VituVingiSana
#101 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 12:52:02 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
Tall Order wrote:
I don't think they would mishandle the refunds should need be especially as they are expected to lead by example otherwise investor confidence would be shattered.
When has that ever stopped the CMA or NSE from screwing us over?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#102 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 1:24:48 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
muganda wrote:
Herewith the digital prospectus for NSE IPO


Offer pice 9.50
Offer closes 12-Aug-14
Results announced 03-Sep
Commencment of trading 09-Sep

NAV 5.68
Trailing P/E 4.66
Dividend payout ratio 18.6%

Market Capitalisation 1.2bn


Here they are using 128 Million shares for the calculation. This will change to 194 Million after listing. This will mislead some, coz dilution will happen after the IPO and the Fundamentals wont be as rosy as painted here.
Refer to post #78 for metrics using 194 Million shares.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, July 24, 2014 1:29 PM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#103 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 1:27:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
This Ipo will bring back the confidence of IPO's wait and see. I wont be left out of this one. It will be oversubscribed and rally hard after that.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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VituVingiSana
#104 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 1:51:13 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,361
Location: Nairobi
From the Streets of Twitter and additional research:

If NSE made 60mn through 30 April 2014 then on a linear basis equates to 180mn for FY 2014.
If NSE made 262mn in FY 2013 (including 120mn PBT from non-recurring a bad debt write-back).

Is there a likelihood that as @Sang252 indicated there may be a profit warning like LKL, HAFR and BRTM soon after the Listing?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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INTERESTING!
#105 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 2:10:00 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 4/12/2014
Posts: 56
I think I will buy then flip. Britam and LKL have rallied after some time. I can buy later when it is fairly valued or undervalued.
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hisah
#106 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 2:25:04 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
VituVingiSana wrote:
From the Streets of Twitter and additional research:

If NSE made 60mn through 30 April 2014 then on a linear basis equates to 180mn for FY 2014.
If NSE made 262mn in FY 2013 (including 120mn PBT from non-recurring a bad debt write-back).

Is there a likelihood that as @Sang252 indicated there may be a profit warning like LKL, HAFR and BRTM soon after the Listing?

YES. And I expect it too.
@mweke also pointed this out in this thread on post 86

If it rallies off the blocks I expect it tank like HAFR, BRIT and LKL.

IPOs sold after sizable profit gains are always a value trap.

@muganda's post 81

$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, July 24, 2014 2:31 PM | Reason: Not specified
muganda
#107 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 2:59:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
hisah wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
From the Streets of Twitter and additional research:

If NSE made 60mn through 30 April 2014 then on a linear basis equates to 180mn for FY 2014.
If NSE made 262mn in FY 2013 (including 120mn PBT from non-recurring a bad debt write-back).

Is there a likelihood that as @Sang252 indicated there may be a profit warning like LKL, HAFR and BRTM soon after the Listing?

YES. And I expect it too.
@mweke also pointed this out in this thread on post 86

If it rallies off the blocks I expect it tank like HAFR, BRIT and LKL.

IPOs sold after sizable profit gains are always a value trap.

@muganda's post 81



Well said @hisah @VVS, they will technically need a profit warning; but with some clever machinations they could avoid the embarrassment smile

Estimate FY 2014
Total Income flat (no market access fee)
Admin Expenses +10% (run rate)
Other Expenses +35% (IPO fees)
*Provisions adverse (no gain from recovery)

Profit before tax -35%
Profit after tax -23%
*EPS after dilution -50%

To improve situation, they'd could write back remaining part of doubtful debt, but EPS would still decline say 20%.
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, July 24, 2014 3:13 PM | Reason: Not specified
Mainat
#108 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 3:02:38 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
So its a speculative play? But who will be left holding ze monkey?
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Aguytrying
#109 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 3:30:16 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one.
What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#110 Posted : Thursday, July 24, 2014 3:50:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Aguytrying wrote:
The profit warning will be huko January 2015 onwards, if they'll be one.
What of the lofty valuations they are peddling using 128M shares!! she should at least included valuations assuming full subscription.

So we in agreement that a profit warning is coming. So why waste your funds on it?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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