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Kenya Airways...why ignore..
VituVingiSana
#741 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 4:28:50 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,095
Location: Nairobi
obiero wrote:
huyo mtu amesema KRA itashika KQ planes for any eventual default, must be living in Utopia.. those who saw KCB on its knees in 2004 as a loss making firm know what I am talking about

"Huyo Mtu" ... Kwani?
Anyway, there is little benefit in GoK saving KQ with a 'loan' after KRA [with GoK's blessings] brings KQ down.

As an EXISTING shareholder you do not benefit from GoK (vs Opportunity Cost) in your business as a savior. To counter your KCB, "Huyo Mtu" refers you to KPLC. GoK hobbled KPLC by imposing managers [Samuel Gichuru], GoK departments not making payments, Rural Electrification and not allowing KPLC to recover its costs so leading it into bankruptcy.

GoK then lent KPLC money and converted some loans into Preference Shares which were then converted into Ordinary Shares with 51% ownership by GoK. Immediately after the Rights Issue, GoK refused a triennial rate increase which KPLC was due. And ma-shida for KPLC started.

KCB - GoK led it into bankruptcy but CBK 'saved' it to prevent a financial meltdown in Kenya. This was NOT a cash injection but CBK overlooked applying strict financial ratios.

After Kibaki came in, GoK repaid many of the loans even if these were misappropriated. Low savings rates in the early Kibaki years allowed KCB to make huge margins [Interest Spreads] to reduce their losses. Furthermore, KCB had to have 2 Rights Issues to right their capital inadequacies. And GoK has reduced its shareholding in KCB over the years.

Anyway... @obiero ... have fun Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I am staying out of KQ until Naikuni AND Mbugua leave. I will review my position in early 2015. And I am a pragmatist so if I see good things before 2015 then I might dip my toe in.



Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Museveni
#742 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 8:13:59 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/16/2012
Posts: 660
Akenyan2014 wrote:
Museveni wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Akenyan2014 wrote:
To expect an excellent 2013 is a tall order. But trust @Obiero especially if your target is 2015, a very high revenue target is being set, Several staff being trained on sales, Jambojet success, Greenfield, expected new ceo, etc. The expectation of poor numbers could drive price down slightly, but could spark a huge demand based on discount opportunity or when the dust settles, just like EABL (is it because they share a board member?).

@alykhansatchu doesn't refer to a stock as undervalued in vain. "Kenya Airways' commercial director steered FY earnings expectations higher and towards a FY profit and this is yet to be reflected in the price. - See more at: http://www.the-star.co.k...ash.5C1Mldfv.dpuf"

Disclaimer: I own a few KQ shares @ 12.30

Ask yourself:
Does AKS have shares in KQ?
Does KQ provide him with a stream of income e.g. website ads?
Does the Finance Director have substantial shares in KQ?


+ trust no one +

Not even @Obiero..

Set yourself targets. Soft ones.

One step at a time. Do not lust after that carrot.. the distance to the mouth is almost always constant.


@VituVingiSana, @Museveni, I have no idea of AKS's and FD's stake. All I remember is cheering guys to buy EABL at abt 220 recently and telling guys SCOM had a future when everybody was running away. Look at the two titans now !!!
My objective was to find out if there is any future in this stock to inform my exit or continued stay.


If you are in for the long haul buffer your stake & enjoy the ride. But if you are looking for quick rides e.g HF, you better focus.

As mentioned, set goals. Attainable goals. Do not gamble with your money.
Live and learn; and don’t forget, nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Gordon Gekko
#743 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 8:31:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=Gordon Gekko]Some of these planes are leased, which is a much better deal as they avoid vat issues and lease expenses are deductible. See last para

http://t.co/4WEFzKlLuc[/quote] I may be mistaken but I think Leases [long-term that are essentially like Hire-Purchase] attract VAT.

Leases are traditionally either operating leases or finance leases. The former shouldn't have VAT implications. The latter are like a loan, which I suspect attract VAT.
I think Brian Davis set up an offshore company called Simba something (fully owned by KQ) that bought the airbuses and leased them to KQ. This model eliminated the challenges now faced, I wonder if it was changed and why.
Ash Ock
#744 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 10:47:47 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/27/2010
Posts: 495
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
[quote=Gordon Gekko]Some of these planes are leased, which is a much better deal as they avoid vat issues and lease expenses are deductible. See last para

http://t.co/4WEFzKlLuc[/quote] I may be mistaken but I think Leases [long-term that are essentially like Hire-Purchase] attract VAT.

Leases are traditionally either operating leases or finance leases. The former shouldn't have VAT implications. The latter are like a loan, which I suspect attract VAT.
I think Brian Davis set up an offshore company called Simba something (fully owned by KQ) that bought the airbuses and leased them to KQ. This model eliminated the challenges now faced, I wonder if it was changed and why.


I think only the four 777-200’s, two of the old 737-300’s, and two of the 737-700’s are fully owned by KQ. The rest, including the new 777-300’s, the 787’s, and the Embraers are all leased from either GE Capital Aviation Services, ILFC, KLM, etc.

Most are finance leases, bringing all these problems for KQ.

Sent from my Black Nokia 3310
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#745 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 11:24:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Meanwhile, the share has quietly bottomed out at 11.95 and is slowly starting out the safari as we approach FY13-14 accounts release next month.
@SufficientlyP
georgegop
#746 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 11:48:21 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/30/2010
Posts: 183
Location: Migingo
@Philangathropic in your own opinion, would you advise someone to buy KQ at around 12/=?
Don't Work for Money, Let Money Work for You..
tomtom
#747 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 11:57:24 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/19/2013
Posts: 33
The deep dislike for Naikuni is understandable, more so, for those who were caught out from the highs in share price. But the man had to do what was needed to ensure KQ lived to fight another day. If he chose to please shareholders short term, the company's future would be slightly more uncertain. The only way to survive was to grow the company.

Yes, there are things that could have been handled differently but growth was necessary. What is certain is, at the current share price the company is undervalued.

The painful memories of losing money on this share will not fade quickly but the price will eventually reflect the true value. When? is anyone's guess.

On a light note; Naikuni himself hinted(on mindspeak), that he might buy shares in KQ after his own departure as CEO.Laughing out loudly I guess he knew his strategy would not be good for the share price in the short term.

happy hunting and good luck
georgegop
#748 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 12:00:12 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/30/2010
Posts: 183
Location: Migingo
@Tomtom very well put!
Don't Work for Money, Let Money Work for You..
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#749 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 2:20:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,220
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
georgegop wrote:
@Philangathropic in your own opinion, would you advise someone to buy KQ at around 12/=?

Would advise for a short term play to sell on or about results announcement day somewhere mid June.Expected profits should push the price beyond 13 so you are looking at a quick 10%.
Long term, airline industry is tricky and requires one with a thick skin.
@SufficientlyP
kollabo
#750 Posted : Wednesday, May 07, 2014 2:21:59 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/3/2012
Posts: 1,317
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
huyo mtu amesema KRA itashika KQ planes for any eventual default, must be living in Utopia.. those who saw KCB on its knees in 2004 as a loss making firm know what I am talking about

"Huyo Mtu" ... Kwani?
Anyway, there is little benefit in GoK saving KQ with a 'loan' after KRA [with GoK's blessings] brings KQ down.

As an EXISTING shareholder you do not benefit from GoK (vs Opportunity Cost) in your business as a savior. To counter your KCB, "Huyo Mtu" refers you to KPLC. GoK hobbled KPLC by imposing managers [Samuel Gichuru], GoK departments not making payments, Rural Electrification and not allowing KPLC to recover its costs so leading it into bankruptcy.

GoK then lent KPLC money and converted some loans into Preference Shares which were then converted into Ordinary Shares with 51% ownership by GoK. Immediately after the Rights Issue, GoK refused a triennial rate increase which KPLC was due. And ma-shida for KPLC started.

KCB - GoK led it into bankruptcy but CBK 'saved' it to prevent a financial meltdown in Kenya. This was NOT a cash injection but CBK overlooked applying strict financial ratios.

After Kibaki came in, GoK repaid many of the loans even if these were misappropriated. Low savings rates in the early Kibaki years allowed KCB to make huge margins [Interest Spreads] to reduce their losses. Furthermore, KCB had to have 2 Rights Issues to right their capital inadequacies. And GoK has reduced its shareholding in KCB over the years.

Anyway... @obiero ... have fun Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I am staying out of KQ until Naikuni AND Mbugua leave. I will review my position in early 2015. And I am a pragmatist so if I see good things before 2015 then I might dip my toe in.




Why wait for him to leave? I got in after he announced his departure. Things are looking up. Am seeing Jambojet as a huge gamechanger.
VituVingiSana
#751 Posted : Thursday, May 08, 2014 1:59:04 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,095
Location: Nairobi
tomtom wrote:
The deep dislike for Naikuni is understandable, more so, for those who were caught out from the highs in share price. But the man had to do what was needed to ensure KQ lived to fight another day. If he chose to please shareholders short term, the company's future would be slightly more uncertain. The only way to survive was to grow the company.

Yes, there are things that could have been handled differently but growth was necessary. What is certain is, at the current share price the company is undervalued.

The painful memories of losing money on this share will not fade quickly but the price will eventually reflect the true value. When? is anyone's guess.

On a light note; Naikuni himself hinted(on mindspeak), that he might buy shares in KQ after his own departure as CEO.Laughing out loudly I guess he knew his strategy would not be good for the share price in the short term.

happy hunting and good luck
Many weedkillers work by making the weed grow faster than it should [to be sustainable] so the weed's 'leaves' grow rapidly while the root does not. And then it is overwhelmed and dies.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#752 Posted : Thursday, May 08, 2014 2:00:34 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,095
Location: Nairobi
kollabo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
obiero wrote:
huyo mtu amesema KRA itashika KQ planes for any eventual default, must be living in Utopia.. those who saw KCB on its knees in 2004 as a loss making firm know what I am talking about

"Huyo Mtu" ... Kwani?
Anyway, there is little benefit in GoK saving KQ with a 'loan' after KRA [with GoK's blessings] brings KQ down.

As an EXISTING shareholder you do not benefit from GoK (vs Opportunity Cost) in your business as a savior. To counter your KCB, "Huyo Mtu" refers you to KPLC. GoK hobbled KPLC by imposing managers [Samuel Gichuru], GoK departments not making payments, Rural Electrification and not allowing KPLC to recover its costs so leading it into bankruptcy.

GoK then lent KPLC money and converted some loans into Preference Shares which were then converted into Ordinary Shares with 51% ownership by GoK. Immediately after the Rights Issue, GoK refused a triennial rate increase which KPLC was due. And ma-shida for KPLC started.

KCB - GoK led it into bankruptcy but CBK 'saved' it to prevent a financial meltdown in Kenya. This was NOT a cash injection but CBK overlooked applying strict financial ratios.

After Kibaki came in, GoK repaid many of the loans even if these were misappropriated. Low savings rates in the early Kibaki years allowed KCB to make huge margins [Interest Spreads] to reduce their losses. Furthermore, KCB had to have 2 Rights Issues to right their capital inadequacies. And GoK has reduced its shareholding in KCB over the years.

Anyway... @obiero ... have fun Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly I am staying out of KQ until Naikuni AND Mbugua leave. I will review my position in early 2015. And I am a pragmatist so if I see good things before 2015 then I might dip my toe in.




Why wait for him to leave? I got in after he announced his departure. Things are looking up. Am seeing Jambojet as a huge gamechanger.
Just in case the Board decides to give him another year. And then there is the CFO. I will wait.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Akenyan2014
#753 Posted : Monday, May 19, 2014 2:21:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
Amazing how this aircraft has many landings for Pax. to board, I think I could add some more sub 12 and wait for take off either b4 results or at the end of these travel advisories.

Hope a number of Wazuans turned up for the #KQDreamliner
Having some airline xperience, I rate it a + in delivering shareholder value
muganda
#754 Posted : Monday, May 19, 2014 2:43:05 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,905
Uuuh ooh, are you marketing or investing? Or perhaps Investor Relations? Keep it real, please.

I once held KQ, in Titus Naikuni's reign when it was trading above 100/=. What do you tell me if I am a long term investor with price below 12/= & same CEO in charge, 7 yrs later?

Akenyan2014 wrote:
Amazing how this aircraft has many landings for Pax. to board, I think I could add some more sub 12 and wait for take off either b4 results or at the end of these travel advisories.

Hope a number of Wazuans turned up for the #KQDreamliner
Having some airline xperience, I rate it a + in delivering shareholder value

Akenyan2014
#755 Posted : Monday, May 19, 2014 2:50:16 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
muganda wrote:
Uuuh ooh, are you marketing or investing? Or perhaps Investor Relations? Keep it real, please.

I once held KQ, in Titus Naikuni's reign when it was trading above 100/=. What do you tell me if I am a long term investor with price below 12/= & same CEO in charge, 7 yrs later?

Akenyan2014 wrote:
Amazing how this aircraft has many landings for Pax. to board, I think I could add some more sub 12 and wait for take off either b4 results or at the end of these travel advisories.

Hope a number of Wazuans turned up for the #KQDreamliner
Having some airline xperience, I rate it a + in delivering shareholder value



Whichever the case maybe, I have a plan. I use some information to make choices and more importantly no company in NSE is 'baba na mama' for me to hold on to it forever. For now I am in the BUY
hisah
#756 Posted : Tuesday, June 03, 2014 12:45:41 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
With a moody Mr Market, the laggards are getting kicked... KQ and TPSE facing the tourism blues. Energy stocks kengen, kk and kplc also getting shaved.

A moody Mr Market is always welcome coz of the fat discounts that come along smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Akenyan2014
#757 Posted : Tuesday, June 03, 2014 8:03:06 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/6/2014
Posts: 268
Location: Nairobi, Kenya
hisah wrote:
With a moody Mr Market, the laggards are getting kicked... KQ and TPSE facing the tourism blues. Energy stocks kengen, kk and kplc also getting shaved.

A moody Mr Market is always welcome coz of the fat discounts that come along smile


And what could be causing KAKUZI to go against the market trend and other beaten agric peers? From 110s to 150s in such a short time. Anything we are in the dark, @hisah?
guru267
#758 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 4:57:08 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Akenyan2014 wrote:
And what could be causing KAKUZI to go against the market trend and other beaten agric peers? From 110s to 150s in such a short time. Anything we are in the dark, @hisah?


You will find your answer in the Kenya shilling trend!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
ProverB
#759 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 8:55:15 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
Just about 4 years since i first put up this thread. The share is still crap and the only thing working for it is that it's cheaper than it was 4 years to date. That and the fact Titus Naikuni is leaving.

It's funny that still people are using "passenger numbers" as indicator of future value appreciation. Erstwhile Wazuans can verify that this assertion of passenger numbers translating into profit hasn't worked for KQ since 2006
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
hisah
#760 Posted : Wednesday, June 04, 2014 10:14:28 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
ProverB wrote:
Just about 4 years since i first put up this thread. The share is still crap and the only thing working for it is that it's cheaper than it was 4 years to date. That and the fact Titus Naikuni is leaving.

It's funny that still people are using "passenger numbers" as indicator of future value appreciation. Erstwhile Wazuans can verify that this assertion of passenger numbers translating into profit hasn't worked for KQ since 2006

KQ is just acting the same as the global airline industry. Only arab money airline with an oil put reflect the rosy side post GFC.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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