NSE closed 2013 below 5000 despite the mad rush in the market... That level rejected bulls more than 3 times. Got concerned when 5100 also threw a fit and resembles a classic upthrust push. 5000 - 5500 is a resistance forest that needs sizable bid volume to dismiss. That power has been foreign based. Foreign markets sit at frothy high levels currently with some TA tools flashing red. E.g. Dow's 10yr chart RSI overbought trendline has refused to cheer the mad rally towards 16k level. FTSE too not looking solid. The equities bull is pinned at Q4 2011 and gold went down hard from all time highs. Q4 2013 some interesting volume is noted on equities with gold the opp of 2011. NSE bid power is from foreigners whose markets are frothy and a selloff looks very likely as volatility reminds markets that it still lurks around.
Risk management will be key this year whether at NSE or global marts. Keep an eye on gold, USD, 10yr US bonds as well as UK, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Turkey, Saudi, S.Korea, Indonesia, China & Jap for global snapshot.
I still fancy NSE laggards (KK, NBK, KPLC) and expect them to withstand or fair better when the selling weather sets in. MSC is not yet there. Just to add HAFR will cook more turkeys and the volume tells the story; high vol causing price dive kama MSC. Caution.
Added KK @9.40 and KQ @10.50 (when highlighting the breakout to @obiero) to make it Mpesa bank, CFC, member, KK, KQ and PAFR (though a small size which I took while I debated with NBK for quick trade gains. Will sell post FY results).
I don't fancy financials this year and will only keep CFC for my trading game. Globally bearish on equties esp financials, getting ready to short sell a lot. Expect to see a strong USD though briefly. Bullish on gold/silver and fancy the swiss franc. That euro/swiss floor @1.20 will be where the fight starts when it breaks down...
All the best in 2014...
#Markets hate confessions which are too many now... Confessions precede a debasement.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!