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Home Afrika Listing at NSE!
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
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Many people said they are waiting for it at 5/=, today, it traded at 5.40/=. Watu wa kobole, MKO TAYARI? Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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Happy New Year... but I doubt HAFR will deliver what folks want. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Happy New Year... but I doubt HAFR will deliver what folks want. Wait for full year 2013 results! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Happy New Year... but I doubt HAFR will deliver what folks want. Wait for full year 2013 results! Good luck. I don't trust their numbers... For some reason I equate them with the likes of Eveready & Olympia. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,183 Location: nairobi
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its a short term play for me at below 5.50 "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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mlennyma wrote:its a short term play for me at below 5.50 Short term play that may just fall below 4bob! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Cartoon reading for this stock that has crashed from the listing high of 25 to the current 5.75 level. Note the listing price was 12/- Let's follow the money like a quickfire syndicate trading desk even without TA goggles/tools... Sept 2 2013 - 2.5M shares trade with price closing @11.20 - result of this vol spike = price crashes to 6/- by Sept 30 2013 (all time low) Oct 4 2013 - 2.3M shares trade with price closing @6.05 - result of this vol spike = bounce. Oct 7 2013 - 1.2M shares trade with price closing @6.25 - result of this vol spike = bounce continuation. Oct 9 2013 - 3M shares trade with price closing @7.50 - result of this vol spike = distribution begins (selling the bounce). Oct 10 2013 - 2.8M shares trade with price closing @8.25 - result of this vol spike = distribution continuation Oct 11 2013 - 2.5M shares trade with price closing @8.65 - result of this vol spike = distribution continuation with final upthrust. Oct 14 2013 - 1.5M shares trade with price closing @8.50 - result of this vol spike = distribution upthrust confirmation. After the distribution days in Oct 2013, the price reverses the entire rally from 6/- by Dec 17 2013. Dec 23 2013 - 1.99M shares trade with price closing @6.00 - result of this vol spike = pending confirmation, but inclined towards further selling. Why? By Dec 31 2013 the Sept low at 6/- was broken as price closed @5.90 with a new all time low of 5.40. Until those vol spikes suggest otherwise, caution here... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The listing was a disaster...sentiment hasnt changed yet...property prices are likely to be soft or sticky going forward but since land is scarce in Kenya combined with the growing population we wont see much of a correction in property prices...plenty of opportunities at the county level too...infrastructure improvement...is also opening up new opportunities so Home Afrika can still make money but the returns wont be that great...there is also a question on how theyre going to monetise their land banks? will they do a D-REIT or will they do a rights issue?....I'm not a fan of this new small companies whose biz models have not been tested but I think below Ksh6...it might be undervalued...fair value is around Ksh10-12...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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hisah wrote:Cartoon reading for this stock that has crashed from the listing high of 25 to the current 5.75 level. Note the listing price was 12/-
Let's follow the money like a quickfire syndicate trading desk even without TA goggles/tools...
Sept 2 2013 - 2.5M shares trade with price closing @11.20 - result of this vol spike = price crashes to 6/- by Sept 30 2013 (all time low)
Oct 4 2013 - 2.3M shares trade with price closing @6.05 - result of this vol spike = bounce.
Oct 7 2013 - 1.2M shares trade with price closing @6.25 - result of this vol spike = bounce continuation.
Oct 9 2013 - 3M shares trade with price closing @7.50 - result of this vol spike = distribution begins (selling the bounce).
Oct 10 2013 - 2.8M shares trade with price closing @8.25 - result of this vol spike = distribution continuation
Oct 11 2013 - 2.5M shares trade with price closing @8.65 - result of this vol spike = distribution continuation with final upthrust.
Oct 14 2013 - 1.5M shares trade with price closing @8.50 - result of this vol spike = distribution upthrust confirmation.
After the distribution days in Oct 2013, the price reserves the entire rally from 6/- by Dec 17 2013.
Dec 23 2013 - 1.99M shares trade with price closing @6.00 - result of this vol spike = pending confirmation, but inclined towards further selling. Why? By Dec 31 2013 the Sept low at 6/- was broken as price closed @5.90 with a new all time low of 5.40. Until those vol spikes suggest otherwise, caution here...
At listing HAFR has 405m shares. Total shareholders 147(including beneficiaries of shares held in trust by 2 companies). Not a single shareholder held more than 3%. We can therefore conclude that the average shareholding at listing was 2.7m shares. These volume spikes represent some of the original shareholders cashing out. Volatility will persist until the faint hearted original shareholders are shaken off. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:The listing was a disaster...sentiment hasnt changed yet...property prices are likely to be soft or sticky going forward but since land is scarce in Kenya combined with the growing population we wont see much of a correction in property prices...plenty of opportunities at the county level too...infrastructure improvement...is also opening up new opportunities so Home Afrika can still make money but the returns wont be that great...there is also a question on how theyre going to monetise their land banks? will they do a D-REIT or will they do a rights issue?....I'm not a fan of this new small companies whose biz models have not been tested but I think below Ksh6...it might be undervalued...fair value is around Ksh10-12... They applied to CMA to issue a REIT... 2013 earnings will blow the roof off!  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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mawinder wrote:African Wino wrote:Why all the bile. I'd rather buy into Home Afrika rather in projects like Tatu that have never taken off. These chaps are currently involved in three projects valued at over KSh10 billion and is focusing on undertaking about 10 projects as part of its five-year strategic plan. Home Afrika is now worth well over US$100 million. Migaa alone is estimated to worth over Ksh20 million, I think their fundamental are great. What I reaaly need to know is how the company will fund its ambitious growth plan. They company is seeking to achieve a strategic objective of attaining a project turnover of US$ 1.0 billion within the next five years. That's quite a task. Your first post and you are fighting Tatu and selling HomeAfrika.You could be affiliated to HomeAfrika. 1st and last post... Must be the guy who bought at 25  Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/17/2013 Posts: 80 Location: Juja
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guru267 wrote:the deal wrote:The listing was a disaster...sentiment hasnt changed yet...property prices are likely to be soft or sticky going forward but since land is scarce in Kenya combined with the growing population we wont see much of a correction in property prices...plenty of opportunities at the county level too...infrastructure improvement...is also opening up new opportunities so Home Afrika can still make money but the returns wont be that great...there is also a question on how theyre going to monetise their land banks? will they do a D-REIT or will they do a rights issue?....I'm not a fan of this new small companies whose biz models have not been tested but I think below Ksh6...it might be undervalued...fair value is around Ksh10-12... They applied to CMA to issue a REIT... 2013 earnings will blow the roof off! A banking on this share too, up up to 8/- first On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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5.75... time to start peeping on this counter. Questions am asking myself are: 1. Land-What land do they own, where, cost price, carrying value? 2. Directors and management - Their background, experience and track record? Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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while we argue about the property bubble...smart money is already moving out Quote:Delta Corp. Ltd, the firm in a Kenyan real estate joint venture with Indian tycoon Mukesh Ambani's subsidiary, is looking to exit the venture by March after a five-year run. The Mumbai-based conglomerate says in its latest annual report that it “is gradually and profitably exiting its various real estate projects in Kenya”, and will withdraw fully by the end of financial year 2013/14, which ends March. It owns a 40 per cent stake in Delta Corp East Africa – which has built and sold several properties in and around Nairobi – while Reliance Industries Ltd holds the rest. It is not clear though whether Delta Corp will sell its stake to Ambani’s subsidiary or a different buyer. - See more at: http://www.the-star.co.k...ch#sthash.FfNEyo0D.dpuf[/quote] Greater fool theory [quote]Mr Ambani’s Reliance Industries controls 60 per cent of the joint venture with Delta Corp, whose annual report for 2012-2013 shows that the firm made net profit of Sh453.8 million from its Kenyan subsidiary, compared to the previous year when net profits attributable to the Kenyan operations stood at Sh510 million. Delta said that it will gradually exit the Kenyan market as soon as it sells all projects which also include residential property.http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Ambani-reports-Sh2bn-profit-from-Kenya-real-estate/-/539552/2135044/-/9p0crqz/-/index.html
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/14/2012 Posts: 577 Location: Nairobi Kenya
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sparkly wrote:5.75... time to start peeping on this counter.
Questions am asking myself are:
1. Land-What land do they own, where, cost price, carrying value?
2. Directors and management - Their background, experience and track record? They own the Migaa project plus others in Kisumu, Mombasa and machakos.The management is quite good, very competent guys, won't mention names though Before I die - i will touch the sky!!
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/1/2011 Posts: 396
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YoungMulla wrote:sparkly wrote:5.75... time to start peeping on this counter.
Questions am asking myself are:
1. Land-What land do they own, where, cost price, carrying value?
2. Directors and management - Their background, experience and track record? They own the Migaa project plus others in Kisumu, Mombasa and machakos.The management is quite good, very competent guys, won't mention names though Why not mention names? This is a publicly traded company. Naming directors, executive management should not be an issue to any degree whatsoever!!! Unless you're referring to non-exec mgt. team....these are just day-to-day employees. Anyway, the key management team will be mentioned in the annual report.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/20/2012 Posts: 3,855 Location: Othumo
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jmbada wrote:YoungMulla wrote:sparkly wrote:5.75... time to start peeping on this counter.
Questions am asking myself are:
1. Land-What land do they own, where, cost price, carrying value?
2. Directors and management - Their background, experience and track record? They own the Migaa project plus others in Kisumu, Mombasa and machakos.The management is quite good, very competent guys, won't mention names though Why not mention names? This is a publicly traded company. Naming directors, executive management should not be an issue to any degree whatsoever!!! Unless you're referring to non-exec mgt. team....these are just day-to-day employees. Anyway, the key management team will be mentioned in the annual report. Thought so too and should even be availed on the website. Thieves
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Rank: Hello Joined: 12/20/2013 Posts: 5
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Interesting times huge demand for HomeAfrica is this another rat race...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Babalao wrote:Interesting times huge demand for HomeAfrica is this another rat race... I was testing something!will cancel part of the demand
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 11/17/2013 Posts: 80 Location: Juja
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King G wrote:jmbada wrote:YoungMulla wrote:sparkly wrote:5.75... time to start peeping on this counter.
Questions am asking myself are:
1. Land-What land do they own, where, cost price, carrying value?
2. Directors and management - Their background, experience and track record? They own the Migaa project plus others in Kisumu, Mombasa and machakos.The management is quite good, very competent guys, won't mention names though Why not mention names? This is a publicly traded company. Naming directors, executive management should not be an issue to any degree whatsoever!!! Unless you're referring to non-exec mgt. team....these are just day-to-day employees. Anyway, the key management team will be mentioned in the annual report. Thought so too and should even be availed on the website. http://homeafrika.com/about scroll down there you will see the list. I bought some more 5.8 On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
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