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KPLC share capital restructuring - Time to bail out?
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2009 9:14:00 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
@ectasy - a split or bonus will make the shares more 'affordable' thus increase the demand. Since we are slicing the cake into smaller pieces,the size of cake does not change...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ecstacy
#12 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2009 4:16:00 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2008
Posts: 4,449
obviously..however the margin plays between buy and sell are way narrower...resulting in belaboured price appreciation and swift price falls...unless you anticipate foreigners buying this counter in proper bulk...it's downhill on this variable alone...ask yourself..it is more affordable to who? the structuring will tell us..likely for...Wanjiku? It's time for some owner to dump...for a more profitable venture...Look at what IPO type splits/Massive share bonuses do to solid counters like EB,SCOM and KCB...
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Wednesday, November 25, 2009 9:32:00 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Equity - My friend,they gave a 2:1 bonus then followed it with a 10:1 split since they listed... The share price had climbed to a crazy number with a PE of 20... the split has stabilized the price.

Safaricom - It has never split or given bonuses since its IPO.

KCB - Similar to EB but unlike EB was always more affordable. Of course,profits went up slower than EB. It was Triton that broke the camel's back exactly 1 year ago.

The splits/bonuses will help keep the price higher than if there were not splits...

Greedy when others are fearful,Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase WB
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#14 Posted : Monday, December 14, 2009 1:27:11 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
I think this whole move will dilute this counter and prices will take a nose dive down south...in this climate where some counters r going weeks without a single trade, where will buyers come from? Unless maybe foreigners....my eye's are fixed on this counter.
cnn
#15 Posted : Monday, December 14, 2009 1:36:55 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
Had to bail out ex-dividend.I was not ready to wait for the dilution,by whatever factor it will be.Once they release the conversions,can pick the entry point.
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 5:46:17 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
So we are clear... a Bonus or a Split (almost the same thing)... will seem to cause a price drop but not really...

Ceteris Paribus applies

Current Price = 140
A 5:1 split (5 shares for every 1 you have so if you have 100, you will get 400 'more' for a total of 500) should be 140/5 = 28

The EPS, NAV/Share all reduce proportionately.

Therefore 28/- is NOT a 'dilution' nor a 'price drop'. The whole cake has not changed in size.

If I have 1,000 shares @ 140 = 140,000/-
After the split I have 5,000 @ 28 = 140,000/-

KPLC pays 8/- dividend/share = 1,000 x 8 = 8,000
After split 1.60/share = 5,000 x 1.60 = 8,000
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 5:49:18 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
What will/should affect KPLC is the availability of electricity to sell. Demand is strong. KPLC's annual report talks of 'suppressed demand' which is the equivalent of 'rationing'.

Consumers WANT to buy electricity (D>S) but there was not enough power to sell. The price is 'fixed'/regulated. KPLC cannot charge more than the ERC's mandated price. The other variations (fuel, forex) are mostly pass-throughs. KPLC does not benefit.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
cnn
#18 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 7:10:31 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
@vvs
you are right on the size of the cake not changing,but there will be more scavengers for this cake in terms of new ordinary shares for the goverment.
Unless you are saying,the dividend pain currently to the preferential shares when dividend by whatever number of new orinary shares to GOK,will give an EPS of 8 as you calculated above.
VituVingiSana
#19 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 8:36:16 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Bw.cnn -

I do NOT know how many shares will be allocated to GoK (though we know the 'value' approx 13.8bn worth) so it's a guesstimate at best.

The NAV (many assets have not been revalued for years) is higher than current price. Strong earnings growth.

As an existing shareholder, I hope they are priced higher than the current market price. The current price is 'low' partly due to the uncertainty created by the announcement.

I believe the intrinsic value of KPLC is north of 200/-.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#20 Posted : Tuesday, December 15, 2009 9:05:46 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
I also wonder why they picked 13.8bn (87% of the preferred shares) & not the entire 15.9bn

Perhaps KPLC will be 'repaid' some of the money in exchange for assets or other payables due from GoK?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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