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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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guru267 wrote:I wasn't expecting to be able to get this share yesterday but Mr Market was ready to hand me some at 27bob...
The resistance here is simply fighting a losing battle... This thing will one day explode like crazy! I'm ragerly waiting for that explosion. I ought to add more to achieve the critical mass! The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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Weak demand(Even with good results).Touch resistance at 27-28 level.
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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jerry wrote:guru267 wrote:I wasn't expecting to be able to get this share yesterday but Mr Market was ready to hand me some at 27bob...
The resistance here is simply fighting a losing battle... This thing will one day explode like crazy! I'm ragerly waiting for that explosion. I ought to add more to achieve the critical mass! Yup true dat. Eps should be Kes 4 plus. NAV 22. Growth of 58% pa,one of the best in the market! However, looking at carb, people prefer bonus and splits with mediocre growth than good solid earnings growth. Nonetheless,made a neat bundle on carb thanks to that and exited. I also didn't expect to get in @ 26.50-27. Now the waiting begins Conservatively, I'm looking at 40-60bob per share. That would be a pe of 10-15.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,077 Location: Nairobi
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HFCK - The largest risk are the new Land Laws. We know in Kenya, that it takes little for 'additional' wives to show up AFTER the guy has died. Or kids. Or other claimants including extended family members and clansmen. Look at mutula kilonzo who impregnated an under-age girl. Now she has a kid and who is claiming a share of mutula's fortune. BTW, this is a muck-raking site but there may be truth to the story/claim. http://kahawatungu.com/2...daughter-of-his-worker/
Kirima Family - http://allafrica.com/stories/201306071728.html though now resolved after a court battle & a settlement. And many more which do not make the news. If the mortgagee dies or defaults, the Lender may have a tough time selling the 'ancestral land' or other property that has been provided as collateral. This may not affect new lending but most of the current mortgages were given prior to the new Land Laws coming into effect. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,077 Location: Nairobi
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A huge boost for HFCK but at what price? http://www.reuters.com/a...d-idUSL5N0IM0EG20131101
Kenyan mortgage financier Housing Finance has secured approval to issue a 20 billion shillings ($234.33 million) corporate bond, the market regulator said on Friday. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,484 Location: nairobi
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Metasploit wrote:Weak demand(Even with good results).Touch resistance at 27-28 level.
Expect KES 25 to be revisited as bigger players announce 'worthy' results.. Though growing, HF is not at full potential. Not even close.. Ireri has tried, but needs to do more
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,484 Location: nairobi
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Metasploit wrote:Weak demand(Even with good results).Touch resistance at 27-28 level.
Expect KES 25 to be revisited as bigger players announce 'worthy' results.. Though growing, HF is not at full potential. Not even close.. Ireri has tried, but needs to do more
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Obiero so KCBs miss is what ur talking about? Which other company is at a pe of 8, NAV very close to the market price, growing at a consistent 40%+ ? I personally hope it stagnates. Need to jaza proper!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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obiero wrote:Metasploit wrote:Weak demand(Even with good results).Touch resistance at 27-28 level.
Expect KES 25 to be revisited as bigger players announce 'worthy' results.. Though growing, HF is not at full potential. Not even close.. Ireri has tried, but needs to do more @Obiero. Don't be surprised to see HFCK back to 26.00-25.00, some times the market takes time to appreciate value generation. Ireri is doing a fantastic job and will still do more, how many other companies in the NSe can boast of 50% plus growth for 3 years ? Yes he can do more, and he will do more. What more can you ask of a CEO, look at his track record in numbers... HFCK PBT (millions) 2006- 127 2007- 131 2008- 196 2009- 354 2010- 560 2011- 975 2012- 907 2013- 1.3 billion (prediction, with estimate 50% growth) what more do you want from this man. That's 10 times growth in earnings over 8 yrs. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/25/2012 Posts: 4,105 Location: 08c
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CMA approves Ksh20billion Housing Finance Medium-Term NoteNairobi, November 01, 2013...The Capital Markets Authority (CMA) has granted approval to Housing Finance Limited to issue and list a medium term note of Ksh20 billion on the fixed income securities market segment of the Nairobi Securities Exchange........ Following review of the lender’s information memorandum, the Authority is satisfied that Housing Finance has made adequate disclosure of material information in accordance with the requirements of the Capital Markets Act, the Second Schedule and Part C of the Third Schedule to the Capital Markets (Securities) (Public Offers, Listing and Disclosures) Regulations, 2002, to enable investors make an informed decision on the programme. Housing Finance will be required to issue specific pricing supplements for each tranche of notes they will issue detailing the nature of the notes to be issued. Source: CMA Pesa Nane plans to be shilingi when he grows up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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now here is a company that u can see what they have done with the previous bond money. and the fact they are borrowing. means 20 b more worth of assets which if they grow at the current pace will better increased earnings in the next say five years. a crazy pe will be attached to this company in the next few years, wait and see ppl. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,484 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:Metasploit wrote:Weak demand(Even with good results).Touch resistance at 27-28 level.
Expect KES 25 to be revisited as bigger players announce 'worthy' results.. Though growing, HF is not at full potential. Not even close.. Ireri has tried, but needs to do more @Obiero. Don't be surprised to see HFCK back to 26.00-25.00, some times the market takes time to appreciate value generation. Ireri is doing a fantastic job and will still do more, how many other companies in the NSe can boast of 50% plus growth for 3 years ? Yes he can do more, and he will do more. What more can you ask of a CEO, look at his track record in numbers... HFCK PBT (millions) 2006- 127 2007- 131 2008- 196 2009- 354 2010- 560 2011- 975 2012- 907 2013- 1.3 billion (prediction, with estimate 50% growth) what more do want form this man. That's 10 times growth in earnings over 8 yrs. Please. Hii mtu haikuwa HFCK 2006-2009. Come clean.. Hata mimi nikipewa HFCK nitaipandisha PBT. Housing demand in Kenya is insatiable
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:Metasploit wrote:Weak demand(Even with good results).Touch resistance at 27-28 level.
Expect KES 25 to be revisited as bigger players announce 'worthy' results.. Though growing, HF is not at full potential. Not even close.. Ireri has tried, but needs to do more @Obiero. Don't be surprised to see HFCK back to 26.00-25.00, some times the market takes time to appreciate value generation. Ireri is doing a fantastic job and will still do more, how many other companies in the NSe can boast of 50% plus growth for 3 years ? Yes he can do more, and he will do more. What more can you ask of a CEO, look at his track record in numbers... HFCK PBT (millions) 2006- 127 2007- 131 2008- 196 2009- 354 2010- 560 2011- 975 2012- 907 2013- 1.3 billion (prediction, with estimate 50% growth) what more do want form this man. That's 10 times growth in earnings over 8 yrs. Please. Hii mtu haikuwa HFCK 2006-2009. Come clean.. Hata mimi nikipewa HFCK nitaipandisha PBT. Housing demand in Kenya is insatiable yes he was. he was appointed in July 2006. download 2006 annual report and see for yourself. www.housing.co.ke/index....re-price-a-annual-reportThe investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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CAGR from 2006-2011 is 41%!!! extrapolate this from 2012 to 2016, since housing demand mismatch and the pbt of 2016 could be. 5.2 billion if 975m is your base. gives eps of 22.75. value with pe of 12. target is 273.00. .....a ten bagger ceteris paribus esp CAGR. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Aguytrying wrote:CAGR from 2006-2011 is 41%!!! extrapolate this from 2012 to 2016, since housing demand mismatch and the pbt of 2016 could be. 5.2 billion if 975m is your base.
gives eps of 22.75.
value with pe of 12. target is 273.00.
.....a ten bagger ceteris paribus esp CAGR. Possible, ceteris paribus Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:CAGR from 2006-2011 is 41%!!! extrapolate this from 2012 to 2016, since housing demand mismatch and the pbt of 2016 could be. 5.2 billion if 975m is your base.
gives eps of 22.75.
value with pe of 12. target is 273.00.
.....a ten bagger ceteris paribus esp CAGR. Too bad some 'investors' on this forum are to short sighted..  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,077 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:Obiero so KCBs miss is what ur talking about? Which other company is at a pe of 8, NAV very close to the market price, growing at a consistent 40%+ ? I personally hope it stagnates. Need to jaza proper! PB = Price/NAV ... So, what is the PB? How 'close' is the PB to NAV? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,077 Location: Nairobi
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Horton wrote:NAV ios ~ 22 so pb 1.22 Oops! I thought you were referring to KCB... On HFCK, yes! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/30/2007 Posts: 1,558 Location: Nairobi
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Yep sorry. Egrish!!! Yep referring to HF
Me thinks eps should be 4bob so at 10-15pe prices should be 40-60bob come April. What u reckon?
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