Wazua
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Playing the market 2014 - 2016
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/3/2012 Posts: 1,317
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@stocksmaster superb analysis. Its up there with the very best. May I spice up your 40% Cash fund into insurance I would say 20% CFCI and 10% each for PAFR & CIC.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
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sparkly wrote:My Portfolio is as follows:
Security-WAP(cost) - % Portfolio
CENTUM - 13 - 25%
KENGEN - 10 - 21%
HF - 14 - 18%
NIC - 29 - 9%
KCB - 24 - 8%
KQ - 14 - 6%
TPS - 45 - 6%
KK - 13 - 5%
UCHUMI - NM - 1%
My plans for 2014 are:
1. Lighten - Kengen, NIC, KCB, KK
3. Accumulate- HF, Centum, KQ, TPS
4. Don't care - Uchumi
I foresee a bear in 2015 where i will accumulate the following at the right prices - EABL, NMG, ARM, Kakuzi. @sparkly, you have too many companies in your portfolio. How do you manage to follow up. Lose kk, KQ & consolidate some of the finacials. İ have only 3 companies Nic, uchumi & kengen and i plan to buy aggressively during the rights issues.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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dunkang wrote:I am thinking of picking KPLC (~13) or KenGen (~12), but am worried about the GoK anti-business inteference in the energy sector. it worries alot. Too political. http://allafrica.com/stories/201401030404.html
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Metasploit wrote:[quote=dunkang]I am thinking of picking KPLC (~13) or KenGen (~12), but am worried about the GoK anti-business inteference in the energy sector. it worries alot. Too political. http://allafrica.com/stories/201401030404.html[/quote] For trading,Kengen is good.It always swings and now it is really oversold.Rebound in the offing.Just like Safcom,it doesnt disappoint traders
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Well My portfolio is similar to the one of stocksmaster, but I have been holding for over 1 year now. HFCK (14) 20% TPSEA (49) 35% KK (9.5) 25% CFC Bank (66) 20% Still holding. and happy to hold. The only stock i would add to my list is I&M bank. It has more potential than DTB in my view, and has a healthy dividend, just wait for it when its announced! Strangely, i Would speculate in EABL at 290.00, and EQuity at 31.00, coz its at a relative discount. On TPSE. Intrestingly one of the reasons im investing on TPSEA( apart from undervaluation) is coz of GOV commitment to grow tourism numbers. Glad to be thinking like the gurus. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 463 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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Metasploit wrote:Metasploit wrote:[quote=dunkang]I am thinking of picking KPLC (~13) or KenGen (~12), but am worried about the GoK anti-business inteference in the energy sector. it worries alot. Too political. http://allafrica.com/stories/201401030404.html[/quote] For trading,Kengen is good.It always swings and now it is really oversold.Rebound in the offing.Just like Safcom,it doesnt disappoint traders With a forthcoming 1:1 rights issue within the next 3-6 months, it will be interesting to see if the government will take up its rights. If it doesn't, then its 70% shareholding should reduce to 35% and a reorganisation of the mainly politically appointed board of directors should follow. Kengen needs a serious anchor shareholder with expertise In energy sector (equivalent of Vodafone in Safaricom). Before the rights are done and dusted, the share should be available at the Ksh 10 price levels as the market waits to see the governments move as concerns the rights (hopefully it will sell its rights to an anchor shareholder) in addition to the rights pricing. Happy hunting. x handle: @stocksmaster79
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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Wazuans,
I am a new member freshly minted, I stumbled upon this site as I was doing research on stocks. I have a few comments and questions.
First is to thank all of you for contributing this great content.
Second I went through the links to the previous years topics. @stocksmaster you were speculating and had 1 year targets. With the new 3 year target are you still speculating or this is more for the medium term? Are your targets here for your "speculation account" only or for both "speculation" and "long term" account?
Third I think the three picks are good, with TPSE being my least favorite of the three. I think there are other options that will do better over the course of 3 years e.g. Centum, Britam
Fourth Some thoughts. I am reentering the market having sold all my holdings late last year. Before I stumbled on this, my plan was:
30% Housing Finance
20% Britam or Centum
20% Transcentury or EA Cables
30% Rights Issues: Kengen, Uchumi, NBK
Again thanks all. I am glad to be here.
The fear of the Lord is the beginning of Wisdom
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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stocksmaster wrote:Metasploit wrote:Metasploit wrote:[quote=dunkang]I am thinking of picking KPLC (~13) or KenGen (~12), but am worried about the GoK anti-business inteference in the energy sector. it worries alot. Too political. http://allafrica.com/stories/201401030404.html[/quote] For trading,Kengen is good.It always swings and now it is really oversold.Rebound in the offing.Just like Safcom,it doesnt disappoint traders With a forthcoming 1:1 rights issue within the next 3-6 months, it will be interesting to see if the government will take up its rights. If it doesn't, then its 70% shareholding should reduce to 35% and a reorganisation of the mainly politically appointed board of directors should follow. Kengen needs a serious anchor shareholder with expertise In energy sector (equivalent of Vodafone in Safaricom). Before the rights are done and dusted, the share should be available at the Ksh 10 price levels as the market waits to see the governments move as concerns the rights (hopefully it will sell its rights to an anchor shareholder) in addition to the rights pricing. Happy hunting. I believe so too about GOK and KENGEN tho the Gov is keen on the sector so they will make sure they are the major shareholder tho diluted. I think there is a reason why GE is here...am watching "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/26/2006 Posts: 463 Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
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murchr wrote:stocksmaster wrote:Metasploit wrote:Metasploit wrote:[quote=dunkang]I am thinking of picking KPLC (~13) or KenGen (~12), but am worried about the GoK anti-business inteference in the energy sector. it worries alot. Too political. http://allafrica.com/stories/201401030404.html[/quote] For trading,Kengen is good.It always swings and now it is really oversold.Rebound in the offing.Just like Safcom,it doesnt disappoint traders With a forthcoming 1:1 rights issue within the next 3-6 months, it will be interesting to see if the government will take up its rights. If it doesn't, then its 70% shareholding should reduce to 35% and a reorganisation of the mainly politically appointed board of directors should follow. Kengen needs a serious anchor shareholder with expertise In energy sector (equivalent of Vodafone in Safaricom). Before the rights are done and dusted, the share should be available at the Ksh 10 price levels as the market waits to see the governments move as concerns the rights (hopefully it will sell its rights to an anchor shareholder) in addition to the rights pricing. Happy hunting. I believe so too about GOK and KENGEN tho the Gov is keen on the sector so they will make sure they are the major shareholder tho diluted. I think there is a reason why GE is here...am watching I suspect GE wants in. The investments projected do need the stewardship of such a player. However, i doubt GE would invest without Board control. Happy hunting. x handle: @stocksmaster79
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,346 Location: Nairobi
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stocksmaster wrote:Metasploit wrote:Metasploit wrote:[quote=dunkang]I am thinking of picking KPLC (~13) or KenGen (~12), but am worried about the GoK anti-business inteference in the energy sector. it worries alot. Too political. http://allafrica.com/stories/201401030404.html[/quote] For trading,Kengen is good.It always swings and now it is really oversold.Rebound in the offing.Just like Safcom,it doesnt disappoint traders With a forthcoming 1:1 rights issue within the next 3-6 months, it will be interesting to see if the government will take up its rights. If it doesn't, then its 70% shareholding should reduce to 35% and a reorganisation of the mainly politically appointed board of directors should follow. Kengen needs a serious anchor shareholder with expertise In energy sector (equivalent of Vodafone in Safaricom). Before the rights are done and dusted, the share should be available at the Ksh 10 price levels as the market waits to see the governments move as concerns the rights (hopefully it will sell its rights to an anchor shareholder) in addition to the rights pricing. Happy hunting. Too many contracts up for grabs for GoK to let their shareholding fall below 50% + 1 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Wazua
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Playing the market 2014 - 2016
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