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Kenya Eurobond - Dummy Bookrunning
jmbada
#1 Posted : Tuesday, January 14, 2014 10:00:15 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2011
Posts: 396
Hey all? Want to create a book on the Eurobond to see what pricing you would offer? Disclaimer: This post is not in any way intended to be a forum for financial advice, rather a social experiment to see whether or not a motley team of interested investors can arrive at pricing similar to what Investment Bankers would get to (sans the sweet commission ofcourse)!
jmbada
#2 Posted : Tuesday, January 14, 2014 11:17:31 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2011
Posts: 396
OK. To start off the process, Kenya has basically issued 30-year debt at 2% over Libor with a 4 year moratorium for a KES320B project (Railway). Currently, 90-day Libor is approx. 0.18%....projected to hit 2% in 2017. I would imagine that the Eurobond would need to be lower than this rate (4% implied rate) particularly since, it has no project performance risk attached to it.
gatoho
#3 Posted : Saturday, January 18, 2014 6:28:51 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
What is a realistic bid price for the current CBK Bond?
Foresight..
guru267
#4 Posted : Saturday, January 18, 2014 4:08:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Eurobond will be 6%-7%...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
gatoho
#5 Posted : Saturday, January 18, 2014 5:35:36 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
guru267 wrote:
Eurobond will be 6%-7%...

Thanks Guru I meant the cbk 10yr one really
Foresight..
kizee1
#6 Posted : Monday, January 20, 2014 2:27:23 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
gatoho wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Eurobond will be 6%-7%...

Thanks Guru I meant the cbk 10yr one really


you mean the syndicated loan?
maka
#7 Posted : Tuesday, January 21, 2014 8:39:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 4/22/2010
Posts: 11,522
Location: Nairobi
gatoho wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Eurobond will be 6%-7%...

Thanks Guru I meant the cbk 10yr one really


btwn 12.25-12.55%
possunt quia posse videntur
gatoho
#8 Posted : Tuesday, January 21, 2014 8:44:36 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
maka wrote:
gatoho wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Eurobond will be 6%-7%...

Thanks Guru I meant the cbk 10yr one really


btwn 12.25-12.55%

Grazie Maka..
Foresight..
gatoho
#9 Posted : Tuesday, January 21, 2014 8:46:07 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 518
Location: kandara, Murang'a
Laughing out loudly
kizee1 wrote:
gatoho wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Eurobond will be 6%-7%...

Thanks Guru I meant the cbk 10yr one really


you mean the syndicated loan?

Laughing out loudly Applause
Foresight..
jmbada
#10 Posted : Sunday, January 26, 2014 8:14:24 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 1/1/2011
Posts: 396
guru267 wrote:
Eurobond will be 6%-7%...

Thanks for your input. I was attempting something slightly different here, though. What would YOU truly demand for a loan to govt. of Kenya in foreign currency, i.e. Eurobond. I was trying to get the views of a range of Kenyan investors (both based locally and diaspora), who have a close view of Kenya due to having invested / lived here over a long period.

So to re-frame:
If you had, say an investment portfolio of USD10MM, and maybe 10%-20% of it was targeting EM bonds. How much of it would you commit to this Eurobond and what rate would you demand for you to feel you're getting an adequate return?

For me, I'd probably be okay bidding USD1MM at 5.5%. Anything above that would be cream on top. So if it comes out at 7%, I'd be quite pleased with this outcome!
Wazuan thoughts?
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