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Kengen success
Scubidu
#11 Posted : Saturday, October 10, 2009 7:38:00 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
Indeed KenGen lacked the cashflows even for the original intended borrowing of Sh15 bn. It's only lifeline are its geothermal projects and hydro projects are simply not worth the hassle despite how cheap they are. Hydro cannot be relied on. Thermal power is effective in the short term but the money expended on fuel costs can cover the expansion of geothermal easily (short term pains for long term gains). Even the market for carbon credit is still relatively unprofitable for the new projects. In my opinion it is time to dump the stock. They intend to issue new stock twice over the next five years without even paying a single dividend. That's no incentive to be a shareholder. Being a bondholder,well now,that's a whole different question.

SCUBI
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
itz
#12 Posted : Saturday, October 10, 2009 8:28:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 3/20/2009
Posts: 348
another high capital intensive business.will be long before you can get any reasonable returns.the bonds are a good investment because of the return but are also have a high risk of default.i would be contrarian and invest in companies that will benefit from increased uninterrupted power supply like KPLC (read more profits because they deliver directly to consumer),manufucters like EABL and cement companies if Comesa doesnt zero rate import duty on the commodity.
Brewer
#13 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2009 6:40:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/24/2008
Posts: 238
I believe the bond borrowing is not just about financial cost but should improve the income stream. We know from @mainat that the financial cost will be 3.1b per year. How about the returns on increased generation capacity?
mukiha
#14 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2009 6:56:00 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
@TruthOpiner; You make very serious accusations without giving any facts to back them.

'The only winners from this bond will be the brokers who have already collected their fee's and transcentury,which will eat most of the public's money.'

I can see how brokers will make money from commissions,but hows does Transcentury enter into the equation? And how will it 'eat most of the public's money'?

========================

On the plus side; there is a shortage of elec in Kenya and KenGen has raised more than enough to meet that shortage in the next two years...this will mean more income for the company.

On the minus side; this bond is quite expensive for Kengen. But it has two advantages: (1) It is shilling denominated thus shielded from FX swings; (2) It has an option for early redemption....a good plan,just in case interest rates go down in future...



Behind the gardens...Behind the wall...Under the tree (Including: Red...Dark Blue...Yellow)
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
pm
#15 Posted : Monday, October 12, 2009 8:45:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/11/2006
Posts: 60




What worries me about kenGen:



Are they looking at sensible power generation to meet national needs,personally,wind,geothermal,are at best experimental and falls way short of meeting national goals.
Political influence - when public complains of power costs,there is bound to be plenty of political arms twisting for this quasi-governmental organization.
Bonds may hijack profits ahead of shareholders interests,BUT,I'm elated KenGen had the wisdom to raise capital locally instead from world organizations as was proposed when KenGen was going public (at the time,that was my main reason for not participating in the IPO)
Personal greed / political appointments for KenGen makes me weary....



Brewer
#16 Posted : Tuesday, October 13, 2009 10:34:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/24/2008
Posts: 238
BTW,Kengen financial year ends June. Where are the reports?
across
#17 Posted : Wednesday, October 14, 2009 5:31:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 5/7/2008
Posts: 54
@ Truth opiner....when you say...'You'd have to be an utter fool to invest in the NSE,3yrs before 2012'....what do u mean?when is the best time? In my opinion that is a misplaced comment.
The General
#18 Posted : Friday, October 16, 2009 7:15:00 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553
Pretax profit up 48%

Profit jumps to 48pc

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
cnn
#19 Posted : Friday, October 16, 2009 7:54:00 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
But for the shareholder? EPS down to 0.98 shiillings from 2.68! not good.Bring on KPLC.

see it through my lens?
The General
#20 Posted : Wednesday, November 11, 2009 1:17:00 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 6/3/2006
Posts: 553

GDC will inject 100MW annually to the national grid

The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
The thicker the thigh the sweeter the pie.
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