[quote=eggnest]this is what Aly Khan has to say about KQ
http://www.rich.co.ke/media/docs/037NSX2101.pdf[/quote] Does he have shares in KQ or is it a PR push?

I expect a 2H loss which when added to the 1H loss will be the largest loss ever made by a listed Kenyan firm!

Now we are talking the same language but don't you like Longhorn? You have been raving about it's prospects!

DILUTION EXPECTED:

Around 1.48 billion new shares will be created. Add the current 496m shares, lets call it 0.5m shares. Total 1.98 billion shares.

Profit after tax last year 2011 was 3.54 billion shillings. Expected to drop by more than 25 percent. 70 percent of 3.54 billion shillings is 2.478 billion shillings. Diluted eps will be 2.478/1.98=1.25.

Current market average pe is 7.5. 7.5*1.25=9.40. At a pe of 7.5 kq will be trading at 9.40 shillings post rights. Enjoy.

KQ 16:5 rights will burn your fingures

If you can, sell your secondary rights of KQ at NSE and forfeit paying 14 bob for every 5 shares you have. KQ will start making positive returns from the rights issue partially in 2014 and the Dreamline delivery will have to work like clock work for KQ to give good returns for those who will have been holding the baby from 2012 to 2014.

Wait for KQ at 10 bob or less after the rights issue and just when elections fever will be high as we end the year and before March 2013 or June 2013 if there will be a rerun.

Those who have ears, let them hear.

I foresee a political assassination this year.

They have eyes, but do not see, they have ears but do not hear.

Fair value, book value, or market value? I would be comfortable with KQ if it trades at 9 shillings to become a dividend share if it keeps up with the 1/= DPS at least for the next 3 yrs so that we can have a clear picture of the implementation of the strategy they are putting in place.


Those billions they are talking about might be too much for Naikuni to handle.

Naikuni has been a director at EAPCC and we know what has been going on there. I have very little faith in him currently.

@mwekez@ji did you know the 20 billion KQ rights issue will not contribute to earnings in anyway.. It is merely a DOWN PAYMENT/DEPOSIT for the planes it wants to buy.. They need almost 300billion to get the planes they want..

What are the future expected earnings from companies like kenol, kengen, KCB and the rest??

These companies will do better than KQ will ever do in terms of growth and yet they all trade at a P/E of 5-6..
Going by this basis it literally means KQ may even have a P/E of 4 after the rights...

I will resume believing in this stock come Jan 2014.

If I had the cash... I would buy up all of KQ [assume at 14/-]... stop the crazy expansion, fire most of the management, cut costs, sell assets [leaseback], sweat the equity and prepare to sell off the business to the highest bidder!

I am glad I switched (a huge chunk of my portfolio) to KK which expands judiciously, uses debt & has never asked me for Rights cash, sweats the equity, management has shares/options...

So @obiero has been making sensible predictions in 2012 too