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Too many HELLOS, Time to quit stocks!
obiero
#11 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 7:51:43 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,236
Location: nairobi
I only know one thing. Do not listen to guru254 in 2014. Do your own research, read books such as those by Ben Graham, Philip Fisher, Peter Lynch.. All you hello's will do just fine. Some may loose alot, but thats part of investing!

murchr
#12 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 8:13:45 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Any seasoned Wazuan knows what @Sparky means. The theory was composed by @Chessmaster before he became @symbols. The real estate threads however are still here so @sparky mambo bado. We're still partying
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
the deal
#13 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 8:18:29 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
We are on a 2 year bull run...the new guy doesnt know what a bear run is...so if I told you...a stock can give you ulcers or a stock can tank 70% you wont believe me...valuations are crazy right now...the market is trading on a trailling PE of +15 a 4 year high...meanwhile the economy is struggling to grow at 5%...

Its crazy to think the market can mantain this level of irrationality but it can but once the madness fades oh boy this market will tank...

But for sure the market tops when the consesus says "it can't go down"...I have seen this before.

So my advice is play it safe....dont buy for the sake of buying...keep cash until you spot some value...


Horton
#14 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 8:27:43 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
@ the deal....growing the economy at 5% wouldn't really be called a "struggling economy" by any metrics

nonetheless, some good tips there
symbols
#15 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 8:39:30 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
murchr wrote:
Any seasoned Wazuan knows what @Sparky means. The theory was composed by @Chessmaster before he became @symbols. The real estate threads however are still here so @sparky mambo bado. We're still partying


What theory?
dunkang
#16 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 8:46:10 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
@deal, the same was said between 2012-2013, i stocked dollars (10K to be precise) only for the market to think otherwise.

What am saying is that, LET THE MARKET DO WHATEVER IT WANT. I can't control it, neither can you! TUKO TAYARI
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

murchr
#17 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 8:57:23 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
symbols wrote:
murchr wrote:
Any seasoned Wazuan knows what @Sparky means. The theory was composed by @Chessmaster before he became @symbols. The real estate threads however are still here so @sparky mambo bado. We're still partying


What theory?


You had some long explanation on the behavior of wanjiku and the NSE but cant dig it. Anyway..@hisah uses it alot in his posts here's an example.

Aguytrying wrote:
I have now seen the signs of the bull and its slaughter. If you looked at the NSE today you'd be forgiven for thinking you were looking at 2010. The casual investors are gaining confidence in the market day by day. They know how much safcom is trading at. wait for the headlines when it reaches 10.00.
For other investors, this should really be a time of fear, fear of extreme over valuation. do you sell, do you hold? you certainly cant buy over valued counters? or can you? choice is yours.
It will be a time of great joy until its not. the oil finds complicate issues, the bull may last a long long time and if the market start rallying like crazy every year, who will want to be left of stocks?
That's why i say its a time to be fearful. Fortunately, there are some counters that for one reason or another have not joined the fair valuation bandwagon or are "only" fairly valued ( we can now afford to be ok with fairly valued) so that gives some respite for now.


Then hisah responded
hisah wrote:
Still a distance away from the euphoria of 2005 - 2006 when crap was floating higher than solid counters and the avg market PER has not yet vaulted above 15 heading towards 20. Still a lot of plots and houses for sale threads as real estate fights with equities... Wanjiku will be back and it'll be obvious on the investor section threads...


Post 4314
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
sparkly
#18 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 9:59:25 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
dunkang wrote:
@deal, the same was said between 2012-2013, i stocked dollars (10K to be precise) only for the market to think otherwise.

What am saying is that, LET THE MARKET DO WHATEVER IT WANT. I can't control it, neither can you! TUKO TAYARI


Dunkang when its comes to the so called "economic cycles" its better to look at the global trends rather than look at the local market in isolation.

In 2012 the US economic was in doldrums. Then in Sept 2012 the Federal Reserve came up with an economic stimulus dubbed Quantitative Easing (QE), a fancy term for pumping cash money to the tune of $85B into the economy.

Guess where the extra cash went to? To financial markets, instead of the productive sectors of the economy... surprise, surprise!

As a result in 2013 the US stock markets climbed by 29.6% (S&P) and 38% (NASDAQ) the biggest rise since late 90s.

A good chunk of the money went into foreign markets notably the beaten up economies of Europe and Frontier markets of Asia and Africa. Consequently Greece, Iceland and Ireland were on the list of top 10 performing Exchanges as were Pakistan, Nigeria and Zambia.

The Fed is gradually reducing the amount of money pumped monthly into the US economy, ending the programme altogether in Dec 2014!

The party is about over. The big boys have eaten the choice cuts. In 2014 the scavengers will be picking the bones and skins and in 2015 Wanjiku will be cleaning the mess.
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#19 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 10:49:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
sparkly wrote:
dunkang wrote:
@deal, the same was said between 2012-2013, i stocked dollars (10K to be precise) only for the market to think otherwise.

What am saying is that, LET THE MARKET DO WHATEVER IT WANT. I can't control it, neither can you! TUKO TAYARI


Dunkang when its comes to the so called "economic cycles" its better to look at the global trends rather than look at the local market in isolation.

In 2012 the US economic was in doldrums. Then in Sept 2012 the Federal Reserve came up with an economic stimulus dubbed Quantitative Easing (QE), a fancy term for pumping cash money to the tune of $85B into the economy.

Guess where the extra cash went to? To financial markets, instead of the productive sectors of the economy... surprise, surprise!

As a result in 2013 the US stock markets climbed by 29.6% (S&P) and 38% (NASDAQ) the biggest rise since late 90s.

A good chunk of the money went into foreign markets notably the beaten up economies of Europe and Frontier markets of Asia and Africa. Consequently Greece, Iceland and Ireland were on the list of top 10 performing Exchanges as were Pakistan, Nigeria and Zambia.

The Fed is gradually reducing the amount of money pumped monthly into the US economy, ending the programme altogether in Dec 2014!

The party is about over. The big boys have eaten the choice cuts. In 2014 the scavengers will be picking the bones and skins and in 2015 Wanjiku will be cleaning the mess.


Like I said before... There is too much theory applied!

Will the fed tapering stop Kenya from becoming a middle income country in 10 years??

Haya mambo of entering and exiting the market because of short term issues will lead one to be poorer than the average investor!

Just Ask Buffet who is buying more today than he has ever bought...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
symbols
#20 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 12:40:18 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
murchr wrote:
symbols wrote:
murchr wrote:
Any seasoned Wazuan knows what @Sparky means. The theory was composed by @Chessmaster before he became @symbols. The real estate threads however are still here so @sparky mambo bado. We're still partying


What theory?


You had some long explanation on the behavior of wanjiku and the NSE but cant dig it. Anyway..@hisah uses it alot in his posts here's an example.

Aguytrying wrote:
I have now seen the signs of the bull and its slaughter. If you looked at the NSE today you'd be forgiven for thinking you were looking at 2010. The casual investors are gaining confidence in the market day by day. They know how much safcom is trading at. wait for the headlines when it reaches 10.00.
For other investors, this should really be a time of fear, fear of extreme over valuation. do you sell, do you hold? you certainly cant buy over valued counters? or can you? choice is yours.
It will be a time of great joy until its not. the oil finds complicate issues, the bull may last a long long time and if the market start rallying like crazy every year, who will want to be left of stocks?
That's why i say its a time to be fearful. Fortunately, there are some counters that for one reason or another have not joined the fair valuation bandwagon or are "only" fairly valued ( we can now afford to be ok with fairly valued) so that gives some respite for now.


Then hisah responded
hisah wrote:
Still a distance away from the euphoria of 2005 - 2006 when crap was floating higher than solid counters and the avg market PER has not yet vaulted above 15 heading towards 20. Still a lot of plots and houses for sale threads as real estate fights with equities... Wanjiku will be back and it'll be obvious on the investor section threads...


Post 4314


Well I won't deny it though it might not necessarily apply to Hellos.Though,I still firmly believe Scom IPO killed the confidence for many new entrants and last year restored it for some.
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