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KenGen’s Kes 141 Billion Rights Offer to Quadruple Shares in Issue
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mlennyma
#31 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 2:42:31 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
I will buy kengen after the rights crushes the price
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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mlennyma
#32 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 2:44:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
I will buy kengen after the rights crushes the price,however if that rights plan is halted it will be a quick kill to 18bob
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Aguytrying
#33 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 2:46:08 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mkonomtupu wrote:
while everyone is running away i'm back accumulating kengen. Mr. Market can be quite irrational. Kengen will in 2014 increase power generation capacity by a quarter once Olkaria IV is complete. The higher electricity tariffs are now in operation. Kengen will enjoy tax credits from the new power plants in rural areas. The demand for electricity went up 9%.


What about dilution after rights, looks like it will be worse than KQ from the current information.
If GAVA stake was reduced and we get shareholder minded management it would be a good share.
Though to be fair kengen aint that bad like KPLC.
GAVA is crafty the tarrifs were eventually increased after all that noise in early 2013.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#34 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 2:48:49 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
I will buy kengen after the rights crushes the price,however if that rights plan is halted it will be a quick kill to 18bob


couldn't put it better
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mkonomtupu
#35 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 3:08:34 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Aguytrying wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
while everyone is running away i'm back accumulating kengen. Mr. Market can be quite irrational. Kengen will in 2014 increase power generation capacity by a quarter once Olkaria IV is complete. The higher electricity tariffs are now in operation. Kengen will enjoy tax credits from the new power plants in rural areas. The demand for electricity went up 9%.


What about dilution after rights, looks like it will be worse than KQ from the current information.
If GAVA stake was reduced and we get shareholder minded management it would be a good share.
Though to be fair kengen aint that bad like KPLC.
GAVA is crafty the tarrifs were eventually increased after all that noise in early 2013.


The rights will be about 30 billion with GoK taking up 70%. So the rest of the shareholders will be doing 9 billion. Now the Energy ministry budget allocation for current financial year is about 78.5 with 76.4 billion set aside for increasing electricity generation capacity. That means GoK may be thinking of increasing its stake in Kengen which is a good thing given the capital intensive nature of kengen projects. So you may end up with a very small float of shares plus an improved performance with new power plants and higher tariffs which will deal with the dilution.

It's all about knowing when to hold and knowing when to fold
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VituVingiSana
#36 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 3:30:01 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,354
Location: Nairobi
I like the long-term view but it will be a steady performer... Do not expect EPS to double annually
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#37 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 4:51:21 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mkonomtupu wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
while everyone is running away i'm back accumulating kengen. Mr. Market can be quite irrational. Kengen will in 2014 increase power generation capacity by a quarter once Olkaria IV is complete. The higher electricity tariffs are now in operation. Kengen will enjoy tax credits from the new power plants in rural areas. The demand for electricity went up 9%.


What about dilution after rights, looks like it will be worse than KQ from the current information.
If GAVA stake was reduced and we get shareholder minded management it would be a good share.
Though to be fair kengen aint that bad like KPLC.
GAVA is crafty the tarrifs were eventually increased after all that noise in early 2013.


The rights will be about 30 billion with GoK taking up 70%. So the rest of the shareholders will be doing 9 billion. Now the Energy ministry budget allocation for current financial year is about 78.5 with 76.4 billion set aside for increasing electricity generation capacity. That means GoK may be thinking of increasing its stake in Kengen which is a good thing given the capital intensive nature of kengen projects. So you may end up with a very small float of shares plus an improved performance with new power plants and higher tariffs which will deal with the dilution.

It's all about knowing when to hold and knowing when to fold


You make a good point. Lets see their proposal, This is better than KPLC at the moment. If rights are reasonable I can profit from them.
At least the capital invested goes into increasing capacity=earnings. Unlike KPLC where it goes into "modernising the ageing grid" which really doesn't have as much bang for the buck.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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guru267
#38 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 4:58:35 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Rights price was supposed to be about 13.6... At this rate they may have to reduce the amount they require or at create even more shares!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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the deal
#39 Posted : Wednesday, January 08, 2014 8:20:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Long term? Do you guys listen to what the Energy Minister says...

Look at this...KenGen borrows Billions to build thermal plants...then borrows again to build Geothermal plants...now when Geothermal plants come online...MoE wants the thermal plants switched off in the bid of reducing power costs...why not look for new markets for this old thermal power so that atleast KenGen continues to earn some revenues since they would still continue paying interest on the debt they incurred to build this plants....if not GoK should pay for this idle capacity!

So is KenGen charity or what?

As long as GoK retains 70% or majority control this company is going nowhere!

There is too much politics in the energy sector I dont think General Electric is ready for such kind issues.

Its better for GE to invest directly in the sector & get their own PPA with KPLC.

The current KenGen-KPLC PPA is charity.
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, January 08, 2014 8:27 PM | Reason: Not specified
mkonomtupu
#40 Posted : Wednesday, January 15, 2014 10:16:08 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
mkonomtupu wrote:
while everyone is running away i'm back accumulating kengen. Mr. Market can be quite irrational. Kengen will in 2014 increase power generation capacity by a quarter once Olkaria IV is complete. The higher electricity tariffs are now in operation. Kengen will enjoy tax credits from the new power plants in rural areas. The demand for electricity went up 9%.



Dealing with Mr. Market can be quite fun and exciting. If i was to cash out that's already 100k
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