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Housing Finance: HFCK a diamond in the rough
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,180 Location: nairobi
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@true aguy tell obiero you took charge after his exit. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,484 Location: nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:WaHande wrote:could it be a good buy at its current rate??
It is a good buy if you are comfortable with a return not exceeding 10% this year. It definitely cannot go beyond KES 30 before next year. I said the same in Q1 this year and some people tried to shut me up @former driver. how do you know it cant go beyond 30.00? how do you know? stocks can't be predicted with the certainty you are trying to employ here haha. yaani unaniita former driver. kuwa mpole.. sorry to appear too certain, indeed one cannot be 100% certain but I am 99.9% based on analysis of the charts plus macro environment in the mortgage subsector. i am a seasoned analyst who has only lost KES 48,250 since starting trade in 2006 at NSE where the same loss was fully recovered by gains in excess of 5million.. safaricom is the culprit share which I sold on panic
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:WaHande wrote:could it be a good buy at its current rate??
It is a good buy if you are comfortable with a return not exceeding 10% this year. It definitely cannot go beyond KES 30 before next year. I said the same in Q1 this year and some people tried to shut me up @former driver. how do you know it cant go beyond 30.00? how do you know? stocks can't be predicted with the certainty you are trying to employ here haha. yaani unaniita former driver. kuwa mpole.. sorry to appear too certain, indeed one cannot be 100% certain but I am 99.9% based on analysis of the charts plus macro environment in the mortgage subsector. i am a seasoned analyst who has only lost KES 48,250 since starting trade in 2006 at NSE where the same loss was fully recovered by gains in excess of 5million.. safaricom is the culprit share which I sold on panic I like your confidence, ive lost much more than that and gained much less than that but still trying. I agree that coop is headed somewhere. if we learn from each other the better. I for one believe your xchange bar, don't know why some are so bitter. cheers. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2012 Posts: 5,222
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obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:WaHande wrote:could it be a good buy at its current rate??
It is a good buy if you are comfortable with a return not exceeding 10% this year. It definitely cannot go beyond KES 30 before next year. I said the same in Q1 this year and some people tried to shut me up @former driver. how do you know it cant go beyond 30.00? how do you know? stocks can't be predicted with the certainty you are trying to employ here haha. yaani unaniita former driver. kuwa mpole.. sorry to appear too certain, indeed one cannot be 100% certain but I am 99.9% based on analysis of the charts plus macro environment in the mortgage subsector. i am a seasoned analyst who has only lost KES 48,250 since starting trade in 2006 at NSE where the same loss was fully recovered by gains in excess of 5million.. safaricom is the culprit share which I sold on panic When I grow up(in stocks) I want to talk like you! That is far much less than I've lost just this year! And I certainly haven't made anything close to your 5M
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,484 Location: nairobi
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Mukiri wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:WaHande wrote:could it be a good buy at its current rate??
It is a good buy if you are comfortable with a return not exceeding 10% this year. It definitely cannot go beyond KES 30 before next year. I said the same in Q1 this year and some people tried to shut me up @former driver. how do you know it cant go beyond 30.00? how do you know? stocks can't be predicted with the certainty you are trying to employ here haha. yaani unaniita former driver. kuwa mpole.. sorry to appear too certain, indeed one cannot be 100% certain but I am 99.9% based on analysis of the charts plus macro environment in the mortgage subsector. i am a seasoned analyst who has only lost KES 48,250 since starting trade in 2006 at NSE where the same loss was fully recovered by gains in excess of 5million.. safaricom is the culprit share which I sold on panic When I grow up(in stocks) I want to talk like you! That is far much less than I've lost just this year! And I certainly haven't made anything close to your 5M Dont get me wrong. There are times the value of stock in my portfolio has gone down. Its js that I rarely have short term trades. I have benefited from relatively high returns, mostly over 70%, by having called correct entry level on Kengen, Stanbic Uganda, HFCK, Bralirwa, Centum, KCB and rode them wisely for upto 3-4 years. Look at start date of this very thread as a basic example. For now, my chips are solidly on KQ..
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: User Joined: 9/6/2013 Posts: 1,446 Location: In a house
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obiero wrote:Mukiri wrote:obiero wrote:Aguytrying wrote:obiero wrote:WaHande wrote:could it be a good buy at its current rate??
It is a good buy if you are comfortable with a return not exceeding 10% this year. It definitely cannot go beyond KES 30 before next year. I said the same in Q1 this year and some people tried to shut me up @former driver. how do you know it cant go beyond 30.00? how do you know? stocks can't be predicted with the certainty you are trying to employ here haha. yaani unaniita former driver. kuwa mpole.. sorry to appear too certain, indeed one cannot be 100% certain but I am 99.9% based on analysis of the charts plus macro environment in the mortgage subsector. i am a seasoned analyst who has only lost KES 48,250 since starting trade in 2006 at NSE where the same loss was fully recovered by gains in excess of 5million.. safaricom is the culprit share which I sold on panic When I grow up(in stocks) I want to talk like you! That is far much less than I've lost just this year! And I certainly haven't made anything close to your 5M Dont get me wrong. There are times the value of stock in my portfolio has gone down. Its js that I rarely have short term trades. I have benefited from relatively high returns, mostly over 70%, by having called correct entry level on Kengen, Stanbic Uganda, HFCK, Bralirwa, Centum, KCB and rode them wisely for upto 3-4 years. Look at start date of this very thread as a basic example. For now, my chips are solidly on KQ.. Who is your broker?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,484 Location: nairobi
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the brokers i can recommend, based on personal experience and more importantly, peace of mind: Uganda - Africa Alliance Rwanda - KCB Kenya - KCB
HF 30,000 ABP 3.49; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/21/2013 Posts: 427
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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excellent performance the diamond continues to shine. we are still on course for 1bn PAT for fy 2013. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,180 Location: nairobi
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Special dividend and bonus come year end. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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With the good performance what is the PE now?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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heri wrote:With the good performance what is the PE now? PE: 6.91 Assuming a fy 2103 eps 0f 3.80 Last year Eps was 3.22. Trailing PE is 8.15. Early 2011 Hfck was trading at a PE of 18.03. Had an eps of 1.65 from fy 2010. was trading around 30.00. If we price HFCK at a PE of 11.00 and Eps of 3.80 Target price is 41.8 shillings. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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It seems it won't appreciate till I offload my shares! The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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with such a low PE why is the share not appreciating?
Is it not very cheap at the current price?
what is the fair value of the share?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:With the good performance what is the PE now? PE: 6.91 Assuming a fy 2103 eps 0f 3.80 Last year Eps was 3.22. Trailing PE is 8.15. Early 2011 Hfck was trading at a PE of 18.03. Had an eps of 1.65 from fy 2010. was trading around 30.00. The EPS as at end of Q3 is already 3.9,the full year will be northwards of 4.0.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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cnn wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:With the good performance what is the PE now? PE: 6.91 Assuming a fy 2103 eps 0f 3.80 Last year Eps was 3.22. Trailing PE is 8.15. Early 2011 Hfck was trading at a PE of 18.03. Had an eps of 1.65 from fy 2010. was trading around 30.00. The EPS as at end of Q3 is already 3.9,the full year will be northwards of 4.0. 3.9 is an extrapolation to fy 2013. The actual eps for Q3 is 676m(PAT)/230m(shares)= 2.94. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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Aguytrying wrote:cnn wrote:Aguytrying wrote:heri wrote:With the good performance what is the PE now? PE: 6.91 Assuming a fy 2103 eps 0f 3.80 Last year Eps was 3.22. Trailing PE is 8.15. Early 2011 Hfck was trading at a PE of 18.03. Had an eps of 1.65 from fy 2010. was trading around 30.00. The EPS as at end of Q3 is already 3.9,the full year will be northwards of 4.0. 3.9 is an extrapolation to fy 2013. The actual eps for Q3 is 676m(PAT)/230m(shares)= 2.94. Thanks @Aguy...i should have done my homework.
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Rank: Member Joined: 9/14/2011 Posts: 834 Location: nairobi
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why is the price stagnant at 25-26 for so long?
Not that am complaining since i bought mine last year at sh 16 in Oct 2012 which gives me a good return todate (60%)
But i hope there is nothing other people are seeing which am not?
I only hope the NPLs will not have a big hit for the full year audited results
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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the ceo said the npls will start to reduce next year as gov speeds up the process of reclaiming mortgages. whatever is holding the share back doesn't matter. one time certain share will be all the talk in the town like saf, centum etc. hfck will get it's day. there was a time it was trading at a pe of 18 in early 2011. if that was the case now that would be like 68.00 now. then ppl would ask what are we not seeing and may even try to push it to 100.00. disclaimer: biased I own hfck shares The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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I wasn't expecting to be able to get this share yesterday but Mr Market was ready to hand me some at 27bob... The resistance here is simply fighting a losing battle... This thing will one day explode like crazy! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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