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Kenya Economy Watch
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hisah
#641 Posted : Thursday, April 17, 2014 4:17:40 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
Next signal, forex accounts that earn interest as fx drought shows up... This time it's different than 2011.

Just about to hit the 87 mark. Traded a high of 86.95 today. Breakout looms towards 90-95 zone.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#642 Posted : Sunday, April 20, 2014 4:46:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Kenya hopes of yuan clearing house rise with premier’s visit

Kenya’s bid to host a clearing house for China’s yuan currency is expected to gain fresh impetus as Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visits Nairobi next month.

This would be a boon to traders as it would cut the costs they incur when converting from the Kenyan shilling to the yuan. They are forced to convert to the dollar first, then to the Chinese currency, resulting in loss of actual value and commissions.

The issue is expected to top the agenda of Prime Minister Li’s visit to Nairobi.

For Kenya, hosting the clearing house would be important in sending a political message on its deepening ties with the East and in its bid to turn Nairobi into one of Africa’s key financial hubs. Tanzania and South Africa are said to be also interested in hosting the facility.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#643 Posted : Tuesday, April 22, 2014 5:59:01 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
This agri bleeding should be a top 3 national agenda item esp if no eurobond float. Fx reserves will dry faster exposing KES like back in 2011 - http://www.businessdaily...40/-/viaodv/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Mainat
#644 Posted : Tuesday, April 22, 2014 6:03:40 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Eurobond might happen in the 2nd half of the yr, will confirm today, but the dynamic duo are a bit clueless on matters economy. Giving up on Konza (even as a real estate venture,) was stupid. Not following up on the irrigation scheme is stupid. Not stemming corruption is stupid. Keeping USD at an artificial level ain't helping.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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hisah
#645 Posted : Tuesday, April 22, 2014 11:39:10 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Which one of the two is KE facing?

1. General and sustained rise in the price of goods and services or
2. Persistent decline in the purchasing power of money.

And I hope not both Sad

When both conditions sustain labour wars erupt and the econ takes a nosedive.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#646 Posted : Tuesday, April 22, 2014 11:44:28 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
Next signal, forex accounts that earn interest as fx drought shows up... This time it's different than 2011.

Just about to hit the 87 mark. Traded a high of 86.95 today. Breakout looms towards 90-95 zone.


USDKES chart - image courtesy of quotenet.com


USDKES is testing above 87 handle today.


$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mkonomtupu
#647 Posted : Monday, April 28, 2014 1:40:49 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
El Nino Risk increases. This is going to be the next thing to watch on the economic front but we have to wait until June-July to find out whether it's a super el nino. As usual in Kenya nothing will be done until it starts to pour

Quote:
Sea surface temperatures during the 2009-2010 El Nino peaked at 1.6 Celsius (2.9 Fahrenheit) above normal. Readings reached 2.4 degrees above normal during the 1997-1998 event, according to the climate center.

A large area of water that’s about 4 degrees Celsius warmer than normal has moved through the Pacific, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said. This area, called a downwelling Kelvin Wave, has raised the surface of the Pacific about 6 inches (15 centimeters), another clue an El Nino may be forming, Trenberth said.


Quote:
Australia's Bureau of Meteorology is increasingly convinced that the world needs to prepare for a new El Niño cycle. According to the institution, the impact of this new cycle will be felt starting from July 2014 and may continue through the winter. Also the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) and the US Climate Prediction Center stated that chances of a new El Niño cycle in 2014 are becoming higher, although it is too early to provide an indication of this year's strength of the weather phenomenon.

http://www.indonesia-inv...strong-in-2014/item1918

Quote:
he odds are increasing that an El Nino weather system will form this year, portending drought for Australia and Asia and a warmer winter in the U.S. Northeast.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center now says there’s a 65 percent chance the Pacific Ocean warming pattern will develop after August. It put the odds at 52 percent last month. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology, which expected neutral conditions at the start of the year, says the phenomenon may start as soon as July. The World Meteorological Organization of the United Nations sees an El Nino at midyear.

http://www.bloomberg.com...mer-carbon-climate.html
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hisah
#648 Posted : Tuesday, April 29, 2014 8:54:23 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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murchr
#649 Posted : Tuesday, April 29, 2014 10:27:51 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
hisah wrote:


We must do away with Anglo fleasing b4 we seek that bond
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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hisah
#650 Posted : Wednesday, April 30, 2014 4:42:16 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
hisah wrote:


We must do away with Anglo fleasing b4 we seek that bond

For it to be captured on zerohedge speaks volume. The shadiness of the whole anglo fleecing drama is like a badly directed cowboy movie.

Initially VAT was rammed through across board. Then came the wage cut/austerity by gok. Then rebasing the GDP. Now time to pay the fleecing cowboys in order to float the eurobond. Then what? Get a cheap rate for the float with the ongoing FED tapering drying up USD liquidity?

Weakening KES, but an expensive NSE. This will be resolved soon since both can't be in this condition. Forex drought (agri/tourism/industrials limping) and widening current account will nail KES.

Money market fight coming soon...

Industrials Sad http://www.businessdaily...2/-/nt4e0v/-/index.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, April 30, 2014 4:45 AM | Reason: Not specified
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