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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
sparkly
#4576 Posted : Wednesday, January 01, 2014 1:27:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
young wrote:
For the luggard blue chips that will perform
well in 2014 consider
EABL 290 or below
BAMBURI below 200

Eabl will peak at 400 bob and Bamburi at
320 bob when the chips are down as they
are at their bottoms at the moment.

Also KENGEN below 14 bob is a good entry
point as it will peak at 21 bob in 2014.


But dont forget the 3 stars
Safaricom at 15 bob in 2014
Panafric at 120 bob in 2014
HFCK at 45 bob in 2014


Bamburi and Safaricom too ambitious. Too much price competition in cement sector. Safaricom already trading on high PE multiples dont expect much growth in revenues.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4577 Posted : Wednesday, January 01, 2014 1:31:26 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Left to hope, wherever you are Cde Youcan'tstopusnow aka @ycsun - Big Up!! Of course, "GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE"


Hope he's ok, unlike him to be this silent

I miss his contributions on matters oil exploration!
@SufficientlyP
murchr
#4578 Posted : Wednesday, January 01, 2014 2:26:21 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Left to hope, wherever you are Cde Youcan'tstopusnow aka @ycsun - Big Up!! Of course, "GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE"


Hope he's ok, unlike him to be this silent

I miss his contributions on matters oil exploration!


I miss them too he's been away since Aug I hope he's fine
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#4579 Posted : Friday, January 03, 2014 7:02:14 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
hisah
#4580 Posted : Friday, January 03, 2014 7:05:36 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NSE closed 2013 below 5000 despite the mad rush in the market... That level rejected bulls more than 3 times. Got concerned when 5100 also threw a fit and resembles a classic upthrust push. 5000 - 5500 is a resistance forest that needs sizable bid volume to dismiss. That power has been foreign based. Foreign markets sit at frothy high levels currently with some TA tools flashing red. E.g. Dow's 10yr chart RSI overbought trendline has refused to cheer the mad rally towards 16k level. FTSE too not looking solid. The equities bull is pinned at Q4 2011 and gold went down hard from all time highs. Q4 2013 some interesting volume is noted on equities with gold the opp of 2011. NSE bid power is from foreigners whose markets are frothy and a selloff looks very likely as volatility reminds markets that it still lurks around.

Risk management will be key this year whether at NSE or global marts. Keep an eye on gold, USD, 10yr US bonds as well as UK, Italy, Spain, Ireland, Turkey, Saudi, S.Korea, Indonesia, China & Jap for global snapshot.

I still fancy NSE laggards (KK, NBK, KPLC) and expect them to withstand or fair better when the selling weather sets in. MSC is not yet there. Just to add HAFR will cook more turkeys and the volume tells the story; high vol causing price dive kama MSC. Caution.

Added KK @9.40 and KQ @10.50 (when highlighting the breakout to @obiero) to make it Mpesa bank, CFC, member, KK, KQ and PAFR (though a small size which I took while I debated with NBK for quick trade gains. Will sell post FY results).

I don't fancy financials this year and will only keep CFC for my trading game.

Globally bearish on equties esp financials, getting ready to short sell a lot. Expect to see a strong USD though briefly. Bullish on gold/silver and fancy the swiss franc. That euro/swiss floor @1.20 will be where the fight starts when it breaks down...

All the best in 2014...

#Markets hate confessions which are too many now... Confessions precede a debasement.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#4581 Posted : Friday, January 03, 2014 5:05:20 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@Hisah.
when you started this thread many didn't agree with you, with the market bullish and folks eyeing profits from current levels. Many wont agree with you now. As for me, Im listening.
I feel i should move part of my investment to bonds coz most shares at the moment are achieving fair valuation and especially banks given the change in rules ahead, even more of a reason.... Now if i can just hit those targets....
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
iller
#4582 Posted : Sunday, January 05, 2014 2:47:29 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/25/2013
Posts: 552
Location: Asgard
murchr wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Left to hope, wherever you are Cde Youcan'tstopusnow aka @ycsun - Big Up!! Of course, "GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE"


Hope he's ok, unlike him to be this silent

I miss his contributions on matters oil exploration!


I miss them too he's been away since Aug I hope he's fine


No need to worry, he's okay. He passes his regards
Metasploit
#4583 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 12:05:48 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#4584 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 12:54:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!
@SufficientlyP
Kanjora1
#4585 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 2:16:21 PM
Rank: New-farer

Joined: 8/7/2012
Posts: 39
Grinning broadly for Centum!!
Metasploit
#4586 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 3:23:15 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!


Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy.

Lets see how it closes the week


“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
dunkang
#4587 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 3:31:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,824
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Metasploit wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!


Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy.

Lets see how it closes the week


smile
Just hoping they are not "HELLO" Foreigners
smile
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Metasploit
#4588 Posted : Monday, January 06, 2014 4:37:13 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
dunkang wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
Metasploit wrote:
Foreign comeback in full gear.

Watch how selected counters will cruise.

Eyes on Safaricom and Centum

Certainly a Great start for these two.
Mpesa firmly back in 11 territory!


Mpesa closes at 11.05,a high of 11.15 and VWAP 11.05.Volume at 9.5M with 71% Net foreign buy.

Lets see how it closes the week


smile
Just hoping they are not "HELLO" Foreigners
smile


Laughing out loudly!!

Lets see how it closes the week!This will give an indication on the price direction.Low volume might be due to diminished supply.so its important to observe whether supply will build up as price flirts with 11.30-11.50 levels.

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
mlennyma
#4589 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 11:49:53 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,194
Location: nairobi
No much supply across most counters as i thought january would be,the reporting season will be very interesting to watch.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
Aguytrying
#4590 Posted : Tuesday, January 07, 2014 10:18:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
mlennyma wrote:
No much supply across most counters as i thought january would be,the reporting season will be very interesting to watch.


In this market you sell a good share you regret almost immediately. I think its time to hold good stocks. just hold. I'm holding hfck, cfc, kk, tpse. even kk has turned green nowadays.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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