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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/11/2010 Posts: 1,011 Location: nairobi
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jerry wrote:Metasploit wrote:Bargain window closing!
I have picked HFCK at 30,CFC at 85, KQ between 11.45 and 11.70 and Safcom at 11
Tried Kengen at 11.60 but it failed.
All in all thanks to the sellers!
And watch Kenya Re (the volumes) Interesting~! Any relationship with Osuji?  is it timing the market
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I think to re-balance the view on the Eurobond, we should also consider QE from the BoJ, ECB & BoE.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Will be interesting to see if EABL closes below 220 - 230 levels as the shaking continues. I don't think the rally is done on this counter. At some point it'll retest 400 again and head higher in future. People should be excited with corrections? This is where you make your money, buying discounts on quality counters always offers nice bargains. My watchlist so far - WTK, NMG, EABL, mpesa bank, KPLC, TCL and now adding MSC after yesterday's vol spike and USDKES cross. Buys for 2014 are NMG and WTK joining KQ (late 2013 buy) as posted on the wazua group as the first defence lines for this volatility pending the eurobond outcome. But that nice US Q4 GDP print might spook the eurobond uptake with a stronger USD. If USDKES breaks above 87.50, I'll get more defensive and will be forced to sell some counters when that time comes. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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The Merchant wrote:hisah wrote:Bearish against 180 (double top) on the FTSE NSE15 index weekly chart. The weekly has been toppish since the Nov 24 2013 upthrust week with the roof at 184. Likely for the entire Jan 2014 rally to be erased all the way down to Dec 2013 levels around 165 - 168. If this play out the same will be mirrored on NSE20 which means it'll lose the 5000 handle. Interesting this is happening just before results check in as well as the eurobond uptake. Reminds me of the infamous call back in Feb 2011 when I saw banks selloff hard even after announcing rosy 2010 results and USD went to 90/- and above...  Risk management will be key. Volatility is coming back... Check post #2 - http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=11082
Actually, if it drops to the 165 level (the neck line), it would confirm a double top. After that a drop equal to the height of the two tops would be seen. A break of 165 if definitely something to worry about.  @Merchant - How about this ATM on the FTSE NSE15. Redness back to May 2013 levels during the funny euphoria period post elections. The neckline has been tested today as Jan closes. Feb should see the haircuts continue.
 $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think to re-balance the view on the Eurobond, we should also consider QE from the BoJ, ECB & BoE. @hisah I'm looking at it from a perspective that there must be yield seekers out there. So if they have devaluing Yens, Euros & or GBPs, then why not buy into a USD frontier sovereign bond and make 6-7%? Especially one with a strong emerging mineral & hydrocarbon play? Glorified by the IMF too. (distorts the Junk Bond look in the long run - tenor) What do you think?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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@ecstacy - EA is sitting on a hydrocarbon lake. When this stuff goes online (commercial) you don't want to miss that bull run that will last quite a distance. KE will definitely become an international finance hub. The game is bigger than you think and all those plan costing trillions are not pipe dreams. Why the trillion plans all over sudden which are far bigger than the EA nations GDPs? Big money never plays guessing games. It's very focussed and deliberate when it comes having its way. Big banks, multinational want a piece of the game and are already setting up. This is not guess work. EA guys will have to come out of the small mindframe to see the big picture. For now it looks very confusing, but 10 - 20yrs later the talk will be different. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:I think to re-balance the view on the Eurobond, we should also consider QE from the BoJ, ECB & BoE. @hisah I'm looking at it from a perspective that there must be yield seekers out there. So if they have devaluing Yens, Euros & or GBPs, then why not buy into a USD frontier sovereign bond and make 6-7%? Especially one with a strong emerging mineral & hydrocarbon play? Glorified by the IMF too. (distorts the Junk Bond look in the long run - tenor) What do you think? I share the same view. KE offers a better play for yield chasers. So the pie should see oversubscription. And if so the stocks will be discounted so that those that miss out get in on bargains. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:Will be interesting to see if EABL closes below 220 - 230 levels as the shaking continues. I don't think the rally is done on this counter. At some point it'll retest 400 again and head higher in future.
People should be excited with corrections? This is where you make your money, buying discounts on quality counters always offers nice bargains.
My watchlist so far - WTK, NMG, EABL, mpesa bank, KPLC, TCL and now adding MSC after yesterday's vol spike and USDKES cross. Buys for 2014 are NMG and WTK joining KQ (late 2013 buy) as posted on the wazua group as the first defence lines for this volatility pending the eurobond outcome. But that nice US Q4 GDP print might spook the eurobond uptake with a stronger USD.
If USDKES breaks above 87.50, I'll get more defensive and will be forced to sell some counters when that time comes. Joy Joy Joy already testing 52 wk low "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Keep an eye on inflation. Me thinks 10% will be hit at some point esp if the food insecurity issue is not handled well like back in 2011. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The market is falling on heavy volumes...the big boys want out...thats the scary part...the hydrocarbon play is overplayed...the US will be oil independent soon...they can really pull the rag on the demand side and let crude slide...If crude slides you will see oil majors postpone their exploration activity.
I think the prospects for Kenya's Eurobond are diminishing everyday...I dont know what took the Treasury so long to float the bond? They will have no one but themselfs to blame if the bond doesnt float.
At the beginning of the year I said the market could slide by 10-15% this year...I'm sticking to this script.
I think we will see a relief rally due to the earnings season...what happens after that will be blood bath....
So when earnings comes...lighten your load on stocks if you have ears.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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hear hear...you talk well my friend. I will be watching very closely ...but with all the happenings in Kenya were everyone wants a piece including now i see some fellow known as HM ..once they make the money where will they invest it.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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An interesting read--->U.S. to Be Top Oil Producer by 2015 on Shale, IEA Says http://bloom.bg/HRtmfx
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:hisah wrote:That vacuum sucking sound... As US funds pull out $2.6B from EM stocks a spike similar to Feb 2011. Late comers poleni sana. Corrections are part of the game. It was getting frothy with some crappy counters pretending to shine. Luckily wanjikus are very few at NSE since they're still onto real estate. And I expect those shamba threads to become plenty this year.
Let's see if 2014 will offer the expected discounts (volatile shakeouts) on the value counters for the next attack on 5000 - 5500 resistance forest.
No need for PPT since the Hydrocarbon play is still intact as a long term support for the expected push beyond 6161 to new all time highs as Wanjikus join the party enmass.
@aguy - value stocks (without froothy valuations) that get a haircut should be were to load up. I still fancy the laggards.
Don't fight the trend, let the market do its thing. The dust always settles, but before then the ulcers and the nightmares of the shakeouts can be very testing.
** Just as a reminder, risk management will be key this year as volatility makes a come back.**
Remember, last straw, Eurobond. Bad reception and 2011 is back on the cards... #Word @Hisah, SPT. Im deeply into laggards. Tpse, KK and now MSC. Might seem crazy but my target for MSC is 200% profit. ti hi hi. :d/ The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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I think we dismissed US being our oil buyer in the 71B thread...China crude still at 90 usd range even without US "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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[quote=the deal]An interesting read--->U.S. to Be Top Oil Producer by 2015 on Shale, IEA Says http://bloom.bg/HRtmfx[/quote] Interesting read showing a re-ordering of supplies, consumers & producers. Oil is indeed a non-renewable natural resource.
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