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Quails another Tulipmania?
mchambuzi
#1 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 4:55:31 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/17/2013
Posts: 80
Location: Juja
Here is a summarised explanation of what happened in tulipmania "Tulipmania was the first major financial bubble. Investors began to madly purchase tulips, pushing their prices to unprecedented highs; the average price of a single flower exceeded the annual income of a skilled worker. Tulips sold for over 4000 florins, the currency of the Netherlands at the time. As prices drastically collapsed over the course of a week, many tulip holders instantly went bankrupt." Read more from wikipedia

Why it the quailmania is likely to collapse?

1. Those who are established are the ones who are selling to newbies, aggressively marketing it and publishing stories online. If they are making as much exporting or selling as consumables, no one would bother coming online to encourage you to compete with them in the market.
2. Its a high end product. Relative to the size, its a hard sell locally.
3. People are breeding in large numbers, some forfeiting jobs and taking loans from banks.
which will equate to oversupply.
4. Prices are too high

My opinion: People are rushing into the business because of the success stories in the business, like buying into a stock when its about to peak. If you don't have a signed supply order from someone who is exporting, be careful, you might go bankrupt.
On a long enough timeline, the life expectancy of everyone drops to zero.
YoungMulla
#2 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 5:01:33 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/14/2012
Posts: 562
Location: Nairobi Kenya
just like the rabbit craze... fools rush in.Those already doing it will make money in the short term selling to newcomers. The newcomers will burn their fingers with those tiny birds
Before I die - i will touch the sky!!
chaimani
#3 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 5:04:05 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 25
Location: moscow na muranga
what is this business all about?
chasing after the wind
Impunity
#4 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 5:07:06 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/2/2009
Posts: 25,197
Location: Masada
Ditto!
A quail egg selling for over 70 bob a piece is the craziest craze in town currently.
Na hata haisimamishi as alleged by the ontraprenuaz
Portfolio: Sold
You know you've made it when you get a parking space for your yatcht.

chaimani
#5 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 5:09:04 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 25
Location: moscow na muranga
YoungMulla wrote:
just like the rabbit craze... fools rush in.Those already doing it will make money in the short term selling to newcomers. The newcomers will burn their fingers with those tiny birds

kwani ni agricutural pylamid scheme !! d'oh! d'oh!
chasing after the wind
YoungMulla
#6 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 5:19:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/14/2012
Posts: 562
Location: Nairobi Kenya
chaimani wrote:
YoungMulla wrote:
just like the rabbit craze... fools rush in.Those already doing it will make money in the short term selling to newcomers. The newcomers will burn their fingers with those tiny birds

kwani ni agricutural pylamid scheme !! d'oh! d'oh!



There is simply no demand. Who do you know that consumes quails or their eggs?? I bet none. But due to the hype of how much money is to be made, the breeders will sell to wanjikus and reap big. then the wanjikus will either have to convince someone else to buy for breeding purposes due to lack of real demand, and so the con continues.In the end when the hype dies (which wont be long), those left with the birds wont know what to do with them
Before I die - i will touch the sky!!
mnunuzi
#7 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 5:26:04 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 34
Same thing happened in India. Someone started a story about how sewing machines contained a component " red mercury" and sewing machines started selling for as high as 500k. People took loans to get into the middle-man business. The smart ones cashed in, before it later turned out to be a hoax.
butterflyke
#8 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 7:25:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/1/2010
Posts: 3,024
Location: Hapa
YoungMulla wrote:
chaimani wrote:
YoungMulla wrote:
just like the rabbit craze... fools rush in.Those already doing it will make money in the short term selling to newcomers. The newcomers will burn their fingers with those tiny birds

kwani ni agricutural pylamid scheme !! d'oh! d'oh!



There is simply no demand. Who do you know that consumes quails or their eggs?? I bet none. But due to the hype of how much money is to be made, the breeders will sell to wanjikus and reap big. then the wanjikus will either have to convince someone else to buy for breeding purposes due to lack of real demand, and so the con continues.In the end when the hype dies (which wont be long), those left with the birds wont know what to do with them


there is this craze of demand illusion with people saying 'wazungu wanaipenda sana', that happened with pyrabbit. when it goes downhill.....
Float like a butterfly, sting like a bee. - Muhammad Ali🐝
jaggernaut
#9 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 7:36:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/9/2008
Posts: 5,390
I heard someone saying that eggs are being exported to shaina for traditional medicine.....and that the demand is infinite.
Lolest!
#10 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 7:42:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 10,194
Location: Kianjokoma
chaimani wrote:
YoungMulla wrote:
just like the rabbit craze... fools rush in.Those already doing it will make money in the short term selling to newcomers. The newcomers will burn their fingers with those tiny birds

kwani ni agricutural pylamid scheme !! d'oh! d'oh!

wazuans have a name for this. Quailamid scheme.
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
Lolest!
#11 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 7:46:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/18/2011
Posts: 10,194
Location: Kianjokoma
I have met many who are into this. Cant convince them it doesn't make sense to aggressively stock up products whose market you don't have. If one must enter, they must look out for the turning point for one thing is certain: the qualamid will collapse at some point!
Laughing out loudly smile Applause d'oh! Sad Drool Liar Shame on you Pray
jerry
#12 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 7:48:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,561
Lolest! wrote:
chaimani wrote:
YoungMulla wrote:
just like the rabbit craze... fools rush in.Those already doing it will make money in the short term selling to newcomers. The newcomers will burn their fingers with those tiny birds

kwani ni agricutural pylamid scheme !! d'oh! d'oh!

wazuans have a name for this. Quailamid scheme.

LOL!
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
Ngong
#13 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 10:17:03 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/17/2012
Posts: 1,461
Location: Ngong Forest
Its the only talk in bars nowadays!
King G
#14 Posted : Tuesday, November 26, 2013 10:36:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo
Not heard of these stories, must be keeping wrong companysmile
Thieves
tassia
#15 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 2:01:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/25/2011
Posts: 368
Location: Nairobi
I started this business and had no idea so many people would jump into it. I started the business with the plan of selling eggs for consumption at Kshs 10 per egg. I decided to buy the incubator after I discovered that I needed to wait for about 2 months after booking chicks before they were delivered to me.

Now I have no option but to jump into the craze.

In the next three weeks, I expect to be getting 300 eggs per day. I will put them all in the incubator and I will sell the chicks. If I can have 200 of them survive per day at Kshs 400 per chick, that will be Kshs 80,000 per day and I guess it will not be bad and will only pray that it last for at least one month.

I know someone who gets about 1,000 eggs per day and incubates all. Do the math.

If you ask me, this is not a strange trend when you look at most businesses. An example is the mobile phones and accessories businesses and also the Safaricom agency. The pioneers of these in Kenya are all worth hundreds of millions and some more than a billion. Not many mobile shops are making good money today. Guys who started importing clothes in Thailand, Hongkong and Turkey made their money while most of the clothes businesses you see now are not making any money.

The prices of quail and quail products will come down but we must not forget that we still have chicken farmers who are making money to date. Some chicken farmers have already switched to quail creating another opportunity for chicken farmers because this may lead to scarcity. Even if the price of an egg was to fall to Kshs 7, quail business would still be more profitable that Chicken today.

It will be interesting to see how the demand of chicken is affected when the price of quail stabilizes. Will chicken consumers move to quail?

The fact that the amount of feed taken by one chicken is eaten by 5-7 quails and that quail can start hatching in 6-8 weeks and even hatch more eggs than chicken means that its products can be sold at far less price than chicken and still be able to make better profits than chicken. There are very high chances that there will be many people eating quails. Before the craze started, people were eating but the current prices can only be for breeders and not for consumption.

The above factors and others may just make this business last longer than we estimate. And lets not forget that this is in the food industry which will continue to expand as more and more people move to urban areas.


Rankaz13
#16 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 9:57:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/21/2013
Posts: 2,832
Location: Here
Impunity wrote:
Ditto!
A quail egg selling for over 70 bob a piece is the craziest craze in town currently.
Na hata haisimamishi as alleged by the ontraprenuaz


d'oh! d'oh!
Life is like playing a violin solo in public and learning the instrument as one goes on.
InnovateGuy
#17 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 10:04:24 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/15/2012
Posts: 1,110
Pure craze. Where's the market? I cant wait to laugh at some idiets who have got into this stuff.
Live Full Die Empty - Les Brown.
Sober
#18 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 10:25:22 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/27/2007
Posts: 3,520
Can someone eat this Quail bird after it produces the eggs?
African parents don't know how to say sorry.. the closest you will get to a sorry is a 'have you eaten'
YoungMulla
#19 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 11:03:07 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/14/2012
Posts: 562
Location: Nairobi Kenya
Lolest! wrote:
chaimani wrote:
YoungMulla wrote:
just like the rabbit craze... fools rush in.Those already doing it will make money in the short term selling to newcomers. The newcomers will burn their fingers with those tiny birds

kwani ni agricutural pylamid scheme !! d'oh! d'oh!

wazuans have a name for this. Quailamid scheme.


Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
Before I die - i will touch the sky!!
chaimani
#20 Posted : Wednesday, November 27, 2013 11:45:04 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 25
Location: moscow na muranga
tassia wrote:
I started this business and had no idea so many people would jump into it. I started the business with the plan of selling eggs for consumption at Kshs 10 per egg. I decided to buy the incubator after I discovered that I needed to wait for about 2 months after booking chicks before they were delivered to me.

Now I have no option but to jump into the craze.

In the next three weeks, I expect to be getting 300 eggs per day. I will put them all in the incubator and I will sell the chicks. If I can have 200 of them survive per day at Kshs 400 per chick, that will be Kshs 80,000 per day and I guess it will not be bad and will only pray that it last for at least one month.

I know someone who gets about 1,000 eggs per day and incubates all. Do the math.

If you ask me, this is not a strange trend when you look at most businesses. An example is the mobile phones and accessories businesses and also the Safaricom agency. The pioneers of these in Kenya are all worth hundreds of millions and some more than a billion. Not many mobile shops are making good money today. Guys who started importing clothes in Thailand, Hongkong and Turkey made their money while most of the clothes businesses you see now are not making any money.

The prices of quail and quail products will come down but we must not forget that we still have chicken farmers who are making money to date. Some chicken farmers have already switched to quail creating another opportunity for chicken farmers because this may lead to scarcity. Even if the price of an egg was to fall to Kshs 7, quail business would still be more profitable that Chicken today.

It will be interesting to see how the demand of chicken is affected when the price of quail stabilizes. Will chicken consumers move to quail?

The fact that the amount of feed taken by one chicken is eaten by 5-7 quails and that quail can start hatching in 6-8 weeks and even hatch more eggs than chicken means that its products can be sold at far less price than chicken and still be able to make better profits than chicken. There are very high chances that there will be many people eating quails. Before the craze started, people were eating but the current prices can only be for breeders and not for consumption.

The above factors and others may just make this business last longer than we estimate. And lets not forget that this is in the food industry which will continue to expand as more and more people move to urban areas.


forgive my ignorance but i think the egg of that bird is soo small for a meal,suppose a family of 4 need a good breakfast of eggs,considering the size of that egg and its current price is its economially viable??
Shame on you Shame on you
chasing after the wind
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