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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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hisah
#4521 Posted : Saturday, December 07, 2013 6:43:08 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
obiero wrote:
need to learn the bolingo bands mumbo jambo.. honestly I dont look at the neck and shoulders as implied on CNBC and other authorities.. iv seen them fail in NSE.. but all the same, I need to learn

Depends on how one reads the chart. I pointed KQ to you using BB as it signalled a trend shift. A replica of CFCI back in Feb 2013. BB on NBK meant that price above 22.40 would signal trend shift on the bull side. MSC BB hinted price crash from 5/- zone etc. At the moment mpesa bank & total have a very wide BB which makes BB not effective for trend reading.

BB is effective at pointing breakout events (bull or bear) once the BB constrict for a while. Constriction arises from sideways price trade - narrow range as buyers & sellers measure each other. Then volume spikes check in and soon the compressed BB breaks out. Upper BB break is bullish and vice versa. As always one TA tool is not enough and needs to be used with other for confirmation. More useful when combined with fundies. Works for me @NSE & other markets and i've put out charts many times and some are against the crowd's expectation. Always profitable trading against the crowd at sentiment extremes e.g. KQ mbus at the moment.

When short selling checks in @NSE, cartoons will become more visible...

Happy holidays... smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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hisah
#4522 Posted : Saturday, December 07, 2013 7:07:31 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
mwekez@ji wrote:
African Bourses From Nairobi to Abidjan Luring IPOs After Rally

The return of IPO madness. I expect IPOs to flip solid gains in order to lure wanjikus back into the market. Then the hot IPO talks will start and the bubble with start to froth. And then, the end... Wash, rinse repeat till wanjikus learn and give up on the market and the casinos run out globally...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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mwekez@ji
#4523 Posted : Saturday, December 07, 2013 11:05:12 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Metasploit, murchr ;) Am out of the counter for now
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  | | Edit by moderator: Wednesday, December 18, 2013 11:30 AM | Reason: picture size
Cde Monomotapa
#4524 Posted : Saturday, December 07, 2013 11:45:46 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
African Bourses From Nairobi to Abidjan Luring IPOs After Rally

The return of IPO madness. I expect IPOs to flip solid gains in order to lure wanjikus back into the market. Then the hot IPO talks will start and the bubble with start to froth. And then, the end... Wash, rinse repeat till wanjikus learn and give up on the market and the casinos run out globally...


If Kenya Re is to the West, Abijan, and hence, by extension ECOWAS and then through ZEP-RE COMESA, why is this (continental) Operation still so undervalued? Ivory coast is recording 7-9% in GDP. Smh.. Oh well...
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Mukiri
#4525 Posted : Saturday, December 07, 2013 1:32:42 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
need to learn the bolingo bands mumbo jambo.. honestly I dont look at the neck and shoulders as implied on CNBC and other authorities.. iv seen them fail in NSE.. but all the same, I need to learn

Depends on how one reads the chart. I pointed KQ to you using BB as it signalled a trend shift. A replica of CFCI back in Feb 2013. BB on NBK meant that price above 22.40 would signal trend shift on the bull side. MSC BB hinted price crash from 5/- zone etc. At the moment mpesa bank & total have a very wide BB which makes BB not effective for trend reading.

BB is effective at pointing breakout events (bull or bear) once the BB constrict for a while. Constriction arises from sideways price trade - narrow range as buyers & sellers measure each other. Then volume spikes check in and soon the compressed BB breaks out. Upper BB break is bullish and vice versa. As always one TA tool is not enough and needs to be used with other for confirmation. More useful when combined with fundies. Works for me @NSE & other markets and i've put out charts many times and some are against the crowd's expectation. Always profitable trading against the crowd at sentiment extremes e.g. KQ mbus at the moment.

When short selling checks in @NSE, cartoons will become more visible...

Happy holidays... smile

Learning is a process and some counters leave one with nostalgia. Like KQ, those who've suffered loss might eye it with suspicion, despite its transformation into a cash cow. Just like mpesa a while ago. Most important lesson learnt this year, is that there is no room for emotion in the market.

Proverbs 19:21
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Metasploit
#4526 Posted : Saturday, December 07, 2013 3:32:46 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 985
Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
mwekez@ji wrote:
Metasploit, murchr ;) Am out of the counter for now



Mwekezaji..This one i disembark at 35.75.I had bought it like 2 weeks before
and it was very bullish touching a high of 38.Then the Q3 results disappointment.
Incurred a loss of Ksh 60,000 on commission charges which were cancelled by gains
i got from KQ(Made 14% in less than a week) and CIC (made 17% in less than a week).

Now very liquid and eyeing Safcom (lots of weakness means can test 10 or slightly below
at good volumes),KCB (Really oversold..Weakness in counter means i can get it at 44 or
there bouts.Volume spike at 45-46 confirms its still bulish unlike Equity Bank)

Mwekezaji.How do you upload the chart to Wazua from FT (Can you please do the chart for the 6 month period and using candle sticks.thanks)

Surprised the insurance sector is taking this heat fairly well.so i added some CIC at 5.50

“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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  | | Edit by moderator: Wednesday, December 18, 2013 11:32 AM | Reason: picture size
obiero
#4527 Posted : Saturday, December 07, 2013 3:44:27 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,213
Location: nairobi
hisah wrote:
obiero wrote:
need to learn the bolingo bands mumbo jambo.. honestly I dont look at the neck and shoulders as implied on CNBC and other authorities.. iv seen them fail in NSE.. but all the same, I need to learn

Depends on how one reads the chart. I pointed KQ to you using BB as it signalled a trend shift. A replica of CFCI back in Feb 2013. BB on NBK meant that price above 22.40 would signal trend shift on the bull side. MSC BB hinted price crash from 5/- zone etc. At the moment mpesa bank & total have a very wide BB which makes BB not effective for trend reading.

BB is effective at pointing breakout events (bull or bear) once the BB constrict for a while. Constriction arises from sideways price trade - narrow range as buyers & sellers measure each other. Then volume spikes check in and soon the compressed BB breaks out. Upper BB break is bullish and vice versa. As always one TA tool is not enough and needs to be used with other for confirmation. More useful when combined with fundies. Works for me @NSE & other markets and i've put out charts many times and some are against the crowd's expectation. Always profitable trading against the crowd at sentiment extremes e.g. KQ mbus at the moment.

When short selling checks in @NSE, cartoons will become more visible...

Happy holidays... smile

thanks man. lakini I started buyin KQ in March based on fundamentals and not bolingo bands.. im sure the bands havent told guys that KQ may trade at KES 25 by May 2014

KQ ABP 4.26
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murchr
#4528 Posted : Sunday, December 08, 2013 4:20:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
mwekez@ji wrote:
Metasploit, murchr ;) Am out of the counter for now



@mweke, you have to show us how to post charts here, @CDE dont worry that stock will have its day, its one of the few gems remaining. EPS & PE of 4.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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  | | Edit by moderator: Wednesday, December 18, 2013 11:31 AM | Reason: picture size
Cde Monomotapa
#4529 Posted : Sunday, December 08, 2013 11:49:30 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
murchr wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
Metasploit, murchr ;) Am out of the counter for now



@mweke, you have to show us how to post charts here, @CDE dont worry that stock will have its day, its one of the few gems remaining. EPS & PE of 4.

Market value to shareholder funds is 11B* to 16B* i.e 0.7X* - Surely...Sawaz.
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  | | Edit by moderator: Wednesday, December 18, 2013 11:31 AM | Reason: picture size
murchr
#4530 Posted : Monday, December 09, 2013 4:28:53 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
The Bourse opened the week with a total of 21M shares valued at Kes.535M, up from Kes.441M on a volume of 28M shares posted last Friday.

The NSE 20 Share Index shed 7.46 points to stand at 4969.32.
All Share Index (NASI) eased 0.48 points to stand at 136.22.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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