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hisah		#661 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 2:55:03 AM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		KE econ signals are so mixed up at the moment, nothing makes sense... - Liquidity is high - credit expansion ahead of MPC target 7 months in a row - Somehow inflation is 'contained'... - KES already weakening in 2014 - NSE has been flat in 2014 - GDP growth dismal with all that liquidity with agri, tourism & industrials crimped and more crimping is slated for 2014. - 1.8 trillion budget estimate Is liquidity being misallocated and where to? That credit expansion will force CBK to step in at some point. Will they hike CBR or hike CRR for banks or both? At 1.8T budget with the high credit expansion and a squeaking econ, inflation will definitely spike soon. So what exactly is treasury up to with a number of KE econ flight gauges reading out of sync...? Bumpy flight this one as equities and money market fight it out... And so I hold my bear bias on financials even if Mr market thinks otherwise. Reality eventually meets mr market's irrational spree. http://www.businessdaily.../-/85j1nxz/-/index.html $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Museveni		#662 Posted : Friday, May 09, 2014 8:13:16 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 8/16/2012 Posts: 661		Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
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hisah		#663 Posted : Tuesday, May 13, 2014 2:35:17 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		Energy sector. The next hot bed... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr		#664 Posted : Wednesday, May 14, 2014 4:32:56 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980		hisah wrote: Energy sector. The next hot bed... Been eyeing KEGN with more power coming in. I think i'll load at 10.xy its heading there "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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Mainat		#665 Posted : Wednesday, May 14, 2014 6:17:51 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590		Muchr-as long as you remember there is a rights issue coming Sehemu ndio nyumba
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murchr		#666 Posted : Wednesday, May 14, 2014 2:27:50 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980		Mainat wrote: Muchr-as long as you remember there is a rights issue coming I do....and i also fear that it might just not happen. With everything looking gloomy..tourism, drought poor weather forecasts, things might not end up good this year. "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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hisah		#667 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 4:15:53 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977		As a continuation from here - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=554238#post554238 Substandard also has an article about the same, but discussed in more detail - http://bit.ly/RI32bY Quote: Could the economy be in financial distress? This is the big question among economists after the Government moved to reschedule a $600 million (Sh52.2 billion) syndicated loan. The National Treasury received a three-month extension on the commercial debt after its debut $2 billion (Sh174 billion) Eurobond was delayed. “What we have done is just extend the repayment... by another three months as we continue discussions on the sovereign bond,” Kamau Thugge, the National Treasury’s principal secretary, told Reuters. The country secured a two-year loan at an interest rate of seven per cent in 2012 to fund development. Underwritten by Citigroup, Standard Chartered Bank (UK) and Standard Bank of South Africa, the loan was due for full repayment on May 16. National Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich said terms and conditions of the loan remain the same as before, but extension attracted a fee which is usually charged in line with normal practice. He however, declined to give more details. Economists, however, said the request for the extension of the repayment period is a signal of an economy that is under financial duress. If indeed this financial distress is present another fat tail episode is coming up in equities... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr		#668 Posted : Friday, May 16, 2014 4:34:10 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980		Its going to be tough "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore .
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mwekez@ji		#669 Posted : Saturday, May 17, 2014 4:57:31 PM
Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121		Jubilee cant afford to let the economy down. The chaps must be working 24/7 considering the challenging environment >>> President Says Government Will Issue Eurobond by End-June http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2...urobond-by-end-june.html
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Mukiri		#670 Posted : Saturday, May 17, 2014 10:03:54 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222		hisah wrote: As a continuation from here - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=554238#post554238 Substandard also has an article about the same, but discussed in more detail - http://bit.ly/RI32bY Quote: Could the economy be in financial distress? This is the big question among economists after the Government moved to reschedule a $600 million (Sh52.2 billion) syndicated loan. The National Treasury received a three-month extension on the commercial debt after its debut $2 billion (Sh174 billion) Eurobond was delayed. “What we have done is just extend the repayment... by another three months as we continue discussions on the sovereign bond,” Kamau Thugge, the National Treasury’s principal secretary, told Reuters. The country secured a two-year loan at an interest rate of seven per cent in 2012 to fund development. Underwritten by Citigroup, Standard Chartered Bank (UK) and Standard Bank of South Africa, the loan was due for full repayment on May 16. National Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich said terms and conditions of the loan remain the same as before, but extension attracted a fee which is usually charged in line with normal practice. He however, declined to give more details. Economists, however, said the request for the extension of the repayment period is a signal of an economy that is under financial duress. If indeed this financial distress is present another fat tail episode is coming up in equities... What does 'fat tail' mean? Proverbs 19:21
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