Everything rests on sampling. Kenyan and African dynamics are difficult to grasp for Westerners e.g. tribe, turnout, strongholds/distribution etc. I can sample in a way that will give RAO 70% of the vote and do another sample that gives UK 70% of the vote. The Americans do have a right to their opinion though.
All my friends are heathens, take it slow. Wait for them to ask you who you know. Please don't make any sudden moves.