innairobi wrote:There is no revolution about to happen here a la Thailand or Egypt. Until Rift Valley substantially crosses over to CORD, the opposition lacks sufficiently committed troops to sustainably execute a revolution. You can quote me on that. If push comes to shove, CORD will assemble its millions and Jubilee will assemble its millions.
The worst that will happen from the rallies is business disruption and a bit of stone-throwing on Saba Saba, then predictably later on Nane Nane then onto Tisa Tisa and Kumi Kumi. In any case, a revolution is not the planned objective here. The idea is to re-enact the 2004-2007 script and create discontented momentum in anticipation of the 2017 presidential elections.
It also serves to make it clear who will be the obvious people's choice of CORD's 2017 presidential candidate just in case Wetangula, Kalonzo, Mutua or Kidero (who have shown presidential ambitions in one form or the other) had any illusions.
Thank you @inairobi for being able to read the script as it should. @kysse, please read the comment by @inairobi, if possible please print for future reference, seems like you are terribly shaken.
Here are a few facts. During moi days, the opposition got all the money they needed through the friendly NGOs to destabilize the govt. Mrs. Wanjiku Kihoro, may God rest her soul, channeled millions to the activism we saw those days.
And yet it was impossible to shake moi who was operating from a politically hostile city with only a handful of his tribesmen around. The threat to march to statehouse was first unleashed by matiba in 1993. Guess some wazuans were not yet born. It never happened. It wont happen on sabasaba.
Remember mageuzi rallies in the 1999/2000 led by orengo, mukhisa kituyi and Hassan Omar then a student leader ?
Finally, Kibaki was weak, UMK is not. Try to think like a senior cord operative planning saba saba events. What would be your chance of succeeding if you attempted to start a revolution in Nairobi. Think about who controls the security machinery, think about the tribal demographics in the city.
A revolution is not the objective here. Its so obvious I thought everyone could see that. Seems like common sense isn't that common.