Aguytrying wrote:@metaspoilt. it's working for you. I rem when you bought cfc at 85. just be cautious esp if market trends change
I monitor the trends!Always analysing volumes for signs on weaknesses and strength on supply and demand.
On this market chances of losing or tying your money for long due to a bull trap are very high.Traders win but you must be very careful and know exactly what you are doing!
My simple strategy
1.Watch the bell weather.It gives direction on trend changes ( beginning of Correction and end of correction AND TREND REVERSAL).Safaricom has never had to struggle with a resistance for this long IMHO.Shorterm support at 11 seems to be breaking and share candlesticks chart and the BB is starting to form a bearish curve like EABL as from 1st Feb 2013.( Sold it today at 11.60)
2.Keep a calender on the FOMC meetings (Very Important)
3.Follow the Global indices and world economics
4.I follow live transactions on selected counters and watchlists.These are chosen based on events (Earnings announcement etc).(Like now we know Safcom will release good results on May 24 but we have FOMC meeting on April 29)
Live transactions are very powerful (More than candlesticks) as they help you smell strength and weakness in the Market.You see ASKS and BIDS revised UP and DOWN LIVE till sellers can no longer go down and supply starts drying or Buyers lose energy and can not revised prices up.
Always keep a note on closing BID and ASK Volume and corresponding price. (Very Important)
5.Understand and follow TA Indicators (BB,Stochastics etc)
6.On a fair valued and less volatile market follow the Wazua fundamentalists.On a overvalued and volatile Market,traders win so follow TA analysts.I only know of 3 good TA analysts in wazua
7.When you hit a bad signal cut your losses quickly. And always lock your gains before trend changes (volume spread analysis).
The Panafrik guys should have done that From Monday till Yesterday when prices and volumes were good IMHOAm very cautius coz i believe the trend is changing!
Search for my warning on Equity Bank trend reversal when i noted a very strong MACD Bearish Divergence(When it was trading at 35-35.50).We have had Dead Cat Bounces on this share but it has Never break into the 33.50-34 resistance again!
I also gave warning on EABL to SELL when the BB constricted and had a sharp breakout but on the lower Bolinger band on 6th Dec 2013.The Share has been on a high speed downward roller coaster since then.Volume spike today MIGHT signify support at 210 and possible Short term bounce but with such shares it is always good to Buy when the up trend is more obvious.Know when to exit ( 15% is always good for me)
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”