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Cde Monomotapa
#41 Posted : Thursday, October 31, 2013 10:12:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
According to the CBK Q3 'Wikileaks'

PROFITABILITY: The banking sector profit before tax for the quarter ended September 2013 decreased by 6.6 percent from Ksh. 33.2 billion in June 2013 quarter compared to Ksh. 31.0 billion for the quarter ending September 2013. Over the same period, total income stood at Ksh. 88.6 billion being a decrease of 4.1 percent from Ksh. 92.4 billion registered in the second quarter of 2013. The decline was partly attributed to the reduction in lending rates. Whilst total expenses decreased by 2.7 percent from Ksh. 59.2 billion in the June 2013 quarter to Ksh. 57.6 billion in the September 2013 quarter. The reduction in expenses was partly attributed to decline in interest paid on deposits. On an annual basis, the profitability of the sector increased by 14.5 percent to Ksh. 92.5 billion in September 2013 from the Ksh. 80.8 billion registered in September 2012.

http://www.centralbank.g...rdBankingsector2013.pdf

Looks like a U-shaped recovery scenario where increased NPLs (hence provisions) will be glossed over by increasing loan uptake & efficiencies/innovations. Declining rates appear to be the elephant in the room near-term. Especially for Kenya-only banks.

Seems results will be very meritorious this time round. Kaeni rada'.


Precisely. Re: KCB. Next....
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obiero
#42 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 9:29:22 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,318
Location: nairobi
On KCB Q3, the mark was surely missed. This necessitates a revision of Equity Bank down to 15.4B. I eagerly await Coop Bank, there is something good happening on that counter
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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mwekez@ji
#43 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 10:15:51 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
@Cde, interesting read this other cbk report released yesterday, titled "Demand for Credit Increases", >>> http://www.centralbank.go.ke/im...YREPORTSEPTEMBER2013.pdf

Summary 1

• The aggregate balance sheet (total assets) increased by 4.4 percent from Ksh 2.51 trillion in June 2013 to Ksh 2.62 trillion in September 2013.

• Gross loans and advances grew by 4.8% from Ksh 1.45 trillion in June 2013 to Ksh 1.52 trillion in September 2013.

• Banking sector deposits increased by 2.7% from Ksh 1.86 trillion in June 2013 to Ksh 1.91 trillion in September 2013.

• Total shareholders’ funds increased by 4.1 percent from Kshs 394.4 billion in June 2013 to Kshs 410.6 billion in September 2013.

• Cumulative unaudited pre-tax profits for the quarter ended 30th September 2013 stood at Kshs 92.5 billion compared to Kshs 80.8 billion for the quarter ending 30th September 2012, a 14.5% increase.


Summary 2

• Demand for credit generally increased in most economic sectors, with cheaper credit and increasingly available investment opportunities being the main driving factors; less significant drivers were the retention of the Central Bank Rate in September 2013 at 8.5% and a more stable political environment.

• Credit standards remained largely unchanged across most economic sectors in Q3 of 2013. However, these tightened marginally for consumer loans but eased for trade loans.

• In Q4 of 2013, NPLs are expected to increase in the personal/ household loan category while declining in the Trade, Tourism, Building and Transport sectors.

• In Q4 of 2013, most banks intend to intensify recovery efforts in four sectors namely Personal/Household, Transport, Tourism and the Building sector.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, November 01, 2013 10:19 AM | Reason: Not specified
Ericsson
#44 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 10:41:38 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,819
Location: NAIROBI
@obiero;how did u arrive at Equity Q3 PBT at ksh.15.4B yet at Q2 the PBT was at ksh.8.95B.
Does it mean Equity will clock ksh.6.5B in the period July 1 to September 30.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Cde Monomotapa
#45 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 10:43:52 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
Cheers @mwekez@ji. Yup, certainly a 'U' recovery scenario for earnings. In my estimation, the point of inflection might be in March 2014.

Looking at KCB, the only trick to prop up FY '13 earnings might be tinkering provisions in lieu of recoveries in Q4. Otw, earnings growth y-o-y will either be flat or single digit. How investors will take the change in dividend policy is also an outlier.

Sector wide, it would be realistic to still expect a progressive uptake of loans in Q4, but not enough to offset the effects of declining rates on interest income. Hence, why I see the inflection in March 2014.

NBK's numbers should be interesting.
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  | | Edit by user: Friday, November 01, 2013 10:58 AM | Reason: Right..
obiero
#46 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 12:38:32 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,318
Location: nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
Cheers @mwekez@ji. Yup, certainly a 'U' recovery scenario for earnings. In my estimation, the point of inflection might be in March 2014.

Looking at KCB, the only trick to prop up FY '13 earnings might be tinkering provisions in lieu of recoveries in Q4. Otw, earnings growth y-o-y will either be flat or single digit. How investors will take the change in dividend policy is also an outlier.

Sector wide, it would be realistic to still expect a progressive uptake of loans in Q4, but not enough to offset the effects of declining rates on interest income. Hence, why I see the inflection in March 2014.

NBK's numbers should be interesting.

@ericsson.. equity did good business for county govs in q3, plus I js dont imagine it cld have a lower PBT compared to KCB given that the lion has started cookin figures js to save face. ask me for details on that claim
@cde thanks for accepting that the lion is wounded.. coop is eating crazy market share. most guys still dont believe that Family Bank has more clients than KCB. Equity, Coop too have about/more than double KCB's client base
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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VituVingiSana
#47 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 12:42:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,371
Location: Nairobi
@Obiero - Tell us more re: cooing by Simba

Family is an also-ran Equity. It will grow but huge number of small accounts so the topline growth may be slower. It's just that everyone & their grandma are in that space. Equity, KCB, Jamii Bora, etc... even CBA via M-Shwari.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ericsson
#48 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 12:54:09 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,819
Location: NAIROBI
@Obiero;R u aware that the current gava is not favouring Equity compared to the previous one.
As part of the ksh.5 B loan deal that Equity gave the former NCC;NCC was to transfer it's main a/c to Equity.This was reversed and the main account transferred to NBK which is a state owned bank while equity was private.Equity will have a lower PBT compared to KCB.Equity had a slow down in q1 versus q2.
R u not seeing CBA is the new equity in the UhuRuto gava.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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obiero
#49 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 1:34:46 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,318
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
@Obiero;R u aware that the current gava is not favouring Equity compared to the previous one.
As part of the ksh.5 B loan deal that Equity gave the former NCC;NCC was to transfer it's main a/c to Equity.This was reversed and the main account transferred to NBK which is a state owned bank while equity was private.Equity will have a lower PBT compared to KCB.Equity had a slow down in q1 versus q2.
R u not seeing CBA is the new equity in the UhuRuto gava.

You have a point on recent government dealings.. Even NSSF moved a number of its a/c from one of the big ones to NBK
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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obiero
#50 Posted : Friday, November 01, 2013 1:36:56 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,318
Location: nairobi
@ericsson. county govs have a free hand via governors in which bank they choose. money is changin hands at county level. need I explain who is most shrewd?
COOP, IMH, KEGN, KQ, MTNU
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