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How to tell NSE has bottomed out
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Aguytrying
#4451 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 8:37:28 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
I'm invested, but i love what is happening to the n.s.e. Why? Its an opportunity to buy, and by 2013, which ever way elections go the market will recover. Like last time, besides, i'm rather optimistic of a peaceful election.

Post 15 stated back in July 14 2011.

@aguy - tumetoka mbali smile


for sure. I'm glad I had process even then. process over results. this bull/pseudo bull is scaring me.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#4452 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 9:12:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@VVS. what are your reactions to the market now? most are losing their heads. your flock need you during these turbulent times.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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hisah
#4453 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 11:03:45 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Wow! Just seen that the Tanzania Share Index (TSI) has rallied more than 100% since 30/11/2012 when it closed @1,362.40. It closed on 26/11/2013 @2,743.35 with a number of shares already flipping more than 100%.

Also note the overall equity market turnover giant spike this year in Tz.

http://www.dse.co.tz/admin/marketreport/134.pdf

And you thought NSE has rallied. Another cursory look at GSE shows an interesting meltup in Ghana...

@aguy - look at the Mongolia Stock Exchange Top 20 Index between Feb 2009 and Feb 2011 when the index went from 4600 to 33000pts!!! And recently Venezuela stocks meltup when Chavez sickness meant he would step down. Madness bulls morphed into bisons...!

I can hardly imagine such meltups the entire EA. In KE plot/shamba sellers would be lost for words as 2005-2006 bull madness is superceded?!

#Value investors in such madness busts would get lost in disbelief. But eventually the when sanity gets back, they'd be the ones left standing.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Wednesday, November 27, 2013 11:05 PM | Reason: Not specified
murchr
#4454 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 11:16:55 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
@hisah i tend to think all this madness is caused by the hydrocarbon play...even Ghana's market started rallying when tullow started making news. I think we've seen nothing yet
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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Cde Monomotapa
#4455 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 11:17:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
hisah wrote:
Wow! Just seen that the Tanzania Share Index (TSI) has rallied more than 100% since 30/11/2012 when it closed @1,362.40. It closed on 26/11/2013 @2,743.35 with a number of shares already flipping more than 100%.

Also note the overall equity market turnover giant spike this year in Tz.

http://www.dse.co.tz/admin/marketreport/134.pdf

And you thought NSE has rallied. Another cursory look at GSE shows an interesting meltup in Ghana...

@aguy - look at the Mongolia Stock Exchange Top 20 Index between Feb 2009 and Feb 2011 when the index went from 4600 to 33000pts!!! And recently Venezuela stocks meltup when Chavez sickness meant he would step down. Madness bulls morphed into bisons...!

I can hardly imagine such meltups the entire EA. In KE plot/shamba sellers would be lost for words as 2005-2006 bull madness is superceded?!

#Value investors in such madness busts would get lost in disbelief. But eventually the when sanity gets back, they'd be the ones left standing.


Probably some more impetus? Re: ICC barrier - Assembly of State Parties amends Article 134 of rules: President and Deputy can be represented by Counsel. http://ow.ly/rfifl
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hisah
#4456 Posted : Thursday, November 28, 2013 6:08:19 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
@hisah i tend to think all this madness is caused by the hydrocarbon play...even Ghana's market started rallying when tullow started making news. I think we've seen nothing yet

Large mineral deposit discoveries often lead to such strong meltups. NSE is yet to go parabolic. When it does, cartoons and fundies will struggle to get the picture as things overheat... I prefer an orderly build up since parabolic moves often end badly like ponzis...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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VituVingiSana
#4457 Posted : Thursday, November 28, 2013 6:24:42 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,349
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
@VVS. what are your reactions to the market now? most are losing their heads. your flock need you during these turbulent times.
I am flabbergasted. Too much, too fast, too soon.

Britam - I decided to bail out on Britam (which I like) when prices hit 13... then out 99% at 15 but now it is 16.90 when the NAV is 10-ish.

KQ - I think we need to see the Operational Profits. They may have made money of hedges [oil prices are falling] but this is very complex and dynamic. I do not know how to price them with the limited info shareholders are given. I bailed ages ago at 13.70 during/after the Rights.

I&M - I am staying in. A poor 1Q but prudent loan growth with lower than average NPLs in 3Q 2013, Capital Raising to expand local business and expected opening in Uganda in 2014, Subsidiaries are kicking in, etc.

HFCK - At 30, I am in but worried about NPLs though recovery rates are good just takes years through the courts. The new land laws worry me.

Equity - I like them at this price but NO MORE 50-100% growth in EPS. Now it will settle in at 10-30% annual growth at best.

KK - All in. If anything, this is the one I would buy more of BUT no dividend for 2013 as it pays down debt.

Cash is good. Keep plenty at hand.




Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, November 28, 2013 6:28 AM | Reason: Not specified
cnn
#4458 Posted : Thursday, November 28, 2013 10:52:13 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
VituVingiSana wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
@VVS. what are your reactions to the market now? most are losing their heads. your flock need you during these turbulent times.
I am flabbergasted. Too much, too fast, too soon.

Britam - I decided to bail out on Britam (which I like) when prices hit 13... then out 99% at 15 but now it is 16.90 when the NAV is 10-ish.

KQ - I think we need to see the Operational Profits. They may have made money of hedges [oil prices are falling] but this is very complex and dynamic. I do not know how to price them with the limited info shareholders are given. I bailed ages ago at 13.70 during/after the Rights.

I&M - I am staying in. A poor 1Q but prudent loan growth with lower than average NPLs in 3Q 2013, Capital Raising to expand local business and expected opening in Uganda in 2014, Subsidiaries are kicking in, etc.

HFCK - At 30, I am in but worried about NPLs though recovery rates are good just takes years through the courts. The new land laws worry me.

Equity - I like them at this price but NO MORE 50-100% growth in EPS. Now it will settle in at 10-30% annual growth at best.

KK - All in. If anything, this is the one I would buy more of BUT no dividend for 2013 as it pays down debt.

Cash is good. Keep plenty at hand.





Slowly getting to that position,one has to capture some of these gains.
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cnn
#4459 Posted : Thursday, November 28, 2013 10:59:33 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,627
obiero wrote:
cnn wrote:
My long held BAT @ 600...held from 138, it has been a patient wait....but this one i will never sell.

138 to 600 is quite good.. but how many shares at such a high entry price can an average guy afford.. not many, if u ask me

Even a batch of 10K shares means a healthy capital gains return,but sweeter are the dividends which are my reason to hold.
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Ericsson
#4460 Posted : Thursday, November 28, 2013 1:46:03 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,808
Location: NAIROBI
Profit taking about to begin.Hold your guns
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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